Part 3. Multivariate road safety models: Future research orientations and current use to forecast performance

The third part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the future of road safety modeling and on conjectures concerning the evolution of national safety indicators. In the absence of econometric developments specific to road safety modeling, the research future must rely on pre-existing statistical procedures of econometrics applied to discrete/count and to aggregate data. In terms of contents, growing interest in the heterogeneity of road accident outcomes by category of victims could lead to treatments of this issue across research streams, say by top-down and bottom-up developments, but this speculation does not rest on extant adequate formulations of the issue of road user class and victim analysis. But understanding the time profile of aggregate national performance indicators is quite another matter.     

Valuing casualty risk reductions from estimated baseline risk

Stated choice studies have been applied regularly to the valuation of time savings and other attributes of travelling as perceived by individuals. In such experiments, respondents often provide reference levels for the attributes and the hypothetical choices presented to them are pivoted around actual behaviour. However, most individuals are not able to provide reference levels for the number of casualties on the road they travel. Thus, if valuation of this important element is attempted, it is the researcher who must provide casualty risk reference levels to the respondents. Some studies have applied route choice experiments including a safety attribute but the majority has been limited to only one particular road section with a common baseline risk for all respondents.     

A DEA study of the efficiency of 122 iron ore and coal ports and of 15/17 countries in 2005

This paper, using data envelopment analysis, assesses the efficiency of 122 iron ore and coal ports in 2005. Estimates for 54 loading and 68 unloading ports show that the main source of inefficiency in bulk terminals is related to the scale. Results aggregated at a country level demonstrate that the national efficiency can be achieved either through a limited number of large ports or by combining smaller ports with complementary characteristics—national network effect.     

沥青混合料烟雾与材料力学性能之间的关系

着重于研究热拌沥青混合料生产过程中产生的烟雾与沥青力学性能之间的关系,涉及的影响因素有温度、沥青种类以及一些动力学参数。研究者在试验室拌和机上安装了气体取样设备,能够在正常拌和的同时对热拌沥青混合料烟雾中的多环芳香烃(PAH)以及有机化合物(TOC)进行取样分析。通过对沥青材料进行室内性能指标的测试,发现在所有指标中回收沥青的复合模量与沥青烟雾排放量的相关性最好,因为它的结果同时反映了材料的物理性能以及沥青氧化和老化的程度。同时还建立了热拌沥青混合料烟雾排放与拌和参数以及混合料力学性能之间的关系。     

The multi‐actor,multi‐criteria analysis methodology (MAMCA) for the evaluation of transport projects: Theory and practice

In this paper the multi‐actor multi‐criteria analysis (MAMCA) method to evaluate transport projects is presented. This evaluation method specifically focuses on the inclusion of qualitative as well as quantitative criteria with their relative importance, defined by the multiple stakeholders, into one comprehensive evaluation process in order to facilitate the decision making process by the different stakeholders. The MAMCA methodology is introduced by an overview of other evaluation methods for transport projects in the past and is illustrated by means of two practical cases. The introduction will lead us to the theoretical conception of the MAMCA method where we draw the attention to the proven usefulness of the MAMCA for the evaluation of transport projects and the inclusion of different kinds of stakeholders, individuals as well as groups, into the evaluation process.     

宜巴高速公路界岭隧道横洞进正洞挑顶施工方案比选

宜巴高速公路界岭隧道施工中,由于复杂的地质状况和处理坍塌历时过长,整个隧道工程严重滞后建设项目工期。因此,决定增设横洞,从横洞向正洞掘进,增加主洞工作面,以满足项目建设进度要求。文章详细介绍了增设横洞两种方案的施工工艺,在技术可行、经济合理基础上,针对界岭隧道横洞垂直贯穿进入正洞和曲线渐变过渡施工转入正洞的施工方案进行了分析对比。     

Accommodating user preferences in ad hoc shared ride trip planning using GIS

Ad hoc shared ride trip planning (SRTP) utilizes mobile devices, geo-sensors and wireless networks to match on-the-fly individual travel demand with transport supply. It represents one of many alternatives to single occupancy vehicle use. This paper outlines a SRTP approach via a two-phase algorithm based on user preferences in a time-dependent routing. Whereas current algorithms use minimization of travel time as the only optimization criterion in trip planning, in the framework presented here, the user can specify multiple trip preferences including travel time, walking time, number of transfers between cars and trip length. Various scenarios are simulated in the city of Tehran (Iran) to demonstrate how preference settings affect the routes of ad hoc shared journeys.     

Stockholm congestion charging: an assessment with METROPOLIS and SILVESTER

This paper reviews and compares the performance of two dynamic transportation models – METROPOLIS and SILVESTER – which are used to predict the impacts of congestion charging for Stockholm. Both are mesoscopic dynamic models treating accumulation and dissipation of traffic queues, route choice, modal split and departure time choice. The models are calibrated independently for the baseline situation without charges and applied to forecast the effects of congestion charging. The results obtained from the two models are mutually compared and validated against the actual outcome of the Stockholm congestion charging scheme. Both models successfully predict the outcomes of the congestion charging trial at both aggregate and disaggregate levels. Results of welfare analysis, however, differ substantially due to differences in model specification.     

Towards a standardized European road network database

Many Driver Information Systems, especially those that provide location information and route guidance instruction, rely on some form of digital map data, i.e. data that represent the location and other properties of earth-bound objects. A deeperinformation analysis of the data needs of the systems reveals that many needs are very close to the demands that a human navigator makes on a classical paper map. But it also reveals some hidden needs, which relate to the fact that the current Driver Information Systems have only a very poor or no general knowledge. Gathering all these data, putting them into a database and keeping them up to date is an enormous task. Therefore it is very important to know whatsurveying and digitizing techniques are the most suitable for such data. This question is currently being investigated by two DRIVE projects, PANDORA and Task Force EDRM.To guarantee the efficiency of a road network database and to guarantee the exchangeability of traffic messages, a certainstandardization will be inevitable. One possibility is to standardize the finished article, i.e. the map data in the form in which they are represented on the medium used by the system itself (e.g. CD, coded beacon message). This is the solution that has been chosen in Japan, where a CD-ROM based standard has been defined. It is also the solution chosen by the European manufacturers of beacon-supported systems such as Autoguide and LISB, who have defined a standard for the road-vehicle communication link. Another possibility is to standardize the semi-manufactured article, i.e. the map data as they occur in a general purpose road database or in the datafiles produced by data suppliers. This solution has been chosen by Bosch and Philips and had led to their GDF, in which they define a standard data content, a data model and an exhange format for these files. If the systems are going to combine data coming from different sources, the need arises for standard reference numbers. This means that an organizational infrastructure will have to be set up to create and maintain such a reference numbering system. A road database that is kept up to date, represents a lot of money. It will be vitally important for such databases to be legally protected against copying activities.     

A two-layer model of the Rhine plume

The outflow of Rhine water into the shallow Southern Bight of the North Sea leads to almost discontinuous vertical density distributions and sharp frontal structures around the river mouth. Strong tidal motion, wind and baroclinic effects have large influence on the dynamics and dispersion of river water. A three-dimensional tidal model, including advective and diffusive transport of salinity, is used in the two-layer mode for simulation of Rhine water outflow to quantify the interaction of the different processes and the effect on dispersion and mixing of river water. Layer depths are adjusted in a way that no advective transports between upper and lower layer take place in case of sufficiently stable stratification. In case of weak or no stratification the upper layer depth is fixed, and advective transports between layers are computed. Model results show frontal eddy development and (limited) growing internal waves due to baroclinic instability. Comparisons with observational data are presented.