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91.
Guerrero Thomas E. Guevara C. Angelo Cherchi Elisabetta Ortúzar Juan de Dios 《Transportation》2021,48(4):2081-2102
Transportation - Endogeneity is a potential anomaly in econometric models, which may cause inconsistent parameter estimates. Transport models are prone to this problem and applications that... 相似文献
92.
Marne Lieggio Junior Sérgio Ronaldo Granemann Osmar Ambrósio de Souza Carlos Henrique Rocha 《运输规划与技术》2013,36(7):677-696
Abstract This article applies a methodology for selecting carriers for the transportation of dangerous goods by road, with a special focus on risk management aspects. The methodology makes use of Stated Preference techniques and verifies the most critical risk-related variables influencing decision-making from the shippers' point of view. It embraces the planning and execution stages, an evaluation of the contracted company and a feedback process. The methodology was effectively applied to the case of liquid fuel shippers in the Brazilian middle-west region where it proved possible to identify which dangerous goods road transport company to contract in accordance with the risk management factors selected by the decision makers. 相似文献
93.
ABSTRACTGovernments require decision tools to deal with road traffic accidents, a pandemic resulting in millions of deaths around the world. Evidence shows that human factors are one of the major causes of road accidents, and there is much interest in identifying variables that may have an impact on drivers’ perception of risk. To this aim, we design a stated choice experiment with eight hypothetical driving scenarios considering attributes that have been strongly associated with increased accident risks: (i) driving speed, (ii) driving the wrong way in a one-way street, (iii) overtaking on a bend, and (iv) driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs. Data from a sample of survey respondents are used to estimate a hybrid discrete choice model incorporating two latent variables, Driver Concentration and Safe Driving. Our results may contribute to the design of public policies geared to prevent accidents by encouraging safer driving behaviour. 相似文献
94.
In transportation projects, uncertainty related to the difference between forecast and actual demand is of major interest for the decision-maker, as it can have a substantial influence on the viability of a project. This paper identifies and quantifies discrete choice model uncertainty, which is present in the model parameters and attributes, and determines its impact on risk taking for decision-making applied to a case study of the High-Speed Rail project in Portugal. The methodology includes bootstrapping for the parameter variation, a postulated triangular distribution for the mode-specific input and a probabilistic graphical model for the socio-economic input variation. In comparison to point estimates, the findings for mode shift results in a wider swing in the system, which constitutes valuable information for decision-makers. The methodology, findings and conclusions presented in this study can be generalized to projects involving similar models. 相似文献
95.
Although panels offer significant advantages over cross sectional data especially in terms of evaluating the effects of significant
policy changes, there are precious few examples of panels built around an important change to an urban transport system. For
this reason we took the opportunity of the introduction of Transantiago, a radically new public transport system for Santiago
de Chile in February 2007, to form a panel, the first wave of which was taken in December 2006. The final objective was to
use this Santiago Panel to estimate mode choice models considering both inertia and policy effects. This document describes both the design and construction
of the panel, and presents some results based on an analysis of its four waves; for example, we registered a high percentage
of mode change (55.1%) attributable to the introduction of the new system. The panel can claim the highest response rate (or
lowest attrition) reported in the literature (95% in the second wave, 92% in the third one, and 85% in the forth one). This
hints at the possibility of developing sophisticated models to evaluate the effects of a system shock in the presence of inertia
in decision making. 相似文献
96.
97.
Abstract Individual choices are affected by complex factors and the challenge consists of how to incorporate these factors in order to improve the realism of the modelling work. The presence of limits, cut‐offs or thresholds in the perception and appraisal of both attributes and alternatives is part of the complexity inherent to choice‐making behaviour. The paper considers the existence of thresholds in three contexts: inertia (habit or reluctance to change), minimum perceptible changes in attribute values, and as a mechanism for accepting or rejecting alternatives. It discusses the more relevant approaches in modelling these types of thresholds and analyses their implications in model estimation and forecasting using both synthetic and real databanks. It is clear from the analysis that if thresholds exist but are not considered, the estimated models will be biased and may produce significant errors in prediction. Fortunately, there are practical methods to attack this problem and some are demonstrated. 相似文献
98.
M.F. Yáñez S. Raveau J. de D. Ortúzar 《Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice》2010,44(9):744-753
Travel demand models typically use mainly objective modal attributes as explanatory variables. Nevertheless, it has been well known for many years that attitudes and perceptions also influence users’ behaviour. The use of hybrid discrete choice models constitutes a good alternative to incorporate the effect of subjective factors. We estimated hybrid models in a short-survey panel context for data among many alternatives. The paper analyses the results of applying these models to a real urban case study, and also proposes an approach to forecasting using these models. Our results show that hybrid models are clearly superior to even highly flexible traditional models that ignore the effect of subjective attitudes and perceptions. 相似文献
99.
100.
J. Enrique Fernández L. Joaquín de Cea Ch G. Germán Valverde 《Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice》2009,43(5):481-499
The effect of the application of advanced transport information system (ATIS) and road pricing is studied in a transportation system under non-recurrent congestion. A stochastic network deterministic user equilibrium model (SNDUE) with elastic demand is formulated and used to evaluate the welfare and private impacts of different market penetrations of ATIS, together with road pricing for a simple network. Both marginal first-best road pricing and a second-best fixed road pricing are considered. The incentives of private users to use ATIS are analyzed and the characteristics of optimum tolls as a function of ATIS market penetration are shown. We conclude that ATIS is an efficient and necessary tool to reduce the effects of non-recurrent incidents in a transportation network, especially when non-recurrent congestion causes a significant deterioration of operational conditions of the network. If the impact of non-recurrent incidents on free flow costs is small or is reduced only to congestion effects, the use of road pricing would be more efficient. Social benefits obtained when jointly implementing ATIS and road pricing are practically the same whether first-best or second-best road pricing is used. Considering the private costs perceived by the network users, and the benefits experienced by equipped users, the maximum level of market penetration achieved could be limited because private benefits disappear after certain market penetration is obtained. 相似文献