A study of rail demand in a two‐tier fares environment

A method based on logit analysis is suggested for predicting the effects on patronage and revenue of relative changes in peak and offpeak fares. The method also permits the ready estimation of consequent changes in service profitability. Data was collected specifically for this study from British Rail's Teesside corridor to achieve model calibration. Results show the extent to which demand in peak and offpeak fare‐periods is complementary when fare restrictions are applied only to the morning peak.     

Acoustic excitation of hull surfaces by propeller sources

We present preliminary results from our new ship motion model that includes both strong and weak three-dimensional interactions between environmental surface waves and ship bodies in arbitrary water depth. The linear solutions of steady flow using the new model agree well with those obtained using the Green function methods. When the Froude number Fn is large, the fully nonlinear solutions of our model are significantly different from linear solutions, even in calm water. The interactions between the ship and incident gravity waves are completely different from those in linear solutions even with small Fn and moderate-amplitude surface waves (e.g., Fn = 0.25 and a significant wave height of about 1–3m).     

The allocation of buses in heavily utilized networks with overlapping routes

Many transit systems outside North America are characterized by networks with extensively overlapping routes and buses frequently operating at, or close to, capacity. This paper addresses the problem of allocating a fleet of buses between routes in this type of system; a problem that must be solved recurrently by transit planners. A formulation of the problem is developed which recognizes passenger route choice behavior, and seeks to minimize a function of passenger wait time and bus crowding subject to constraints on the number of buses available and the provision of enough capacity on each route to carry all passengers who would select it. An algorithm is developed based on the decomposition of the problem into base allocation and surplus allocation components. The base allocation identifies a feasible solution using an (approx.) minimum number of buses. The surplus allocation is illustrated for the simple objective of minimizing the maximum crowding level on any route. The bus allocation procedure developed in this paper has been applied to part of the Cairo bus system in a completely manual procedure, and is proposed to be the central element of a short-range bus service planning process for that city.     

Well-to-wake energy and greenhouse gas analysis of SOX abatement options for the marine industry

This paper investigates the well-to-wake energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of several key SO_X abatement options in marine transportation, ranging from the manufacture of low sulfur fuels to equipping the vessel with suitable scrubber solutions. The findings suggest that a scrubber system, used with current heavy fuel oils, has the potential to reduce SO_X emissions with lower well-to-wake energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions than switching to production of low sulfur fuels at the refinery. A sensitivity analysis covering a series of system parameters shows that variations in the well-to-tank greenhouse gas emissions intensity and the energy efficiency of the main engine have the highest impacts in terms of well-to-wake emissions.     

Combining technology development and behaviour change to meet CO2 cumulative emission budgets for road transport: Case studies for the USA and Europe

Global temperature rise over the long term will be proportional to the total amount of CO₂ emitted. Any given probability of exceeding a targeted maximum temperature rise implies a maximum limit on the cumulative total of CO₂ that can be emitted: a CO₂ “budget”. This paper describes an approach to modelling cumulative emissions from light and heavy duty road transport from the present to 2050, focussing on the USA and Europe, and comparing the potential impacts of a range of technological and behaviourally-based abatement measures with such cumulative emissions budgets.The model shows that abatement measures would have a lower effect on cumulative emissions from 2000 to 2050 than on annual emissions in 2050, so that focussing only on annual emissions could be misleading. It shows that technological developments would be insufficient on their own to enable Europe and the USA to meet CO₂ budgets for road transport. Behavioural changes, which potentially can be implemented much sooner, would be essential too. There is potential to keep European light duty emissions very close to CO₂ budgets, and US light duty emissions not far above the least restrictive budget, but the model predicts that heavy duty emissions in both regions are likely to exceed their CO₂ budgets. Deeper emissions reductions in other regions and sectors will be needed to compensate for this. Timing would be critical: for the greatest impact, behaviour change policies and interventions would need to be applied early and deeply.     

Performance modelling of patient flow scheduling through a formal method

Smart environment is being used in many areas to deliver more services to individuals in a physical space, such as a hospital. In the UK, the National Health Service (NHS) provides free and high quality healthcare service for all residents. Smart hospital environment is able to support NHS and provide more convenience. Patient flow scheduling is a crucial section in a smart hospital environment. Smart hospital environment aims to provide a smart environment in the hospital to facilitate individual experience and improve the quality of healthcare service. First of all, this paper investigates a real world patient flow scenario of a hospital in the UK and models a general scheduling scheme based on the scenario using a compositional formal approach, i.e. performance evaluation process algebra (PEPA). This scheduling scheme uses an easy-implemented solution (the grouping scheme) to reduce the waiting queue in the hospital. Secondly, fluid flow analysis is used for the performance analysis by generating a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in terms of the PEPA model.     

A comparative study on the structural integrity of single and double side skin bulk carriers under collision damage

The primary aim of the present study is to investigate the collision resistance and residual strength of single side skin (SSS) and double side skin (DSS) bulk carriers subject to collision damage. The impact dynamics analyses were conducted using ANSYS LS-DYNA for the evaluation resistance forces, energy absorption and penetration depth for various collision scenarios. The struck vessels of Capsize SSS and DSS designs were assumed to be entirely standstill and the striking vessels of an Aframax-type oil tanker with different bulbous bow shapes were modeled as rigid bodies. The findings were compared, where possible, with existing analytical tools. Residual strength calculations on SSS and DSS vessels were computed corresponding to all considered collision damage scenarios. Traditional Smith's method was applied with the average stress — average strain relationships of elements based on derived semi - analytically. The effect of corrosion was also evaluated by Joint Bulker Project (JBP) Rules on the influence of plate and stiffener thickness. The safety of the vessels was determined as a ratio of the ultimate hull girder strength to bending moment in damaged condition. Finally, results and insights derived from the present work are summarized.     

基于切口应力强度理论的135°拐角处应力场分析

在焊接接头处,几何的不连续造成了局部的应力集中,形成了应力奇异效应,有必要做进一步的研究。文章基于切口应力强度理论,引入了奇异强度as的概念,提出了评估切口应力的简便算法,并通过一系列十字形模型进行了验证。最后,将修改表达式的预估结果同N-SIF公式作了对比分析,结果表明该修正公式可以简单、准确地预估焊接接头处的应力。