Flexible long range planning using low cost information

Contemporary transport planning requires a flexible modelling approach which can be used to monitor the implementation of a long term plan checking regularly its short term performance with easily available data; the original model is periodically updated using low cost information and this allows the evaluation of the changes to the plan which may be required. Such an approach requires models suited to regular updating and to the use of data from different sources. Models to update trip matrices from traffic counts have been available for some time; however, the estimation and/or updating of other model stages with low cost data has escaped analytical treatment. The paper discusses this idea and formulates the updating problem for an example involving a joint destination/mode choice model under various assumptions about the nature of the available data. Analytical solutions are proposed as well as some general conclusions.requests for offprints     

Seasonality of picophytoplankton chlorophyll a and biomass in the central Cantabrian Sea, southern Bay of Biscay

Seasonal changes in the abundance and biomass of cyanobacteria (Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus) and picoeukaryotes were studied by flow cytometry in the upper layers of the central Cantabrian Sea continental shelf, from April 2002 to April 2006. The study area displayed the typical hydrographic conditions of temperate coastal zones. A marked seasonality of the relative contribution of prokaryotes and eukaryotes was found. While cyanobacteria were generally more abundant for most of the year (up to 2.4 10⁵ cells mL^− 1), picoeukaryotes dominated the community (up to 10⁴ cells mL^− 1) from February to May. The disappearance of Prochlorococcus from spring through summer is likely related to shifts in the prevailing current regime. The maximum total abundance of picophytoplankton was consistently found in late summer–early autumn. Mean photic-layer picoplanktonic chlorophyll a ranged from 0.06 to 0.53 µg L^− 1 with a relatively high mean contribution to total values (33 ± 2% SE), showing maxima around autumn and minima in spring. Biomass (range 0.58–40.16 mg C m^− 3) was generally dominated by picoeukaryotes (mean ± SE, 4.28 ± 0.27 mg C m^− 3) with an average contribution of cyanobacteria of 30 ± 2%. Different seasonality of pigment and biomass values resulted in a clear temporal pattern of picophytoplanktonic carbon to chlorophyll a ratio, which ranged from 10 (winter) to 140 (summer). This study highlights the important contribution of picoplanktonic chlorophyll a and carbon biomass in this coastal ecosystem.     

A new methodology for incident detection and characterization on surface streets

In this paper, a new methodology is presented for real-time detection and characterization of incidents on surface streets. The proposed automatic incident detection approach is capable of detecting incidents promptly as well as characterizing incidents in terms of time-varying lane-changing fractions and queue lengths in blocked lanes, lanes blocked due to incidents, and incident duration. The architecture of the proposed incident detection approach consists of three sequential procedures: (1) Symptom Identification for identification of incident symptoms, (2) Signal Processing for real-time prediction of incident-related lane traffic characteristics and (3) Pattern Recognition for incident recognition. Lane traffic counts and occupancy are the only two major types of input data, which can be readily collected from point detectors. The primary techniques utilized in this paper include: (1) a discrete-time, nonlinear, stochastic system with boundary constraints to predict real-time lane-changing fractions and queue lengths and (2) a pattern-recognition-based algorithm employing modified sequential probability ratio tests (MSPRT) to detect incidents. Off-line tests based on simulated as well as video-based real data were conducted to assess the performance of the proposed algorithm. The test results have indicated the feasibility of achieving real-time incident detection using the proposed methodology.     

Scheduling short-term marine transport of bulk products

A multinational company uses a personal computer to schedule a fleet of coastal tankers and barges transporting liquid bulk products among plants, distribution centres (tank farms), and industrial customers. A simple spreadsheet interface cloaks a sophisticated optimization-based decision support system and makes this system useable via a varity of natural languages. The dispatchers, whose native language is not English, and some of whom presumably speak no English at all, communicate via the spreadsheet, and view recommended schedules displayed in Gantt charts both internationally familiar tools. Inside the spreadsheet, a highly detailed simulation can generate every feasible alternate vessel employment schedule, and an integer linear set partitioning model selects one schedule for each vessel so that all loads and deliveries are completed at minimal cost while satisfying all operational requirements. The optimized fleet employment schedule is displyed graphically with hourly time resolution over a planning horizon of 2-3 weeks. Each vessel will customarily make several voyages and many port calls to load and unload products during this time.     

Spatial fisheries ecology: Recent progress and future prospects

We review recent progresses made in the study of fish distribution and survival over space — i.e., fisheries spatial ecology. This is achieved by first surveying the most common statistical approaches and relative challenges associated with the analysis of fisheries spatial data, loosely grouped in geostatistical and regression approaches. Then we review a selected number of case-studies implementing the discussed techniques. We conclude by proposing new areas of statistical and ecological research to further our understanding of how fish distribute and survive in space. This review serves a dual purpose by emphasizing the scientific importance of studying spatial interactions to better understand the temporal dynamics of fish abundance, and by promoting the development of new analytical and ecological approaches for the analysis of spatial data. Through our survey we cover different statistical techniques, marine ecosystems and life stages. This analytical, geographic and ontogenetic variety is also purposely selected to highlight the importance of comparative and multidisciplinary studies across diverging ecological disciplines, ecosystems and life stages. Besides having a general ecological relevance this review also bears a more applied significance, owing to the increasing need for protecting renewable marine resources along with their primary habitat.     

The economics of technological change in shipping

Management of technological change is among the most important problems in shipping management. Models representing the economic impact of technological change in shipping are presented and the use of technology productivity analysis as a method for effective management of technological change in shipping is proposed.     

Spatial variability of the barotropic M2 constituent tidal current over the Rías Baixas Galician shelf (NW Spain)

Using current meters and systematically repeated vessel mounted ADCP data legs, we describe the role of the semidiurnal and diurnal constituents in the tidal currents and investigate the mesoscale variability of the M₂ tidal currents field along three cross-shelf legs over the Galician shelf. We found that the estimated values of the semi-major axes of the main semidiurnal tidal constituents are closely related to those obtained in previous research and that the tidal currents are predominantly semidiurnal. Amplitudes of the M₂ and S₂ semi-major axes constituents are comparable, and important fortnightly variability should thus be expected in the amplitude of the semidiurnal tidal currents. Vertical profiles of the semi-major axes of the main tidal constituents reveal that, in the absence of stratification, and far from the bottom frictional effects, the tidal currents are mostly barotropic. Over the slope, the tidal ellipses tilt from a north–south orientation toward the northeast–southwest direction and, as we go further into the shelf, their amplitude is increased, a feature that is reasonably explained by the transition from the dynamics of a Poincaré wave offshore to the dynamics of a northward alongshore propagating Kelvin wave over the shelf. The Ría de Vigo exerts a notable influence over the tidal currents, acting as an extension of the shelf and introducing a meridional variation in the orientation of the ellipses from the alongshore direction in the southern straight coast toward the northeast–southwest direction at the latitude of the Rías. Finally, the spatial fitting methods we tried have proved to be successful in VMADCP data detiding in this region.     

Factors affecting the environmental impact of pavement wear

Wear at the interface between flexible pavements and tires influences pavement life, pavement cycle costs, and tire consumption, and is a source of environmental harm. Wear-related processes evolve over time and are affected by a number of boundary conditions, such as interface fluids, water and fuels. We develop a model explaining and predicting mass losses in flexible pavements under carefully controlled conditions, and with estimation of the related environmental costs. We also employed an accelerated loading test. Under normal conditions, the environmental impact of pavement wear is not greatly influenced by mix type or volumetrics. Indeed, the presence of hazmat materials, traditional, dense mixes have an environmental impact that is appreciably lower than that of porous European mixes.