Forecasting front displacements with a satellite based ocean forecasting (SOFT) system

Relatively long term time series of satellite data are nowadays available. These spatio–temporal time series of satellite observations can be employed to build empirical models, called satellite based ocean forecasting (SOFT) systems, to forecast certain aspects of future ocean states. The forecast skill of SOFT systems predicting the sea surface temperature (SST) at sub-basin spatial scale (from hundreds to thousand kilometres), has been extensively explored in previous works. Thus, these works were mostly focussed on predicting large scale patterns spatially stationary. At spatial scales smaller than sub-basin (from tens to hundred kilometres), spatio–temporal variability is more complex and propagating structures are frequently present. In this case, traditional SOFT systems based on Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decompositions could not be optimal prediction systems. Instead, SOFT systems based on Complex Empirical Orthogonal Functions (CEOFs) are, a priori, better candidates to resolve these cases.In this work we study and compare the performance of an EOF and CEOF based SOFT systems forecasting the SST at weekly time scales of a propagating mesoscale structure. The SOFT system was implemented in an area of the Northern Balearic Sea (Western Mediterranean Sea) where a moving frontal structure is recurrently observed. Predictions from both SOFT systems are compared with observations and with the predictions obtained from persistence models. Results indicate that the implemented SOFT systems are superior in terms of predictability to persistence. No substantial differences have been found between the EOF and CEOF-SOFT systems.     

Data assimilation into a Princeton Ocean Model of the Mediterranean Sea using advanced Kalman filters

This study investigates the effectiveness of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman filter (SEEK) and its variants (SEIK and SFEK filters) for data assimilation into a Princeton Ocean Model (POM) of the Mediterranean Sea. The SEEK filters are sub-optimal Kalman filters based on the approximation of the filter's error covariance matrices by singular low-rank matrices, reducing in this way extensive computational burden. At the initialization, the filters error covariance matrix is parameterized by a set of multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) which describe the dominant modes of the system's variability. The Mediterranean model is implemented on a 1/4° × 1/4° horizontal grid with 25 sigma levels and is forced with 6-hour ECMWF re-analysis atmospheric data. Several twin experiments, in which pseudo-observations of altimetric data and/or data profiles were assimilated, were first performed to evaluate the filters performances and to study their sensitivities to different parameters and setups. The results of these experiments were very encouraging and helped in setting up an effective configuration for the assimilation of real data in near-real time situation. In the hindcast experiments, Topex/Poseidon and ERS weekly sea level anomaly data were first assimilated during 1993 and the filters solution was evaluated against independent Reynolds sea surface temperature (SST) analysis. The assimilation system was able to significantly enhance the consistency between the model and the assimilated data, although the improvement with respect to independent SST data was significantly less pronounced. The model SST was only improved after including SST data in the assimilation system.     

Technical Note: Force Control in Electrohydraulic Active Suspensions Revisited

The inner loop control for the actuator force can be quite simply compensated by means of a correction term to the desired force signal at the input. The correction requires only a measurement of the actuator piston velocity and is employed to cancel the loop disturbance caused by the oil flow to the actuator. Although an additional time constant is introduced by the integration in the inner loop force control, the overall performance is nevertheless quite close to that of an ideal optimal system.     

How much disruption to activities could fuel shortages cause? – The British fuel crisis of September 2000

In September of 2000 the UK experienced a blockade of oil refineries in response to rising fuel prices. These protests resulted in severe fuel supply disruptions that intensified over the course of about one week. During the peak of the crisis, travel activity by car was curtailed. This paper analyzes survey data collected about two months after the crisis utilizing the recent memory of respondents as to how they would expect this sort of disruption to affect their participation in daily activities. Specifically, we focused on a variety of non-discretionary and discretionary activities and examined what factors are associated with respondents expecting disruption to those activities. Statistical models were developed to analyze how demographic factors, commute mode selection, vehicle characteristics, and various other factors can explain how individuals expect disruption to their activities. Results suggest that the majority of individuals do not expect major disruptions, although for more car-dependent individuals, disruption was expected to be substantial, especially for work-related trips. These results have implications for the potential success and benefits of an integrated transport policy.     

Technical Note: RMS Values for Control Force, Suspension Stroke and Tyre Deflection in an Active Suspension

Expressions are derived for the numerical computation of rms values for control force, suspension stroke and dynamic tyre deflection in a quarter-car vehicle model on a random road of given roughness. A quadratic performance index is employed and the effects of the assumed weighting factors on the rms values and overall static stiffness determined.     

内圈蠕变引起的车轴轴承损伤进程的研究

车轴轴承内圈“蠕变”现象会导致内圈绕着车轴“旋转,”它是轴承磨损和发热的一个潜在的原因。人们仍不清楚内圈蠕变开始后车轴和轴承是如何迅速恶化的。文章用与实物等大的铁路车辆轴承在实验室进行了内圈蠕变仿真试验,调查了以内圈蠕变为起点的轴承损伤进程。试验结果揭示了轴承温度、振动以及车轴外径与内圈内径之间间隙的变化关系,并对内圈蠕变作出了预测。     

Optimization and integration of ground vehicle systems

This article deals with the optimal design of ground vehicles and their subsystems, with particular reference to 'active' safety and comfort. A review of state-of-the-art optimization methods for solving vehicle system design problems, including the integration of electronic controls, is given, thus further encouraging the use of such methods as standard tools for automotive engineers. Particular attention is devoted to the class of methods pertaining to complex system design optimization, as well as approaches for the optimal design of complex systems under uncertainty. Some examples of design optimizations are given in the fields of vehicle system dynamics, powertrain/internal combustion engine design, active safety and ride comfort, vehicle system design and lightweight structures, advanced automotive electronics, and smart vehicles.     

中国船舶修理改装厂全览

在过去几年里,中国已经明显成为在船舶修理和船舶改装行业中日益崛起的国家之一.中国的修船业起先仅因其价格竞争优势而闻名,而如今中国的领先船厂在船舶修理和船舶改装业务中所具有的全面竞争力已经获得全球海运界的公认.日本川崎重工和新加坡胜科集团这样的业界领先企业已经在中国建起了合资船厂,这些国际知名船舶管理公司的加盟正使中国修造船企业的竞争力得到进一步的增强.     

Seasonal productivity dynamics in the pelagic central Benguela System inferred from the flux of carbonate and silicate organisms

Flux of bulk components, carbonate- and silicate-bearing skeleton organisms, and the δ¹⁵N-isotopic signal were investigated on a 1-year time-series sediment trap deployed at the pelagic NU mooring site (Namibia Upwelling, ca. 29°S, 13°E) in the central Benguela System. The flux of bulk components mostly shows bimodal seasonality with major peaks in austral summer and winter, and moderate to low export in austral fall and spring. The calcium carbonate fraction dominates the export of particulates throughout the year, followed by lithogenic and biogenic opal. Planktonic foraminifera and coccolithophorids are major components of the carbonate fraction, while diatoms clearly dominate the biogenic opal fraction. Bulk δ¹⁵N isotopic composition of particulate matter is positively correlated with the total mass flux during summer and fall, while negatively correlated during winter and spring. Seasonal changes in the intensity of the main oceanographic processes affecting the NU site are inferred from variations in bulk component flux, and in the flux and diversity patterns of individual species or group of species. Influence from the Namaqua (Hondeklip) upwelling cell through offshore migration of chlorophyll filaments is stronger in summer, while the winter flux maximum seems to reflect mainly in situ production, with less influence from the coastal and shelf upwelling areas. On a yearly basis, dominant microorganisms correspond well with the flora and fauna of tropical/subtropical waters, with minor contribution of near-shore organisms. The simultaneous occurrence of species with different ecological affinities mirrors the fact that the mooring site was located in a transitional region with large hydrographic variability over short-time intervals.     

Variability of snow and ice thermal, physical and optical properties pertinent to sea ice algae biomass during spring

Changes in the thermal, physical and optical properties of the snow–sea ice system and feedbacks between various temporal and spatial scales affect accumulation of microalgae at the sea ice bottom and are the focus of this research. During the spring transition period, May 4 to June 9, 2002, we closely monitored atmospheric conditions and properties of the snow–sea ice system, including thermal, physical and optical properties of the snow cover (e.g., temperature, grain size, light attenuation), ice thickness and salinity, and biomass of bottom ice algae. Results show that snowdrift size averaged 31.2 by 10.6 m with a depth range of 2 to 45 cm. Snowpacks also varied in age, distinguished by coincident peaks of snow salinity and grain size and a lower PAR extinction coefficient. Spatial variability of the snowpack was superimposed by temporal variability associated with seasonal snow–ice melt and wind redistribution of snow. Maximum biomass of ice algae was observed under intermediate snow covers. Under thin snow covers, algae biomass declined steadily coincident with seasonal warming and desalination of the ice cover. Under thick snow covers, algae biomass was negatively correlated with snow depth. These results suggest that thin snow covers were associated with a thermal effect causing sloughing of algae, whereas under deep snow, algae were still light limited and thermally insulated from the warming atmosphere. Our results highlight the importance of snow cover history on the sea ice system operating below. Furthermore, in the context of current climate change scenarios, shifts in snow depth would result in decreases of ice algae biomass.