Choice of parking: Stated preference approach

Over recent years, parking policy has become a key element of transport policy in many countries. Parking policy measures can affect many different dimensions of travel behaviour but are likely to be most significant in terms of travellers' choice of parking type and location. This dimension of travel choice has, to date, received comparatively little attention, yet is of vital importance if we are to properly understand and predict the effects of parking policy measures.This paper presents two studies addressing this issue carried out in the United Kingdom and Germany. Both studies used a stated preference approach in order to collect disaggregate data on travellers responses to changes in parking attributes and used these data to build simple logit models of parking type choice. The studies were designed in order to allow comparable choice models to be estimated from the two datasets. The results obtained strongly indicate the need to separately identify the costs associated with different components of the parking activity (e.g., general in-vehicle time, parking search time, egress time) and also point to the existence of significant differences in the relative valuation of these components across different journey purposes. Where possible, the results of the choice modelling exercises are also compared with existing revealed and stated preference results and are found to be generally in line with prior expectations.     

Management of coastal eutrophication: Integration of field data, ecosystem-scale simulations and screening models

A hybrid approach for eutrophication assessment in estuarine and coastal ecosystems is presented. The ASSETS screening model (http://www.eutro.org) classifies eutrophication status into five classes: High (better), Good, Moderate, Poor and Bad (worse). This model was applied to a dataset from a shallow coastal barrier island system in southwest Europe (Ria Formosa), with a resulting score of Good. A detailed dynamic model was developed for this ecosystem, and the outputs were used to drive the screening model. Four scenarios were run on the research model: pristine, standard (simulates present loading), half and double the current nutrient loading. The Ria Formosa has a short water residence time and eutrophication symptoms are not apparent in the water column. However, benthic symptoms are expressed as excessive macroalgal growth and strong dissolved oxygen fluctuations in the tide pools. The standard simulation results showed an ASSETS grade identical to the field data application. The application of the screening model to the other scenario outputs showed the responsiveness of ASSETS to changes in pressure, state and response, scoring a grade of High under pristine conditions, Good for half the standard scenario and Moderate for double the present loadings. The use of this hybrid approach allows managers to test the outcome of measures against a set of well-defined metrics for the evaluation of state. It additionally provides a way of testing and improving the pressure component of ASSETS. Sensitivity analysis revealed that sub-sampling the output of the research model at a monthly scale, typical for the acquisition of field data, may significantly affect the outcome of the screening model, by overlooking extreme events such as occasional night-time anoxia in tide pools.     

Improving the predictiveness of the quasi-d combustion model for spark ignition engines with flexible intake systems

Fast and predictive simulation tools are prerequisites for pursuing simulation based engine control development. A particularly attractive tradeoff between speed and fidelity is achieved with a co-simulation approach that marries a commercial gas dynamic code WAVE™ with an in-house quasi-dimensional combustion model. Gas dynamics are critical for predicting the effect of wave action in intake and exhaust systems, while the quasi-D turbulent flame entrainment model provides sensitivity to variations of composition and turbulence in the cylinder. This paper proposes a calibration procedure for such a tool that maximizes its range of validity and therefore achieves a fully predictive combustion model for the analysis of a high degree of freedom (HDOF) engines. Inclusion of a charge motion control device in the intake runner presented a particular challenge, since anything altering the flow upstream of the intake valve remains “invisible” to the zero-D turbulence model applied to the cylinder control volume. The solution is based on the use of turbulence multiplier and scheduling of its value. Consequently, proposed calibration procedure considers two scalar variables (dissipation constant C _β and turbulence multiplier C _M ), and the refinements of flame front area maps to capture details of the spark-plug design, i.e. the actual distance between the spark and the surface of the cylinder head. The procedure is demonstrated using an SI engine system with dual-independent cam phasing and charge motion control valves (CMCV) in the intake runner. A limited number of iterations led to convergence, thanks to a small number of adjustable constants. After calibrating constants at the reference operating point, the predictions are validated for a range of engine speeds, loads and residual fractions.     

Primary productivity and export fluxes on the Canadian shelf of the Beaufort Sea: A modelling study

We present a coupled sea ice–ocean-biological (including ice algae) model in the Arctic Ocean. The 1D model was developed and implemented on the Canadian Beaufort Sea shelf to examine the importance of different physical processes in controlling the timing and magnitude of primary production and biogenic particle export over an annual cycle (1987). Our results show that the snow and sea ice cover melt and/or break-up controls the timing of the phytoplankton bloom but primary producers (ice algae and phytoplankton) on the outer shelf are essentially nutrient limited. The total annual primary production (22.7 to 27.7 g-C m^? 2) is thus controlled by nutrient “pre-conditioning” in the previous fall and winter and by the depth of wind mixing that is controlled in part by the supply of fresh water at the end of spring (ice melt or runoff). The spring bloom represents about 40% of the total annual primary production and occurs in a period of the year when sampling is often lacking. Time interpolation of observed values to obtain total annual primary production, as done in many studies, was shown to lead to an underestimation of the actual production. Our simulated ratios of export to primary production vary between 0.42 and 0.44.     

严峻问题

今年关于太平洋航线有两个不确定因素,即美国进口量增长将会大大放缓,同时美国出口量会继续增加.因此,几乎所有其他的问题都是不确定的:进口量是否会增长还是会减少?     

Equilibria of bilateral taxi–customer searching and meeting on networks

This paper proposes an equilibrium model to characterize the bilateral searching and meeting between customers and taxis on road networks. A taxi driver searches or waits for a customer by considering both the expected searching or waiting time cost and ride revenue, and a customer seeks a taxi ride to minimize full trip price. We suppose that the bilateral taxi–customer searching and meeting occurs anywhere in residential and commercial zones or at prescribed taxi stands, such as an airport or a railway station. We propose a meeting function to spell out the search and meeting frictions that arise endogenously as a result of the distinct spatial feature of the area and the taxi–customer moving decisions. With the proposed meeting function and the assumptions underlying taxi–customer search behaviors, the stationary competitive equilibrium achieved at fixed fare prices is determined when the demand of the customers matches the supply of taxis or there is market clearing at the prevailing searching and waiting times in every meeting location. We establish the existence of such an equilibrium by virtue of Brouwer’s fixed-point theorem and demonstrate its principal operational characteristics with a numerical example.     

Changing ownership structures in the Dutch fleet

The new Dutch shipping policy has given rise to high expectation and curiosity in the world of shipping. This, together with the obvious difficulties of an ex-post study of the effectiveness of such innovative policy, has prompted the authors to take an interest in attempting to investigate changes in ownership of the Dutch fleet 2 years after the new policy has been introduced. To do this, a rather new concept of ‘flagging out’ has been adopted, which is interpreted as a process leading to different degrees of ‘foreignness’ in a shipping operation. In this paper, a method to structure is presented, and ownership information, and changes in it are presented, that are essentially based on the theory of stochastic processes. The data used is the Dutch fleet data, which includes information on the nationality of the flag, parent ownership and management over the period 1994–1998. The results yield interesting insights in the shifts in the ownership and operational structure of shipping companies induced by the new policy. In particular, they allow one to establish the origin of new vessels, in which stage of ownership/operation it is most likely that shifts occur, and to determine the relationship between the different stages of the ‘flagging out’ process. These results, thus, enable an evaluation of the areas in which the policy can be expected to yield results.     

Red-light cameras at intersections: Estimating preferences using a stated choice model

Red-light cameras placed at intersections have the potential to increase safety, but they are often viewed as an invasion of privacy. Preferences for these cameras were explored using a stated choice model that presents key attributes of camera placements. Stated choice models involve careful experimental design, akin to experimental control in laboratory settings. A variety of design approaches were used, settling on a composition of the choice sets people face in the survey. To illustrate the approach, an internet survey was used with a convenience sample containing a high percentage of college students. The results show that while not the case independently, as the number of cameras and fines for violators are simultaneously increased, the preferences for one particular red light cameras program are likely to improve.     

严峻问题——经济、燃油或本、运力、码头运输工人联盟谈判产生了不确定性

今年关于太平洋航线有两个不确定因素，即美国进口量增长将会大大放缓，同时美国出口量会继续增加。因此，几乎所有其他的问题都是不确定的：进口量是否会增长还是会减少？航运公司是否会随着船只规模的增加，而为贸易业务分配更多运力，或者仅仅保持现有运力？他们是否能够成功增加运费以弥补成本的增长？发货人是否同意支付完全不固定的船舶燃油附加费？