Linear probit models: Statistical properties and improved estimation methods

The multinomial probit model is a statistical tool that is well suited to analyze some transportation problems. Modal split, gap acceptance, and route choice are some examples of application contexts. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of its statistical properties and an estimation method for the trinomial case. In the statistical part of the paper it is shown that for multinomial probit models with specifications that are linear in the parameters, the global maximum of the log-likelihood function is consistent if the data do not exhibit multicollinearity as defined in the text. For the special case with three alternatives, lack of multicollinearity is also shown to guarantee asymptotic efficiency and normality, and the uniqueness of any root of the likelihood equations. In addition, it is also shown that for the trinomial probit model certain goodness-of-it measures and test statistics can be easily calculated. The methods part of the paper introduces an estimation process that solves the likelihood equations using a special purpose table of the bivariate normal distribution and analytical derivatives of the log-likelihood function. The method is very accurate, can be applied to nonlinear specifications, and is considerably faster than current computer programs. For linear specifications, the method can be mathematically proven to converge if the log-likelihood equations have a root.     

A multiple criteria approach for the evaluation of the rail transit networks in Istanbul

The deficiencies in the Istanbul transportation system have led the local authorities to plan several alternative transportation projects. In this paper three alternative rail transit network proposals are evaluated by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple criteria decision support system. The AHP facilitates decision-making by organizing perceptions, experiences, knowledge and judgments, the forces that influence the decision, into a hierarchical framework with a goal, scenarios, criteria and alternatives of choice. Based on this analysis, the decision makers have developed a new alternative as a combination of the most closely competing two alternative rail transit networks. This combination rail transit network is currently under construction.     

Dynamic Analysis of the Biped Ice-skater Robot of Passive Wheel Type

A new passive wheel type of biped ice-skater robot （BISR） subjected to nonholonomic constraints was presented on the basis of ice-skating principle. Its motion principle and construction were discussed. After the model was simplified and the coordinate systems were established, the motion differential equations of the robot were obtained with the generalized Lagrange-Maggi equation when the nonholonomic constraints existed. Actual examples were given and the result was simulated on computer.     

Future applications of Ni-Ti alloys in automotive safety systems

The shape memory alloys present unusual thermo-mechanical properties. The most important of them are pseudo-elasticity and memory effect. The paper investigates this behaviour for the Ni-Ti wires under static (v < 50 mm/s) and dynamic conditions (v > 50 mm/s) at different temperatures. Ni-Ti actuator and pseudoelastic wires with diameter between 0.1 mm to 0.5 mm are being tested. For dynamic investigation a new testing plant able to satisfy the testing conditions is created. This new testing plant is still under development and the reported results originate from the first tests on this new machine. The new device is designed to reach speeds higher than 50 mm/s. These speeds can be achieved using a drop weight which will hit a bottom plate and by this the kinetic energy is transferred to the sample. Because the weight is dropped, the stroke for the sample is measured in two points. The force of this impact will be in-line measured and, if the sample will be electrically activated during this test, it is also possible to log the electrical voltage. To widen the application range of the shape memory alloys it is necessary to study their behaviour in the dynamic region. With the new testing facility, it is expected to test the damping properties of SMA wires. In that case, these results can generate the basis for finding new applications for shape memory alloys especially in the automotive safety industry.     

Computational fluid dynamics and experimental study of lock-in phenomenon in vortex-induced motions of a cell-truss spar

Spar platforms could be subject to vortex-induced-motions (VIM) in certain current conditions. Lockin is a phenomenon which occurs in a range of reduced velocities in VIM. In this paper, a new concept of spar platform called cell-truss spar is studied using both computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and model test to investigate the VIM of the spar under different reduced velocities. The unique configuration of the cell-truss spar is carefully considered, and the unsteady flow around the spar is calculated and visualized in CFD simulations. A physical model with a scale ratio of 1:100 of the cell-truss spar is fabricated, and model tests are carried out in the current-generating ocean engineering basin. Many important parameters in VIM of the cell-truss spar are obtained, the occurrence of lock-in phenomenon is successfully simulated, and the mechanism and rules of lock-in are analyzed.     

Predicting auto-ignition characteristics of RCCI combustion using a multi-zone model

The objective of new combustion concepts is to meet emission standards by improving fuel air mixing prior to ignition. Since there is no overlap between injection and ignition, combustion is governed mainly by chemical kinetics and it is challenging to control the phasing of ignition. Reactivity Controlled Compression Ignition (RCCI) combustion aims to control combustion phasing by altering the fuel ratios of the high- and low octane fuel and injection timings. In this study the dual fuel blend is prepared with gasoline and diesel fuels. The applied injection timings of the diesel are very early (90 to 60° CA bTDC). In the detailed reaction mechanism, n-heptane and iso-octane represent diesel and gasoline fuel, respectively. A multi-zone model approach is implemented to perform RCCI combustion simulation. Ignition characteristics are analyzed by using CA50 as the main parameter. In the experiments for the early direct injection (DI) timing advancing the injection time results in a later ignition. Qualitatively, the trend effect of the diesel injection timing and the effect of the ratio gasoline/diesel are captured accurately by the multi-zone model.     

Modeling Car Ownership in Turkey Using Fuzzy Regression

Abstract

This article develops a model which can be used to determine car ownership in Turkey. Because of the lack of disaggregated data, the model is based on aggregated data. As owning a car is mainly affected by economic, social and demographic factors, the car ownership model has a multi-variable form. In order to explain the effects of these factors on car ownership in Turkey, a fuzzy multiple-regression model is used. The major reason for applying fuzzy regression is to overcome the intercorrelation problem associated with the independent variables. In this study, the urbanization rate, average family size, gross national product per capita, average car cost, gasoline price and total length of roads are selected as independent variables. The results show that, by applying a multi-variable approach to possibilistic regression, the model provides not only a crisp output but also an output range for car ownership in Turkey between 1970 and 2000.     

URANS prediction of roll damping for a ship hull section at shallow draft

It is analytically difficult to calculate roll damping of ships due to the effects of viscosity. Therefore, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has become a powerful tool in predicting roll damping recently. The unsteady flow around a forced rolling hull section with bilge keels can be calculated using a commercial URANS code which includes the viscous effects. In this study, two-dimensional (2D) roll damping calculations for a S60 midsection with bilge keels including free surface effects are performed for shallow draft case. The first objective of the study is to show whether the URANS code can be used to predict roll damping coefficient correctly. The second one is to show why Ikeda’s estimation method is insufficient at shallow draft case. Sinusoidal forced roll motion calculation method of roll damping moment with the help of a sliding interface and a fixed roll axis is successfully applied to predict roll damping coefficient. The calculations are carried out for different roll motion periods and amplitudes to validate the accuracy of the URANS code for different cases. Numerical results are compared with experiments, which were carried out at the towing tank facility of Osaka Prefecture University (OPU), and Ikeda’s estimation method. The results show that the URANS code is capable of predicting roll damping coefficients in a good agreement with experimental results and can be used further to develop a better model for prediction of roll damping.     

锂离子电池负极材料的研究进展

本文阐述了锂离子负极材料的基本特性,综述了碳类材料、硅类材料以及这两种材料形成的复合材料作为锂离子电池负极材料的研究及开发应用现状.