The dynamic relationships between paper petroleum refining and physical trade of crude oil into the United States

This article examines the relationship between refinery margins traded on paper using petroleum futures (the paper refinery) and the physical trade of crude oil into the US. Computations of a 3:2:1 crack spread were constructed using daily observations of second- and third-nearby unleaded gasoline and heating oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NY MEX) and spot Brent crude oil prices. The crack spread represents the margin between the cost of crude oil feed stock today and the value of the products produced by a refinery in the future. Unit root tests on each of the time series found crack spreads to be stationary while crude oil imports were found to be non-stationary. A s the two series were found to be integrated of different order, cointegration analysis of the two series was not deemed appropriate. Instead, linear relationships between crack spreads and imports were examined using causality tests. It was found that the 2-month 3:2:1 crack spread Granger-causes crude oil imports and that this causality is unidirectional. The significance of these findings lies in the fact that other industries like tanker shipping derive their demand from the demand for, and trade in, petroleum. Crack spreads, therefore, can provide a leading indicator for short term developments in tanker demand. For a chartering manager who has ships on the spot market, crack spreads can help him/her anticipate demand developments and influence vessel deployment and chartering decisions.     

Driver fatigue: a vision-based approach to automatic diagnosis

In this paper, we describe a system that locates and tracks the eyes of a driver. The purpose of such a system is to perform detection of driver fatigue. By mounting a small camera inside the car, we can monitor the face of the driver and look for eye movements which indicate that the driver is no longer in condition to drive. In such a case, a warning signal should be issued. This paper describes how to find and track the eyes. We also describe a method that can determine if the eyes are open or closed. The primary criterion for this system is that it must be highly non-intrusive. The system must also operate regardless of the texture and the color of the face. It must also be able to handle changing conditions such as changes in light, shadows, reflections, etc. Initial experimental results are very promising even when the driver moves his/her head in a way such that the camera does not have a frontal view of the driver’s face.     

Estimating travel time functions for urban roads: options and issues

Travel time functions specify the relationship between the travel time on a road and the volume of traffic on the road. Until recently, the parameters of travel time functions were rarely estimated in practice; however, a compelling case can be made for the empirical examination of these functions. This paper reviews, and qualitatively evaluates, a range of options for developing a set of travel time functions. A hierarchy of travel time functions is defined based on four levels of network detail: area, corridor, route and link. This hierarchy is illustrated by considering the development of travel time functions for Adelaide. Alternative sources of data for estimating travel time functions are identified.

In general, the costs and benefits increase as the travel time functions are estimated at finer levels of network detail. The costs of developing travel time functions include data acquisition costs and analysis costs. The benefits include the potential for reducing prediction errors, the degree of application flexibility and the policy sensitivity of the travel time functions.     

Economic Valuation of Coastal and Marine Resources: Bohol Marine Triangle,Philippines

This article provides results on the net benefits generated from the natural resources in the Bohol Marine Triangle (BMT) in the Philippines. The BMT spans over 112,000 ha and its coastal ecosystems are rich in biodiversity and provide economic opportunities to the coastal communities. With a 10% discount rate, the accumulated total net benefits for the BMT resources over a 10-year period is US$11.54 million. Tourism and the municipal fisheries are the most important direct use values of the coastal and marine resources of the BMT accounting for 44% and 39% of the total net benefits. Annual revenues attributed to ecosystems were as follows: coral reefs, US$1.26 million; beach/intertidal area, US$1.12 million; marine waters, US$646,501; mangrove, US$239,561; and seagrass, US$105,990. The large market values indicate the dependence of the local community on the BMT coastal and marine resources. In the same way, non-market values show the important life-support functions of coastal and marine ecosystems. The net benefits reflect the magnitude of potential losses due to improper management of coastal and marine resources in the BMT. This valuation highlights the importance of the coastal services to the BMT economy and draws attention to the benefits the local stakeholders derive from BMT coastal resources. Policy measures can now take into account these values to justify a sufficient investment in coastal management efforts to sustain the flow of coastal services in the interest of current and future generations.     

Evaluation of general aviation management at Denver Stapleton airport

The potential benefits of general aviation management at a major airport is examined in this paper. The three general aviation management techniques investigated are volume reduction, runway segregation and time restriction.

First, a methodology for analyzing these techniques is discussed. The various effects on each user group are quantified for economic comparison between each management technique attempted. A computer simulation model was used to measure the delay effects. Then, these techniques are applied to Denver Stapleton Airport to measure their effects in present and future scenarios.

The results show that the best general aviation management technique is volume restriction. The use of peak‐hour pricing mechanism provided better results than random rejection, particularly if only a small degree of diversion is desired. The construction of a new general aviation runway provided equivalent results to the best technique tested.     

Public transit subsidies, output effect and total factor productivity

This paper extends previous works on total factor productivity decomposition when firms receive both operating and capital subsidies. It shows that previous works considered either the lump-sum or substitution effects of these subsidies but not together. Using constrained cost minimization as the framework it offers formal proofs to show that cost increases are inevitable if the total effects of the subsidies are considered, and that total factor productivity growth results from increasing amounts of subsidies under economies of scale and in the absence of technical change. Applications of the decomposition equations derived to a sample of transit systems finds near constant returns to scale and negative contributions of these subsidies to total factor productivity growth. Technical change reverses this decline and results in total factor productivity growth. Further, it finds that the lump-sum effects of the subsidies reduce total factor productivity more than does the substitution effect.     

Optimal synthesis of function generation in steering linkages

This paper presents an approach to optimize planar mechanisms for function generation synthesis. It is applied to the design of different steering linkages used in road vehicles where the Ackermann condition is formulated as the objective function. Four different mechanisms are kinematically defined and synthesized in terms of the proposed method. Limitations of the size of the elements are also considered by means of inequality constraints. Solutions are presented as the difference between desired behaviour, established by Ackermann, and actual generated performance. The results show that the accuracy achieved by the proposed procedure is satisfactory for working conditions in this type of linkages.     

Benthic sediment composition and nutrient cycling in an Intermittently Closed and Open Lake Lagoon

Surfical sediments within Corunna Lake, a moderate size Intermittently Closed and Open Lake Lagoon (ICOLL), were examined for solid phase nutrient concentrations (TN, TP, TOC,) and solute exchange rates between the sediment and water column (O₂, NO₃–N, NH₄–N, FRP, and N₂). The surfical sediments in Corunna Lake contained high concentrations of TN (5 mg/g dry mass), total phosphorus (0.6 mg/g dry mass), and TOC (~ 5% dry mass). The carbon stable isotope ratio (δ¹³C) and TOC:TN ratios (δ¹³C ~ ? 24, TOC:TN ~ 11–14) demonstrated that the composition of the organic matter in the sediment was a mixture derived primarily of degraded planktonic matter. The close association between TP and Fe concentrations highlighted the potential role Fe plays in mediating Filterable Reactive Phosphorus (FRP) concentrations in the water column of Corunna Lake. In situ benthic chamber incubations were used to measure benthic fluxes. Solute exchange rates between the sediment and water column in Corunna Lake were similar to other reported studies (O₂ = ? 469 to ? 1765 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1, NH₄–N = 0.1–63 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1, NO₂/NO₃–N = 0 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1, FRP = ? 4–1.6 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1and N₂ = 12–356 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1). As more carbon was deposited and mineralized the efficiency of the bacterial population to denitrify nitrogen in the sediment decreases. The linkage between land use and benthic biogeochemistry was also explored. A dairy farm exists in the middle catchment of Corunna Lake, and the receiving bay sediment consistently demonstrated the highest oxygen consumption rates in winter and spring (? 1408 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1 in winter, ? 1691 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1 in spring) and lowest denitrification efficiencies during summer (~ 3%). Nitrate/nitrite fluxes were not observed during any of the chamber incubations, with the concentrations of nitrate/nitrite being below detection limits (< 10 μg/L). Seasonal changes influenced the rates of solute exchange between the sediment and water column. Critical measures of solute exchange for NH₄–N and biogenic N₂ indicated that seasonal temperature changes play a significant role in mediating the reaction rates of sedimentary based biogeochemical processes. Measurable FRP fluxes were small but greater in the benthic sediments which received higher carbon inputs. Sediments have a high capacity to adsorb P which is released as sediment oxygen demand increases as a result of increases in labile carbon loads.