The dynamic relationships between paper petroleum refining and physical trade of crude oil into the United States

This article examines the relationship between refinery margins traded on paper using petroleum futures (the paper refinery) and the physical trade of crude oil into the US. Computations of a 3:2:1 crack spread were constructed using daily observations of second- and third-nearby unleaded gasoline and heating oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NY MEX) and spot Brent crude oil prices. The crack spread represents the margin between the cost of crude oil feed stock today and the value of the products produced by a refinery in the future. Unit root tests on each of the time series found crack spreads to be stationary while crude oil imports were found to be non-stationary. A s the two series were found to be integrated of different order, cointegration analysis of the two series was not deemed appropriate. Instead, linear relationships between crack spreads and imports were examined using causality tests. It was found that the 2-month 3:2:1 crack spread Granger-causes crude oil imports and that this causality is unidirectional. The significance of these findings lies in the fact that other industries like tanker shipping derive their demand from the demand for, and trade in, petroleum. Crack spreads, therefore, can provide a leading indicator for short term developments in tanker demand. For a chartering manager who has ships on the spot market, crack spreads can help him/her anticipate demand developments and influence vessel deployment and chartering decisions.     

Driver fatigue: a vision-based approach to automatic diagnosis

In this paper, we describe a system that locates and tracks the eyes of a driver. The purpose of such a system is to perform detection of driver fatigue. By mounting a small camera inside the car, we can monitor the face of the driver and look for eye movements which indicate that the driver is no longer in condition to drive. In such a case, a warning signal should be issued. This paper describes how to find and track the eyes. We also describe a method that can determine if the eyes are open or closed. The primary criterion for this system is that it must be highly non-intrusive. The system must also operate regardless of the texture and the color of the face. It must also be able to handle changing conditions such as changes in light, shadows, reflections, etc. Initial experimental results are very promising even when the driver moves his/her head in a way such that the camera does not have a frontal view of the driver’s face.     

Estimating travel time functions for urban roads: options and issues

Travel time functions specify the relationship between the travel time on a road and the volume of traffic on the road. Until recently, the parameters of travel time functions were rarely estimated in practice; however, a compelling case can be made for the empirical examination of these functions. This paper reviews, and qualitatively evaluates, a range of options for developing a set of travel time functions. A hierarchy of travel time functions is defined based on four levels of network detail: area, corridor, route and link. This hierarchy is illustrated by considering the development of travel time functions for Adelaide. Alternative sources of data for estimating travel time functions are identified.

In general, the costs and benefits increase as the travel time functions are estimated at finer levels of network detail. The costs of developing travel time functions include data acquisition costs and analysis costs. The benefits include the potential for reducing prediction errors, the degree of application flexibility and the policy sensitivity of the travel time functions.     

Economic Valuation of Coastal and Marine Resources: Bohol Marine Triangle,Philippines

This article provides results on the net benefits generated from the natural resources in the Bohol Marine Triangle (BMT) in the Philippines. The BMT spans over 112,000 ha and its coastal ecosystems are rich in biodiversity and provide economic opportunities to the coastal communities. With a 10% discount rate, the accumulated total net benefits for the BMT resources over a 10-year period is US$11.54 million. Tourism and the municipal fisheries are the most important direct use values of the coastal and marine resources of the BMT accounting for 44% and 39% of the total net benefits. Annual revenues attributed to ecosystems were as follows: coral reefs, US$1.26 million; beach/intertidal area, US$1.12 million; marine waters, US$646,501; mangrove, US$239,561; and seagrass, US$105,990. The large market values indicate the dependence of the local community on the BMT coastal and marine resources. In the same way, non-market values show the important life-support functions of coastal and marine ecosystems. The net benefits reflect the magnitude of potential losses due to improper management of coastal and marine resources in the BMT. This valuation highlights the importance of the coastal services to the BMT economy and draws attention to the benefits the local stakeholders derive from BMT coastal resources. Policy measures can now take into account these values to justify a sufficient investment in coastal management efforts to sustain the flow of coastal services in the interest of current and future generations.     

Evaluation of general aviation management at Denver Stapleton airport

The potential benefits of general aviation management at a major airport is examined in this paper. The three general aviation management techniques investigated are volume reduction, runway segregation and time restriction.

First, a methodology for analyzing these techniques is discussed. The various effects on each user group are quantified for economic comparison between each management technique attempted. A computer simulation model was used to measure the delay effects. Then, these techniques are applied to Denver Stapleton Airport to measure their effects in present and future scenarios.

The results show that the best general aviation management technique is volume restriction. The use of peak‐hour pricing mechanism provided better results than random rejection, particularly if only a small degree of diversion is desired. The construction of a new general aviation runway provided equivalent results to the best technique tested.     

Benthic sediment composition and nutrient cycling in an Intermittently Closed and Open Lake Lagoon

Surfical sediments within Corunna Lake, a moderate size Intermittently Closed and Open Lake Lagoon (ICOLL), were examined for solid phase nutrient concentrations (TN, TP, TOC,) and solute exchange rates between the sediment and water column (O₂, NO₃–N, NH₄–N, FRP, and N₂). The surfical sediments in Corunna Lake contained high concentrations of TN (5 mg/g dry mass), total phosphorus (0.6 mg/g dry mass), and TOC (~ 5% dry mass). The carbon stable isotope ratio (δ¹³C) and TOC:TN ratios (δ¹³C ~ ? 24, TOC:TN ~ 11–14) demonstrated that the composition of the organic matter in the sediment was a mixture derived primarily of degraded planktonic matter. The close association between TP and Fe concentrations highlighted the potential role Fe plays in mediating Filterable Reactive Phosphorus (FRP) concentrations in the water column of Corunna Lake. In situ benthic chamber incubations were used to measure benthic fluxes. Solute exchange rates between the sediment and water column in Corunna Lake were similar to other reported studies (O₂ = ? 469 to ? 1765 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1, NH₄–N = 0.1–63 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1, NO₂/NO₃–N = 0 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1, FRP = ? 4–1.6 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1and N₂ = 12–356 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1). As more carbon was deposited and mineralized the efficiency of the bacterial population to denitrify nitrogen in the sediment decreases. The linkage between land use and benthic biogeochemistry was also explored. A dairy farm exists in the middle catchment of Corunna Lake, and the receiving bay sediment consistently demonstrated the highest oxygen consumption rates in winter and spring (? 1408 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1 in winter, ? 1691 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1 in spring) and lowest denitrification efficiencies during summer (~ 3%). Nitrate/nitrite fluxes were not observed during any of the chamber incubations, with the concentrations of nitrate/nitrite being below detection limits (< 10 μg/L). Seasonal changes influenced the rates of solute exchange between the sediment and water column. Critical measures of solute exchange for NH₄–N and biogenic N₂ indicated that seasonal temperature changes play a significant role in mediating the reaction rates of sedimentary based biogeochemical processes. Measurable FRP fluxes were small but greater in the benthic sediments which received higher carbon inputs. Sediments have a high capacity to adsorb P which is released as sediment oxygen demand increases as a result of increases in labile carbon loads.     

Household attitudes toward environmental quality in a coastal South Carolina County

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the findings of a survey of a sample of Beaufort county, South Carolina, households which was conducted to ascertain preferences for environmental quality. These preferences were approximated from survey responses on willingness to pay for environmental amenities and the size of payments households would require to forfeit them. A scale was developed and used to rank these responses ordinally, and the matrices of scaled responses for each of eight household annual‐income classes were subjected to factor analyses.     

Route choice of cyclists in Zurich

This paper presents the first route choice model for bicyclists estimated from a large sample of GPS observations and overcomes the limitations inherent in the generally employed stated preference approach. It employs an improved mode detection algorithm for GPS post-processing to determine trips made by bicycle, which are map matched to an enriched street network. The alternatives are generated as a random sample from an exhaustive, but constrained search. Accounting for the similarity between the alternatives with the path-size factor the MNL estimates show that the elasticity with regards to trip length is nearly four times larger than that with respect to the share of bike paths. The elasticity with respect to the product of length and maximum gradient of the route is small. No other variable describing the routes had an impact. The heterogeneity of the cyclists is captured through interaction terms formulated on their average behaviour.     

Scantling multi-objective optimisation of a LNG carrier

Numerous real-world problems related to ship design can be solved by various alternatives. However, the scantling design has conflicting objectives such as minimum production cost, minimum weight and maximum moment of inertia (stiffness). Therefore a multi-purpose solution had to be settled in order to meet all these requirements at once. Ship design is a complex endeavour requiring successful coordination of many different disciplines, both technical and non-technical. Basic design is the least defined stage of the ship design process and seeks to define the optimal amidships section structure. For that purpose, recent improvements have been made to a numerical tool in order to optimise the scantling of ship sections by considering production cost, weight and moment of inertia in the optimisation objective function. A multi-criteria optimisation of a LNG carrier is conducted in this paper to illustrate the analysis process. Pareto frontiers are obtained and results have been validated by the Bureau Veritas rules. The methodology presented in this paper has demonstrated its effectiveness in optimising scantling of ships at a very early design stage thanks to a management of critical problems usually studied at a later stage of the design.