Flexible substitution patterns in models of mode and time of day choice: new evidence from the UK and the Netherlands

Modelling the temporal response of travellers to transport policy interventions has rapidly emerged as a major issue in many practical transport planning studies and is recognised to hold particular challenges. The importance of congestion and its variation over the day, together with the emergence of time-dependent road user charging as a policy tool, emphasise the need to understand whether and how travellers will change the timing of their journeys. For practical planning studies, analysts face a major issue of relating temporal changes to other behavioural changes that are likely to result from policy or exogenous changes. In particular, the relative sensitivity of time and mode switching has been difficult to resolve. This paper describes a study undertaken to determine the relative sensitivity of mode and time of day choice to changes in travel times and costs and to investigate whether evidence exists of varying magnitudes of unobservable influences in time of day switching. The study draws on data from three related stated preference studies undertaken over the past decade in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands and uses error components logit models to investigate the patterns of substitution between mode and time of day alternatives. It is concluded that the magnitude of unobserved influences on time switching depends significantly on the magnitudes of the time switches considered. With time periods of the magnitude generally represented in practical modelling, i.e. peak periods of 2–3 hours, time switching is generally more sensitive in these data than mode switching. However, the context of the modelling and the extent to which relevant variables can be measured will strongly influence these results.     

Tree-building with complex cost structures — A new algorithm for incorporation into transport demand models

This paper highlights some of the difficulties involved in the implementation of complex cost structures in the tree-building section of a transport demand model. The conventional tree-building algorithm is briefly described and is seen to be inadequate for the present purpose. A new algorithm is then presented which is able to implement complex cost structures properly. An example is given of the application of this algorithm to the building of tree in a public transport network. The performance of a computer program incorporating the new alrogrithm is evaluated against alternative methods of implementing complex cost structures. Some mention is then made of the vast range of potential uses for the new algorithm in the field of transport modelling and simulation.     

Representing mental maps and cognitive learning in micro-simulation models of activity-travel choice dynamics

This paper develops a model, based on Bayesian beliefs networks, for representing mental maps and cognitive learning into micro-simulation models of activity-travel behavior. Mental maps can be used to address the problem that choice sets in models of travel demand are often ad hoc specified. The theory underlying the model is discussed, a specification is derived and numerical simulation is used to illustrate the properties of the model.     

停车诱导信息系统条件下的城市交通网络SUE配流模型及算法

停车诱导信息系统(Parking Guidance Information System,PGIS)被认为是改善城市交通拥挤的一项有效技术,不同的PGIS市场占有率对道路交通的影响是不同的。文章将出行者分成两类:使用PGIS和不使用PGIS,考虑了PGIS对出行者道路和停车选择行为的影响以及PGIS的市场占有率,构造了随机用户均衡模型来描述PGIS条件下的道路和停车选择问题,设计了相应的算法。最后,通过一个算例对模型及算法进行了验证。     

Pooling for the journey to work: The outlook in Great Britain

Pooling, or ride-sharing, is a term coined in the United States (U.S.) to describe various forms of collective travel organised for, and often by, specific groups of commuters with similar travel requirements. Its different forms include bus pooling (financially self-supporting works bus or commuter coach services), minibus pooling (van pooling in U.S. terminology) and car pooling. It has been claimed that these forms of collective travel offer a more personalised service than conventional stage carriage buses, and therefore have a greater chance of attracting solo car drivers and increasing vehicle occupancies. This, in turn, can lead to lower fuel consumption and reduced traffic congestion at peak times. Following the advent of oil shortages in the winter of 1973/74, considerable efforts were made in the U.S. to promote pooling initiatives. This gave rise to the publication of a substantial volume of literature that sometimes indicated significant resource-saving achievements. This paper considers the potential for bus, minibus and car pooling in Great Britain, drawing both on relevant theoretical and economic studies, and on practical operational experience. It concludes that under reasonable assumptions about the transport situation in the next decade or so, pooling could become increasingly useful for solving the travel problems of individual local groups, but that it is unlikely to become a major mode in terms of the numbers of trips carried. The effects of recent legislative changes are discussed, and the justification for further change assessed. Relevant comparisons are made with the U.S.Crown Copyright 1983. Extracts from the text may be reproduced, except for commercial purposes, provided the source is acknowledged.     

Investigation on Stability and Possible Chaotic Motions in the Controlled Wheel Suspension System

The suspension system has to fulfil a large number of partly contradictory requirements which can be improved by the application of controllable elements in the wheel suspension system. A number of studies dealing with the improvement of suspension characteristics have been published. In the present paper the stability of the controlled suspension systems will be examined. In the paper the stability problems of the active suspension system is analysed and the stable parameter regions are determined.     

A Variable Free Control Characteristic Vehicle

A variable characteristic car (VCC) has been developed at Melbourne University for driverlvehicle handling research. The vehicle is unusual in that it has facilities for varying both its fixed control and free control dynamic characteristics over wide ranges. In this paper the servo systems used to effect these changes are described. The calibration methods used to relate the vehicle response characteristics to the variable servo settings are detailed. Sample calibration results are given for the fixed control parameters steering ratio, yaw response time and stability factor. Calibration of the free control parameters is also described and results are given for the steering torque gradient, and the time-to-peak and percentage overshoot of the steering wheel motion in response to a step input of torque.     

Generalised time and the problem of equity in transport studies

The generalised time expenditure on travel,g _t, may be defined asg _t =t +m/λ where t is the amount of time spent, m is the amount of money spent, and λ is the value of time. Generalised time is expressed in units of time, unlikeg _c, the generalised cost (g _c =m + λt), which measures the same quantities in units of money. Data on all trips from two studies are analysed to show that, as household income increases, the money spent per mile travelled increases, but the time spent per mile decreases. The use of generalised time gives a different picture of the relationship between income and the total time and money spent on travel to that given by the use of generalised cost. The choice between using generalised time and generalised cost in evaluation is fundamentally a choice between assuming that the marginal utility of time and that of money is constant. The procedures at present recommended by the Department of the Environment in U.K. have elements of both assumptions, with some loss of consistency. There are some a priori reasons for expecting constant marginal utility of time to be a more plausible assumption than constant marginal utility of money. Time is, by its nature, equitably and unalterably distributed, not subject to the accidents of inheritance, theft, chance, inflation, social system or government decree. Everybody starts off with 24 hours a day. Although the amount of “free” time varies, of course, it probably varies within a much smaller range than the amount of wealth, certainly for the employed population. In allocating time between various activities, the use of words likespend, save, waste, lose, gain, and so on is a reflection of how deeply rooted in language and thought is the concept of time as a fundamental currency. This approach is strengthened by recent developments in two areas where generalised cost has been found to be a useful tool of analysis — (a) in explaining and predicting the behaviour of travellers, and (b) in evaluating the social costs and benefits arising from transport projects. Only non-working time will be considered here. It is suggested that in some circumstances generalised time would allowbehaviourally correct relationships between non-working time and money to be used in evaluation. This paper — which is a revised version of “A Hypothesis of Constant Time Outlay on Travel” (Paper F29: Planning and Transport Research and Computation Ltd. Sussex, June 1973) — is based upon work carried out with the financial support of the Social Science Research Council.     

Towards marginal cost pricing: A comparison of alternative pricing systems

European urban areas are marred by the problems of congestion and environmental degradation due to the prevailing levels of car use. Strong arguments have thus been put forward in support of a policy based on marginal cost pricing (European Commission 1996). Such policy measures – which would force private consumers to pay for a public service that was previously provided "for free" – are, however, notoriously unpopular with the general public and hence also with their elected representatives – the politicians. There is thus an obvious tension between economic theory, which suggests that marginal cost pricing is the welfare maximising solution to urban transport problems, and practical experience, which suggests that such pricing measures are unwanted by the affected population and hence hard to implement through democratic processes. The AFFORD Project for the European Commission has aimed to investigate this paradox and its possible solutions, through a combination of economic analysis, predictive modelling, attitudinal surveys, and an assessment of fiscal and financial measures within a number of case study cities in Europe. In this paper the methodology and results obtained for the Edinburgh case study are reported in detail. The study analyses alternative road pricing instruments and compares their performance against the theoretical first best situation. It discusses the effect of coverage, location, charging mechanism and interaction with other instruments. The paper shows that limited coverage in one mode may lead to a deviation from the user pays principle in other modes, that location is as important as charge levels and that assumptions about the use of revenues are critical in determining the effect on equity and acceptability. Finally the results show that a relatively simple smart card system can come close to providing the economic first best solution, but that this result should be viewed in the context of the model assumptions.     

Modeling oil spills in a river—lake system

A general model shell, ROSS3, is developed for simulating oil spills in complex river systems using techniques which have not been previously exploited in oil spill models. ROSS3's new approach has several advantages over the approach to model oil spills in the past: (a) The use of a time-varying boundary-fitted coordinate system that allows accurate accounting for complex river/lake boundary as well as the river boundary changes as its water levels fluctuate; (b) The ability to confine two-dimensional hydrodynamic computations to a limited river reach; (c) The ability to interactively layout the channel networks for setting up the model, define extra cross sections to increase the accuracy if needed, in addition to the traditional data entry and visualization interfaces.ROSS3 is a two-layer two-dimensional oip spill model that can simulate the mechanism of advection, horizontal diffusion, mechanical spreading, shoreline deposition, evaporation, dissolution, vertical mixing, resurfacing and sinking. In ROSS3 spilled oil may be a surface slick or suspended oil droplets, or a combination of both. Both free surface and ice cover conditions can be simulated. The flow of conditions can be varied and the unsteady flow model can be run within ROSS3 to simulate the flow conditions in both the river and the lake. The ice conditions can be added or removed from the model input using easy interactive procedures.