Modeling schedule recovery processes in transit operations for bus arrival time prediction

Many existing algorithms for bus arrival time prediction assume that buses travel at free‐flow speed in the absence of congestion. As a result, delay incurred at one stop would propagate to downstream stops at the same magnitude. In reality, skilled bus operators often constantly adjust their speeds to keep their bus on schedule. This paper formulates a Markov chain model for bus arrival time prediction that explicitly captures the behavior of bus operators in actively pursuing schedule recovery. The model exhibits some desirable properties in capturing the schedule recovery process. It guarantees provision of the schedule information if the probability of recovering from the current schedule deviation is sufficiently high. The proposed model can be embedded into a transit arrival time estimation model for transit information systems that use both real‐time and schedule information. It also has the potential to be used as a decision support tool to determine when dynamic or static information should be used.     

NUMERICAL MODEL OF THERMAL TRANSIENT EFFECT IN FIBER OPTIC GYRO

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Primary productivity of the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research Area and the Southern Ocean

A major objective of the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research (Palmer LTER) project is to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the various components of the Antarctic marine ecosystem. Phytoplankton production plays a key role in this so-called high nutrient, low chlorophyll environment, and factors that regulate production include those that control cell growth (light, temperature, and nutrients) and those that control cell accumulation rate and hence population growth (water column stability, grazing, and sinking). Sea ice mediates several of these factors and frequently conditions the water column for a spring bloom which is characterized by a pulse of production restricted in both time and space. This study models the spatial and temporal variability of primary production within the Palmer LTER area west of the Antarctic Peninsula and discusses this production in the context of historical data for the Southern Ocean. Primary production for the Southern Ocean and the Palmer LTER area have been computed using both light-pigment production models [Smith, R.C., Bidigare, R.R., Prézelin, B.B., Baker, K.S., Brooks, J.M., 1987. Optical characterization of primary productivity across a coastal front. Mar. Biol. (96), 575–591; Bidigare, R.R., Smith, R.C., Baker, K.S., Marra, J., 1987. Oceanic primary production estimates from measurements of spectral irradiance and pigment concentrations. Global Biogeochem. Cycles (1), 171–186; Morel, A., Berthon, J.F., 1989. Surface pigments, algal biomass profiles and potential production of the euphotic layer—relationships reinvestigated in view of remote-sensing applications. Limnol. Oceanogr. (34), 1545–1562] and an ice edge production model [Nelson, D.M., Smith, W.O., 1986. Phytoplankton bloom dynamics of the western Ross Sea ice edge: II. Mesoscale cycling of nitrogen and silicon. Deep-Sea Res. (33), 1389–1412; Wilson, D.L., Smith, W.O., Nelson, D.M., 1986. Phytoplankton bloom dynamics of the Western Ross Sea ice edge: I. primary productivity and species-specific production. Deep-Sea Res., 33, 1375–1387; Smith, W.O., Nelson, D.M., 1986. Importance of ice edge phytoplankton production in the Southern Ocean. BioScience (36), 251–257]. Chlorophyll concentrations, total photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) and sea ice concentrations were derived from satellite data. These same parameters, in addition to hydrodynamic conditions, have also been determined from shipboard and Palmer Station observations during the LTER program. Model results are compared, sensitivity studies evaluated, and productivity of the Palmer LTER region is discussed in terms of its space time distribution, seasonal and interannual variability, and overall contribution to the marine ecology of the Southern Ocean.     

如何做好船舶设备维修保养工作

船员在船舶进行维修保养工作期间,经常发生一些工伤、机损事故。此文就如何加强安全防范意识,避免发生人身伤害和设备损坏提出了建议和措施。     

Heterogeneous traffic flow modelling for an arterial using grid based approach

A grid based modelling approach akin to cellular automata (CA) is adopted for heterogeneous traffic flow simulation. The road space is divided into a grid of equally sized cells. Moreover, each vehicle type occupies one or more cell as per its size unlike CA traffic flow model where each vehicle is represented by a single cell. Model needs inputs such as vehicle size, its maximum speed, acceleration, deceleration, probability constants, and arrival pattern. The position and speed of the vehicles are assumed to be discrete. The speed of each vehicle changes according to its interactions with other vehicles, following some stochastic rules depending on the circumstances. The model is calibrated and validated using real data and VISSIM. The results indicate that grid based model can reasonably well simulate complex heterogeneous traffic as well as offers higher computational efficiency needed for real time application.     

Robust control of traffic networks under uncertain conditions

Uncertainty of traffic network operations has been a subject of lively debate in the last decade. However, little effort has been put in developing control frameworks that are not only aimed at improving the average performance of the system, but also at improving the system robustness and reliability. In fact, it can be argued that most of the current control approaches are only aimed at improving the efficiency, which can even be counterproductive from a robustness point of view. The main contributions of this article is the proposition of a new control framework based on the notion of controlled Markov processes, which explicitly takes into account the uncertainty in predicted traffic conditions and system performance. Furthermore, in contrast to traditional optimal control approaches, the objective function can include general statistic of the random system performance, such as the mean, standard deviation or 95‐percentile. The contribution aims to make clear how different performance function specifications yield different control strategies. This is shown for a relatively simple case study.     

Relationships between near-bottom dissolved oxygen and sediment profile camera measures

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) and other environmental authorities regulate concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) as a measure of nutrient-related eutrophication in estuarine and coastal waters. However, in situ DO concentrations are extremely variable, and their characterization requires an extensive sampling program to provide data over meaningful scales of time and space. In contrast, benthic faunal communities integrate the impacts of low DO over time, and can be rapidly assessed using benthic imaging. The goal of this study was to quantify the relationships between near-bottom dissolved oxygen and measures derived from benthic imaging with a sediment profile camera. We monitored three stations in Narragansett Bay (Rhode Island, USA) for DO and other water quality parameters 15–20 cm above the sediment surface on 15-minute intervals between July and November 2002, and regularly sampled these stations with a sediment profile camera throughout this time period. These soft-sediment stations encompassed several DO environments. We tested for relationships between near-bottom DO and several camera measures, including Nilsson and Rosenberg's Benthic Habitat Quality (BHQ) index, the apparent Redox Potential Discontinuity (aRPD) depth, and various faunal features that can be identified in sediment profile images. Camera measures were examined against a variety of methods of characterizing DO (including mean DO, and the percent of time under various DO thresholds), over a span of time scales from 1 day to 49 days. The best relationship (highest r²) between near-bottom DO and BHQ was found when DO was evaluated as the percent of time under a hypoxic threshold of 2.6 mg l^− 1 over a 28-day time scale (by examining DO records over the 28 days preceding each camera deployment). We found that, over several benthic settings, the BHQ index was successful at identifying environments that had experienced relatively high or low DO over the preceding four weeks. Our sediment profile data showed more variability with DO in the intermediate values of BHQ. We conclude that sediment profile camera measures correlate to DO in areas where low DO is the primary stressor, integrate DO over ecologically relevant time scales, and enable sampling over spatial scales that are meaningful for mapping by virtue of rapid deployment and analysis. We submit that sediment profile camera imagery is a useful assessment and mapping tool for environmental managers interested in benthic condition and in first-order quantitative estimates of near-bottom DO regimes in areas where low DO is the primary benthic stressor.     

PAS与增稠保水剂复掺对水泥净浆性能的影响

研究了PAS及增稠保水剂(聚醚多糖、聚丙烯酰胺)与PAS复掺对水泥浆的泌水、流动度及强度等性能的影响。研究结果表明,聚醚多糖及聚丙烯酰胺与PAS复掺能明显降低水泥浆的泌水率,提高其早期强度;由于掺聚丙烯酰胺的净浆粘度增大很快,其流动性变差;聚醚多糖与PAS复掺后浆体流动性较好且流动度经时损失较小。     

Effects of small-scale turbulence on the growth of two diatoms of different size in a phosphorus-limited medium

The effect of turbulence on the nutrient flux towards osmotrophic cells is predicted to be size dependent. This should translate into growth. We experimentally followed and modelled the growth of two marine diatoms of different size (Thalassiosira pseudonana, 6 μm in diameter and Coscinodiscus sp., ca. 109 μm in diameter) under still water and turbulent conditions, using a shaker table. Experiments were done with phosphorus-limited cultures and lasted for ca. 5 days. Turbulence enhanced the growth of Coscinodiscus sp. in agreement with theory but not the growth of T. pseudonana, which was actually slightly lower under turbulence. At the end of the experiments there were about 1.7 times as many Coscinodiscus sp. cells in the turbulent treatment than in the still treatment, while for T. pseudonana almost the same cell concentration was found in both conditions. In addition, the Coscinodiscus sp. cells growing under still conditions presented a higher specific alkaline phosphatase activity than those growing in turbulence which indicates a higher need for phosphorus in the still cultures. A simple dynamic model, based on Michaelis–Menten nutrient uptake kinetics, needed nearly no optimisation other than using observed initial conditions of phosphate and cell concentrations. The model showed how an increased nutrient flux towards the cells translates non-linearly into cell growth, most likely by affecting the half-saturation constant (K_M). However, since Coscinodiscus sp. experienced significant mortality and cells partially settled to the bottom of the containers, unequivocal support for the size-dependent effect of turbulence on nutrient uptake will require further experiments and more sophisticated modelling. The mechanisms to connect an increased nutrient flux towards cells with population growth and whether this process is size dependent are important in parameterizing the effects of turbulence on marine plankton in coupled physical–biological models.