Representing heterogeneity in structural relationships among multiple choice variables using a latent segmentation approach

Transportation - Travel model systems often adopt a single decision structure that links several activity-travel choices together. The single decision structure is then used to predict...     

Contents Volume 32 2005

Contents Volume

Contents Volume 32 2005     

Forecasting telecommuting

Transportation planners increasingly recognize telecommuting as an important trend. But while they often advocate telecommuting as a transportation demand management strategy, transportation planners have made little progress toward incorporating telecommuting into transportation forecasts, at least partly because of the limited data available. In this paper we explore four alternative methodologies for forecasting telecommuting and discuss the kinds of data that must be collected before these methodologies can be applied. The first approach is trend extrapolation, using curves of technological substitution. Sufficient data are currently available to produce forecasts, albeit highly uncertain forecasts, using this approach. However, even with better data this approach does not address underlying factors and trends that will affect the future of telecommuting. As a result, we explore three additional approaches that should produce more reliable forecasts but which require new data and knowledge about telecommuting: analyzing the characteristics of telecommuters in contrast to nontelecommuters, analyzing factors affecting the individual choice to telecommute, and incorporating telecommuting into traditional transportation forecasting models.     

A conceptual analysis of the transportation impacts of B2C e-commerce

This paper discusses, at a conceptual level, a number of issues related to the evaluation of the transportation and spatial impacts of e-shopping. We review the comparative advantages of store shopping and e-shopping, and conclude that neither type uniformly dominates the other. We identify the building blocks of the shopping process, and note that information and communications technologies are making possible the spatial and temporal fragmentation and recombination of those elements. We analyze future shopping-related changes in transportation as the net outcome of four different fundamental causes, that can be viewed hierarchically: (1) changes in shopping mode share (i.e. shifts in the proportion of shopping activities conducted through store shopping, e-shopping and other modes), keeping the volume of goods purchased and per capita consumption spending constant; (2) changes in the volume of goods purchased, keeping per capita consumption spending constant; (3) changes in per capita consumption spending, independent of demographic changes; and (4) demographic changes. Some factors result in reduced travel while others lead to increased travel. The combined outcome of all factors does not appear to support any hope that e-shopping will reduce travel on net; to the contrary there may be negative impacts due to increased travel, even if those impacts are likely to be localized and/or small in magnitude for the most part. Thus, on the whole, we are likely (with some exceptions) to see continued adoption of both store shopping and e-shopping. Consumers will blend both forms as they conduct a sequence of shopping activities, and retailers will blend both in marketing to and serving customers. Assessing the transportation impacts of e-shopping – even in the short term, let alone the long term – presents some formidable measurement challenges. Nevertheless, those challenges are worthy of our most creative efforts at solution.     

How do passengers use travel time? A case study of Shanghai–Nanjing high speed rail

Traditional travel behavior theory regards travel time as a waste. Recent studies suggest that it carries a positive utility, among other reasons for the benefit of the activities conducted while traveling. However, most studies of travel time use have focused on conventional trains in developed countries. Few have systematically examined the permeation of information and communication technology (ICT) into travel time use and the correlates of activity participation in developing countries, particularly on high speed rail (HSR). Using a survey conducted on the Shanghai–Nanjing corridor (N = 901), this study examines how HSR passengers use their travel time and explores the correlates of the different types of activities of business and non-business travelers, respectively, through multivariate probit models. We found that 96% of the respondents use ICT during their HSR journey and that most passengers spend some of their travel time on work-related activities. Moreover, items carried and advance planning as well as work-related travel attributes contribute significantly to activity participation. However, the factors affecting time use of business and non-business travelers differ. HSR service design should facilitate passenger engagement in various activities and improvement of their travel experience. A stable internet connection, adequate power sockets, and a noise-free environment will promote both work and leisure activities on the HSR.     

Enrichment, concentration and retention processes in relation to anchovy (Engraulis ringens) eggs and larvae distributions in the northern Humboldt upwelling ecosystem

A Lagrangian model is used to simulate and quantify in the northern Humboldt upwelling ecosystem the processes of enrichment, concentration and retention, identified by Bakun [Bakun, A., 1996. Patterns in the ocean. Ocean processes and marine population dynamics. University of California Sea Grant, California, USA, in cooperation with Centro de Investigaciones Biologicas de Noroeste, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico, 323 pp.] as being important for the survival and recruitment of early life stages of pelagic fish. The method relies on tracking the positions of particles within water velocity fields generated by a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Simple criteria for considering particles as participating to enrichment, concentration or retention are used to derive indices of the three processes. We analyse the spatial distribution of and seasonal variability in these indices. The results are discussed in relation to anchovy (Engraulis ringens) eggs and larvae distributions off Peru, and to a comparable study conducted in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem.     

Does the political and economic context influence the success of a transport project? An analysis of transport public-private partnerships

The construction and provision of infrastructure services such as transport nowadays is often based on a partnership between three main actors: public sector, private sector and multilateral lenders, under a framework of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs). This type of partnership has been employed in a wide range of projects in the transport sector and in various contexts in developing and developed countries. Given this observation, the objective of this paper is to examine how countries’ economic and political characteristics contribute to the success of PPPs in transport investments. Special focus in the analysis is given to how the perception of corruption and democratic accountability may influence the success of a PPP project in different transport sectors. We examine a database with 856 transport PPP projects using a generalized linear model in the form of a logit model in order to evaluate the transport database covering data from 72 countries, classified in six regions. The study highlights the importance of national experience. Not only does national macroeconomic experience appear to have a relevant role, but so also does its past experience (either positive or negative) of transport PPP projects. An interesting finding from the analysis is the importance of the rest of the world’s perception of a country’s level of corruption and democratic accountability for the final outcome of a PPP project.     

EXTREMELY LOW FREQUENCY MAGNETIC FIELD SUSCEPTIBILITY OF VISUAL DISPLAY UNITS

IntroductionCathode ray tube (CRT) based visual displayunit(VDU) is one of the basic components of per-sonal computers.Extremely low frequency(ELF,3～ 3 0 0 Hz) magnetic field interference to VDUs isexperienced in some critical environments such asin power plants,substations,and offices nearheavy current carrying conductors.In such envi-ronments,5 0 Hz power frequency and harmonic(especially3 rd harmonic) fiequency magnetic fieldsare dominative and can be significant.VDUs dis-turbed by …     

Determinants of Indian sub-continent officer–seafarer retention in the shipping industry

The retention of officer–seafarers within the international shipping industry is a difficult problem facing shipping and ship management companies. One strategic option open to all companies that should improve overall retention is to seek to become an employer of choice by providing an intellectual capital environment attractive to officer–seafarers. This is investigated through a survey of officer–seafarers covering areas where ship management can exercise some control over their working conditions. These cover recognition by their employer and commensurate rewards, organizational culture and structure and building relationships with external parties. Experienced Indian sub-continent officer–seafarers were the sample population resulting in more than 200 valid completions. These were analysed using correlation and regression. Although all hypotheses were in the predicted direction, only four passed the significance test: long-term career prospects, a smooth and fair recruitment process, a better relationship with maritime authorities and an employee-friendly organizational culture. Stepwise regression indicated that only organizational culture had a significant positive effect on intention to remain a seafarer. The items in the organizational culture construct accord with recommendations from the literature on becoming an employer of choice and improving employee retention, providing guidance for attracting and retaining officers.