Ex-Post Evaluations of Demand Forecast Accuracy: A Literature Review

Abstract

Travel demand forecasts play a crucial role in the preparation of decision support to policy-makers in the field of transport planning. The results feed directly into impact appraisals such as cost–benefit analyses and environmental impact assessments, which are mandatory for large public works projects in many countries. Over the last few decades, there has been increasing attention given to the lack of demand forecast accuracy. However, since data availability for comprehensive ex-post appraisals is problematic, such studies are still relatively rare. This study presents a review of the largest ex-post studies of demand forecast accuracy for transport infrastructure projects. The focus is threefold: to provide an overview of observed levels of demand forecast inaccuracy, to highlight key contextual and methodological differences between studies and to highlight key focus areas for future research in this field. The results show that inaccuracy remains problematic for road, rail and toll projects alike, but also how the lack of methodological clarity and consistency calls for a careful interpretation of these results. Mandatory, systematic ex-post evaluation programmes are suggested as a necessary tool to improve decision support, as data availability for ex-post studies is often remarkably poor even for internal audits.     

Small scale retentive structures and Dinophysis

Despite its rarity, Dinophysis acuminata is in terms of economic impact, the first toxic algal species along the coasts of Western Europe. It is observed at low levels (< 20 cell l^− 1) all the year round but toxic events occur mainly in late spring and summer. D. acuminata ecophysiology is largely unknown due to the inability to culture it. Therefore, standard biomass models based on inorganic nutrition are largely inadequate. Presently, any progress in describing the conditions of population growth of this species will be a step forward to prediction of harmful events at the coast. This species has been observed at increased, albeit low cell densities in retentive eddies located in pycnocline layers. A concentration build-up of one species results from the balance between growth and loss processes, one of the latter being dispersal. The scales of interest for a D. acuminata population are of the order of 10 nautical miles on the horizontal and duration of 10 days, for a reported achievable growth rate of 0.6 day^− 1. A three dimensional (3D) hydrodynamical model of the Bay of Biscay has been elaborated to reproduce hydrological structures over the last decade. We attempt here to relate the existence of retentive structures revealed from simulations under realistic forcing conditions and the toxic coastal events recorded in the 10-year time series of the French plankton monitoring network database. The eddies in the coastal area appear to be directly related with the Dinophysis coastal events and they may be a potential effective tool to predict those.     

Estimating induced travel for evaluation of metropolitan highway expansion

This paper demonstrates how induced travel can be estimated for incorporation into the evaluation process for highway expansion projects, at a sketch planning level of analysis. The approach is useful especially in cases where four-step urban travel models are either unavailable or are unable to forecast the full induced demand effects. The methodology is applied to a hypothetical freeway expansion analysis. Our analysis suggests that the magnitude of travel induced by highway expansion increases significantly as a function of initial congestion levels prior to expansion. However, under even extreme scenarios of initial congestion and consequent forecasted induced travel, there is a positive impact with respect to congestion relief.     

Morphological and biochemical differentiation in Antarctic krill

During the February 1981 cruise FIBEX MD-25 between 30–50°E and 61–64°S, hydrography showed the presence of two gyres, confirmed by the geostrophic circulation relative to 1000 m from Levitus climatology, at the borders of these gyres concentrations of highly morphologically differentiated krill were found. Gaussian component analysis of krill samples, pooled by sectors, showed three cohorts of Euphausia superba in the western sector and one in the eastern sector. Across the sampling area, Thysanoessa macrura and E. superba occurred at separate stations. Analysis of cohorts in T. macrura separated two size groups in both the western and the eastern sectors. The use of a Differentiation Index (D.I.) [Färber-Lorda, J., 1990. Somatic length relationships and ontogenetic morphometric differentiation of Euphausia superba and Thysanoessa macrura of the southwest Indian Ocean during summer (February 1981). Deep-Sea Res. 37, 1135–1143.], based on somatic lengths, allows studying certain morphological differences within the populations sampled. Morphologically different and bigger males II (D.I. from 2.8 to 3.5) were present only in the southern transect while smaller males I (D.I. from 3.5 to 5.0) were present over the entire area. Biochemical composition of both species showed significant differences among stations for protein, lipids, and carbohydrates. A significant difference in lipid content was found between males I, and males II. For T. macrura, percentage of lipid content in mature animals was much higher than that in E. superba. The D.I. size distribution showed that when populations of E. superba were highly differentiated (corresponding to mature animals) in morphology, lipid content was high, and they were located near a gyre. Differences in morphometry can influence distribution of the species, because different developing stages have different swimming capacities. It is shown that, together with hydrography and trophic conditions, lipid content and morphometry of krill populations, are different but complementary aspects that help to understand krill ecology and distribution.     

可预见的无故障切削

每一个加工工艺的目标应该是在保持高生产率和低生产成本的同时,尽可能提高安全性和可预见性。为此,需要考虑以下几个因素：工件的材料、形状和尺寸、机床、CAM系统、工件和刀具的夹紧、切削刀具的选择及使用情况（见图1）。     

多形体筛查

开发一种药物并将其推入市场并不是一件容易的事情，尤其是我们当前所处的环境是在西方的生产标准之下。法律环境和公众意念都对制造业有了很强烈的要求。很少有其它的行业，在被要求快速无误工作的同时，还要面对如此详细的审查和规章制度。那些因操作程序或设计不精确导致后期药物研发终止或临床试验冗余的公司，面临着艰巨的增加上市产品、树立和维持投资者信心的挑战。     

On the Experimental Analysis of Integral Sliding Modes for Yaw Rate and Sideslip Control of an Electric Vehicle with Multiple Motors

With the advent of electric vehicles with multiple motors, the steady-state and transient cornering responses can be designed and implemented through the continuous torque control of the individual wheels, i.e., torque-vectoring or direct yaw moment control. The literature includes several papers on sliding mode control theory for torque-vectoring, but the experimental investigation is so far limited. More importantly, to the knowledge of the authors, the experimental comparison of direct yaw moment control based on sliding modes and typical controllers used for stability control in production vehicles is missing. This paper aims to reduce this gap by presenting and analyzing an integral sliding mode controller for concurrent yaw rate and sideslip control. A new driving mode, the Enhanced Sport mode, is proposed, inducing sustained high values of sideslip angle, which can be limited to a specified threshold. The system is experimentally assessed on a four-wheel-drive electric vehicle. The performance of the integral sliding mode controller is compared with that of a linear quadratic regulator during step steer tests. The results show that the integral sliding mode controller significantly enhances the tracking performance and yaw damping compared to the more conventional linear quadratic regulator based on an augmented singletrack vehicle model formulation.