Interval estimation in the calibration of certain trip distribution models

This paper argues for interval, rather than point, estimation when calibrating some variants of the trip distribution “gravity” models. Analytic expressions are derived for the approximate asymptotic covariances of least squares and maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in the impedance function under a variety of conditions. A comparative numerical example, and an application using migration flows, are also presented.     

基于AFC系统的苏州市轨道交通网络化客流特征分析及启示

从运营轨道线网客流中找寻规律,可以有效指导城市科学合理地预测轨道交通客流。本文根据目前苏州市AFC系统运营数据积累,从网络、线路、车站三个层面探讨苏州市轨道交通客流特征,分析目前线网客流特征,为后续预测模型的参数选择提供参考和依据,并且针对轨道交通规划设计及运营提出相关工作建议。     

Towards comfort-optimal trajectory planning and control

ABSTRACT

This paper describes a method to analyse and evaluate different trajectory planning methods and controller types for usage in automated vehicles. Its application is shown by using a novel trajectory planning approach considering comfort aspects (based on Rapidly Exploring Random Tree (RRT)), two different controllers to follow the planned path (cascade controller and flatness based controller) and a simulation method to obtain resulting lateral vehicle accelerations. The method is used to plan and drive a trajectory through a roundabout. It can be seen that the lateral accelerations of the controller-driven vehicle are in the range of the values used for planning. However, the results of both controllers show differences in lateral deviation and in smoothness of lateral accelerations. The simulation results are then compared to real-world test drives in the same roundabout. The measured lateral accelerations are in the same range as well but show a smoother progression than the two controller models.     

铁路隧道内安全的新UIC规程

关于铁路隧道内安全的新UIC规程适用于新建和既有隧道。该规程制定了可靠的基础设施、车辆和运输调度措施来提高隧道内的安全性,尤其注意了隧道内的防火问题。     

A local model for the simulation of two–dimensional spilling breaking waves

A numerical model for the simulation of two dimensional spilling breaking waves is described. It is derived from a previous model which, in turn, takes its underlying ideas from the Cointe and Tulin theory of steady breakers. With respect to the former model, the present one is local, i.e., the inception, extension, and geometry of the breakers are determined through the local shape of the water surface. The model has been implemented in a RANSE code, which was developed for the simulation of ship flows, through a modification in the boundary conditions. This yields a simple and effective way to reproduce the breakers influence on the underlying flow. The resulting code has been used to simulate the flow past a submerged hydrofoil. The numerical results are compared with those of the previous model and with the experimental data obtained by Duncan.     

Observations on colony formation by the cosmopolitan phytoplankton genus Phaeocystis

Few marine phytoplankton have heteromorphic life cycles and also often dominate the ecosystems in which they occur. The class Prymnesiophyceae contains a notable exception: the genus Phaeocystis includes three species that form gelatinous colonies but also occur within their ranges as solitary cells. Phaeocystis antarctica and P. pouchetii are exclusively high latitude taxa, and are notable for regionally tremendous blooms of the colony stage. P. globosa occurs circumglobally, yet its colony blooms primarily are confined to colder waters within its range. Three additional species are warm water forms that have been reported only as solitary cells or loose aggregations that bear little resemblance to the organized colonies of the other taxa. Interpretation of existing data indicates that resource availability (light, temperature and nutrients) by itself is not sufficient to explain this distinction between cold-water colony-forming taxa and warm water solitary cell taxa, nor why colony development in P. globosa is essentially a spatially restricted phenomenon within a much broader geographic range. Colony development by P. globosa in situ has been observed at temperatures ≥20 °C, but only rarely and generally under conditions of seasonally or anthropogenically elevated nutrient supply. Data presented here demonstrate colony development at 20–22 °C in natural plankton communities from oligotrophic waters that were pre-screened through 63 μm mesh (i.e. lacking mesozooplankton and large microzooplankton), but not in unscreened communities containing microzooplankton and >63 μm zooplankton. Reduction of colony proliferation at higher temperatures by mesozooplankton grazing remains as an intriguing possibility that is consistent with available evidence to help explain differences in latitudinal extent of in situ colony development. These data are interpreted within a theoretical framework regarding the potential advantages and disadvantages of the two life cycle stages.     

Bottom slamming on heaving point absorber wave energy devices

Oscillating point absorber buoys may rise out of the water and be subjected to bottom slamming upon re-entering the water. Numerical simulations are performed to estimate the power absorption, the impact velocities and the corresponding slamming forces for various slamming constraints. Three buoy shapes are considered: a hemisphere and two conical shapes with deadrise angles of 30° and 45°, with a waterline diameter of 5 m. The simulations indicate that the risk of rising out of the water is largely dependent on the buoy draft and sea state. Although associated with power losses, emergence occurrence probabilities can be significantly reduced by adapting the control parameters. The magnitude of the slamming load is severely influenced by the buoy shape. The ratio between the peak impact load on the hemisphere and that on the 45° cone is approximately 2, whereas the power absorption is only 4–8% higher for the 45° cone. This work illustrates the need to include slamming considerations aside from power absorption criteria in the buoy shape design process and the control strategy.     

An approach to estimation of near-surface turbulence and CO2 transfer velocity from remote sensing data

The air–sea CO₂ exchange is primarily determined by the boundary-layer processes in the near-surface layer of the ocean since it is a water-side limited gas. As a consequence, the interfacial component of the CO₂ transfer velocity can be linked to parameters of turbulence in the near-surface layer of the ocean. The development of remote sensing techniques provides a possibility to quantify the dissipation of the turbulent kinetic energy in the near-surface layer of the ocean and the air–sea CO₂ transfer velocity on a global scale. In this work, the dissipation rate of the turbulent kinetic energy in the near-surface layer of the ocean and its patchiness has been linked to the air–sea CO₂ transfer velocity with a boundary-layer type model. Field observations of upper ocean turbulence, laboratory studies, and the direct CO₂ flux measurements are used to validate the model. The model is then forced with the TOPEX POSEIDON wind speed and significant wave height to demonstrate its applicability for estimating the distribution of the near-surface turbulence dissipation rate and gas transfer velocity for an extended (decadal) time period. A future version of this remote sensing algorithm will incorporate directional wind/wave data being available from QUIKSCAT, a now-cast wave model, and satellite heat fluxes. The inclusion of microwave imagery from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) will provide additional information on the fractional whitecap coverage and sea surface turbulence patchiness.     

Transient responses of a VLFS during landing and take-off of an airplane

The transient elastic deformation of a pontoon-type very large floating structure (VLFS) caused by the landing and take-off of an airplane is computed by the time-domain mode-expansion method. The memory effects in hydrodynamic forces are taken into account, and great care is paid to numerical accuracy in evaluating all the coefficients appearing in the simultaneous differential equations for the elastic motion of a VLFS. The time-histories of the imparted force and the position and velocity of an airplane during landing and take-off are modeled with data from a Boeing 747-400 jumbo jet. Simulation results are shown of 3-D structural waves on a VLFS and the associated unsteady drag force on an airplane, which is of engineering importance, particularly during take-off. The results for landing show that the airplane moves faster than the structural waves generated in the early stage, and the waves overtake the airplane as its speed decreases to zero. The results for take-off are essentially the same as those for landing, except that the structural waves develop slowly in the early stage, and no obstacle exists on the runway after the take-off of airplane. The additional drag force on an airplane due to the elastic responses of the runway considered in this work was found to be small in magnitude.