Validating the results of a route choice simulator

This paper describes the validation of a route choice simulator known as VLADIMIR (Variable Legend Assessment Device for Interactive Measurement of Individual Route choice). VLADIMIR is an interactive computer-based tool designed to study drivers’ route choice behaviour. It has been extensively used to obtain data on route choice in the presence of information sources such as Variable Message Signs or In-Car Navigation devices. The simulator uses a sequence of digitized photographs to portray a real network with junctions, links, landmarks and road signs. Subject drivers are invited to make journeys between specified origins and destinations under a range of travel scenarios, during which the simulator automatically records their route choices. This paper describes validation experiments carried out during the period Summer 1994 to Autumn 1995 and reports on the results obtained. Each experiment involved a comparison of routes selected in real life with those driven under simulated conditions in VLADIMIR. The analysis included investigation of the subjects’ own assessment of the realism of the VLADIMIR routes they had chosen, a comparison of models based on the real life routes with models based on VLADIMIR routes, and a statistical comparison of the two sets of routes. After an extensive series of data collection exercises and analyses, we have concluded that a well designed simulator is able to replicate real life route choices with a very high degree of detail and accuracy. Not only was VLADIMIR able to precisely replicate the route choices of drivers who were familiar with the network but it also appears capable of representing the kind of errors made and route choice strategies adopted by less familiar drivers. Furthermore, evidence is presented to suggest that it can accurately replicate route choice responses to roadside VMS information.     

Composite front maps for improved visibility of dynamic sea-surface features on cloudy SeaWiFS and AVHRR data

Novel techniques have been developed for increasing the value of cloud-affected sequences of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sea-surface temperature (SST) data and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) ocean colour data for visualising dynamic physical and biological oceanic processes such as fronts, eddies and blooms. The proposed composite front map approach is to combine the location, strength and persistence of all fronts observed over several days into a single map, which allows intuitive interpretation of mesoscale structures. This method achieves a synoptic view without blurring dynamic features, an inherent problem with conventional time-averaging compositing methods. Objective validation confirms a significant improvement in feature visibility on composite maps compared to individual front maps. A further novel aspect is the automated detection of ocean colour fronts, correctly locating 96% of chlorophyll fronts in a test data set. A sizeable data set of 13,000 AVHRR and 1200 SeaWiFS scenes automatically processed using this technique is applied to the study of dynamic processes off the Iberian Peninsula such as mesoscale eddy generation, and many additional applications are identified. Front map animations provide a unique insight into the evolution of upwelling and eddies.     

Seaports and the structural implications of the economic crisis

The 2008 credit crunch and the subsequent economic crisis ended a period that lasted over two decades wherein international seaports around the globe experienced double-digit volume increases. This chapter provides an analysis of the structural effects that the crisis has on seaports, focusing mostly on developments in Europe. It does so via an examination of (a) the crisis implication for each of the four major types of transport flows that account for the vast majority of port throughput worldwide; (b) the prospects for future capacity organisation and development, given the realignment of the involvement strategies that the various stakeholders (i.e., governments, port authorities, service providers, users, investors) endorse in reaction to the financial tsunami; and (c) the adjustment opportunities, that the trade downturn unintentionally provides, allowing for correction of existing misallocations in the sector via the deployment of relevant adjustment strategies by the related actors. Recapping the identified structural consequences, the final section concludes on the changing role and responsibilities of port authorities and the ‘new issues’ that will require further investigation in the post-financial tsunami era.     

城市水岸再开发:中国临水城市发展的下一个前沿

战结束后不久,水岸再开发这一概念就成为了西方国家关注的焦点,因为很多城市都开始考虑该如何对待那些已经变得如此刺眼的水岸区域.     

观市2011

全球经济机遇与挑战并存2011年全球经济复苏呈现双轨态势.国际货币基金组织(IMP)预测2011年和2012年新兴经济体和发展中国家将保持在6.5%的增长水平,略低于2010年7%的增速,其中增速最快的仍是亚洲发展中国家的中国和印度.2011年和2012年发达国家经济将增长2.5%.     

地图商如何掘金手机GPS市场

第四十三届世界通信大会于5月在北京举行，这是IEEE旗下通信领域最具权威的学术会议首次在我国举行。在我国，车载导航近年来取得了很好的市场效益。随着技术的进步，手机＋GPS逐渐成为热点。     

Guidelines for samplers: measuring a change in behaviour from before and after surveys

This paper addresses the issue of using before and after surveys to evaluate behavioural changes in response to transport policies and investments, a procedure that, we argue is done far too rarely in this profession. Further, it demonstrates very clearly that, in almost all conceivable cases, there are considerable economies to be obtained by using a panel (again, under-utilised in our profession) to undertake evaluation, rather than successive independent cross-sectional surveys. The paper also addresses the critical issue of sample size requirements for measuring changes of a relatively small magnitude in travel behaviour; i.e., to state, with 95% confidence, that if there is a ∂ percent change in behaviour for the sample, there is a ∂ percent ± e percent change in the behaviour of the population, where e is the sampling error. In this paper, we present a method for calculating such sample size requirements from first principles and demonstrate the applicability both hypothetically and then empirically using data from the Puget Sound Transportation Panel. The formulation enables designers of before and after surveys to investigate the trade-offs between the statistical accuracy of their predictions and the sample size requirements systematically, without the need to specify ∂ a priori. This latter point is crucial, we argue, because we have limited information on ∂, yet, as we explain here, it drives the sample size requirements using alternative, well-cited approaches for calculating sample sizes to assess behavioural change. The results have important ramifications both for those implementing transport policies intended to produce behavioural change, especially when a cost-benefit evaluation of the policy is desired, and for those interpreting the results reported in previous studies.     

An inverse model for calculation of global volume transport from wind and hydrographic data

The P-vector inverse method has been successfully used to invert the absolute velocity from hydrographic data for the extra-equatorial hemispheres, but not for the equatorial region since it is based on the geostrophic balance. A smooth interpolation scheme across the equator is developed in this study to bring together the two already known solutions (P-vectors) for the extra-equatorial hemispheres. This model contains four major components: (a) the P-vector inverse model to obtain the solutions for the two extra-equatorial hemispheres, (b) the objective method to determine the Ψ-values at individual islands, (c) the Poisson equation-solver to obtain the Π-values over the equatorial region from the volume transport vorticity equation, and (d) the Poisson equation-solver to obtain the Ψ and depth-integrated velocity field (U, V) over the globe from the Poisson Ψ-equation. The Poisson equation-solver is similar to the box model developed by Wunsch. Thus, this method combines the strength from both box and P-vector models. The calculated depth-integrated velocity and Ψ-field agree well with earlier studies.     

The application of cost-benefit analysis to transport investment projects in Britain

This paper explains the need for the application of cost-benefit analysis to the evaluation of alternative projects for investment in the transport field and outlines briefly the historical development of the technique. The results of a comparative survey of a number of cost-benefit studies which have been carried out in Britain and some conclusions as to their thoroughness and comprehensiveness (or otherwise) are presented. The article concludes with a number of specific and detailed recommendations to remedy apparent methodological weaknesses. Six of these recommendations seem to merit particular attention:

1. The viewpoint of most studies should be extended so as to avoid confinement, for example, within an arbitrary local government boundary, and a wider range of “externalities” should be considered. Intangibles should be included explicitly in all such evaluation exercises.
2. The actual incidence of costs and benefits should be examined in order to indicate the directional impact of the project and its implications in terms of equity. The elimination of transfer payments and double-counting should be postponed until the latest possible stage in the evaluation.
3. Equity considerations should be investigated in any transportation plan, since most projects have considerable equity implications for particular areas or socio-economic groups.
4. Discounted cash flow techniques, which are still used only in a minority of transportation studies, should become standard practice. Most evaluations are based on a single-year rate of return, or at best on simple trend forecasting. More resources should be devoted to proper evaluation of alternative plans which give due importance to the cost and benefit streams through time.
5. Sensitivity analysis should be used in all transportation evaluations. Knowledge of the impact of different assignments, shadow prices, and discount rates are essential information for any decisionmaker.
6. Last, but not least, much greater communication should exist between analyst and decisionmaker than has existed in the past.

     

锋锐设计

新马自达的首席设计师前田育男儿时,便从父亲手上收到了一份礼物——阿梅兰拆信刀。这把由著名的意大利设计师恩佐·马里于1962年推出的拆信刀是用一片不锈钢制成的,刀身中间有所扭曲。几十年后,这把拆信刀成为了马自达全新设计理念魂动的灵感来源。阿梅兰拆信刀设计简单,充满美感,易于使用。我那时意识到,设计就是要做到这几