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81.
Andrew R. Fallon Di Jin William Phalen G. Gray Fitzsimons Christopher J. Hein 《Coastal management》2017,45(5):360-383
Coastal barrier systems around the world are experiencing higher rates of flooding and shoreline erosion. Property owners on barriers have made significant financial investments in physical protections that shield their nearby properties from these hazards, constituting a type of adaptation to shoreline change. Factors that contribute to adaptation on Plum Island, a developed beach and dune system on the North Shore of Massachusetts, are investigated here. Plum Island experiences patterns of shoreline change that may be representative of many inlet-associated beaches, encompassing an equivocal and dynamically shifting mix of erosion and accretion. In the face of episodic floods and fleeting erosive events, and driven by a combination of strong northeast storms and cycles of erosion and accretion, the value of the average Plum Island residence increases by 34% for properties on the oceanfront where protection comprises a publicly constructed soft structure. Even in the face of state policies that ostensibly discourage physical protection as a means of adaptation, coastal communities face significant political and financial pressures to maintain existing protective structures or to allow contiguous groups of property owners to build new ones through collective action. These factors mitigate against adapting to shoreline change by retreating from the coast, thereby potentially increasing the adverse effects of coastal hazards. 相似文献
82.
Within the literature concerned with aspects of competitiveness, innovation and strategic management of industrial clusters, the body regarding forecasting of strategic management is still nascent. This work aspires to render a contribution within the domain of strategic management forecasting, through the indicative case of European maritime clusters. For this end, a two-tier model is formulated. A quantitative strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) methodology that derives from the fusion of a quondam situation analysis and crosstabs’ theory is generated. This leads to the utilization of the crosstab’s conditional probabilities as transition probabilities; the latter are called to compile the transition matrix of a Markov chain. Through this methodology, and the successive Markov chain’s transition matrices, strategic forecasts are extracted for a devised European maritime cluster case. This work relinquishes a novel application with respect to strategic management forecasting, that provides a dichotomy of practical interpretations and scenarios for quantitative situation analysis. Thus, it may enable effective real-time decision-making for strategic management and/or policy drafting. The situation analysis forecasting model may find applicability in a plethora of practical and theoretical cases, wherein forecasting may be desirable. It may as well pertain to an intrinsic methodology for situation analysis forecasting of maritime clusters. 相似文献
83.
Livelihood diversity factors such as flexibility within fisheries, geographical mobility, reallocation of fishing effort into the broader economy, and the non-material benefits that fisheries provide are important areas of research in marine policy. We use two small-scale fisheries related socio-economic surveys of communities in the Tigak Islands of Papua New Guinea. The first conducted 5 years before a ban on the harvesting of sea cucumbers was imposed and the second from the present day, 5 years after the initiation of the ban—with the objectives of exploring changes in household fishing strategies (types and numbers of species targeted) and to identify any important socioeconomic factors that help explain those changes. Fishing's contribution to total household income has increased significantly (p = 0.019) up from 61% in 2004 to 73% in 2014 with the percentage of female residents living in a household now positively and significantly (p = 0.018) associated with fishing income. The average number of species categories targeted per household increased insignificantly while households with more women are significantly (p = 0.018) less likely to target more species than households with more men. Moreover, customary management practices contribute to this difference. Together, these results show that households are not worse off financially 5 years after the ban on sea cucumber harvesting and that gendered seascape use has implications for the role of livelihood diversity as a marine policy tool. 相似文献
84.
A key factor in determining the performance of a railway system is the speed profile of the trains within the network. There can be significant variation in this speed profile for identical trains on identical routes, depending on how the train is driven. A better understanding and control of speed profiles can therefore offer significant potential for improvements in the performance of railway systems. This paper develops a model to allow the variability of real-life driving profiles of railway vehicles to be quantitatively described and predicted, in order to better account for the effects on the speed profile of the train and hence the performance of the railway network as a whole. The model is validated against data from the Tyne and Wear Metro, and replicates the measured data to a good degree of accuracy. 相似文献
85.
Matthew J. BeckJohn M. Rose David A. Hensher 《Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice》2012,46(1):226-239
Data is typically gathered from an individual respondent who represents the group or the household. This individual is often identified as the “primary decision maker” and is asked to provide responses as a proxy for the group given that the cost of interviewing each member individually is impractical and/or expensive. The collection of joint preferences is rarely undertaken, with the use of proxy responses not uncommon in travel behaviour research. Under such a framework, there exists an assumption that the primary decision maker has perfect knowledge of other group member preferences, and bargaining behaviour, and is able to synthesise this information when providing a response on their behalf. The validity of such an assumption however remains an open question, with recent research calling the reliability of proxy responses into account (Bateman and Munro, 2009). In this paper, using three models estimated in willingness to pay space, we examine the accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice experiment. We find that there is overlap between a proxy response and the own preferences of the individual providing the proxy choice, but while the proxy responses fail to represent the full preference heterogeneity that exists in the actual choices made by individuals, the proxy responses in aggregate provide a suitable replacement for actual data, subject to a number of caveats. 相似文献
86.
E. Freitas C. Mendonça J.A. Santos C. MurteiraJ.P. Ferreira 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》2012,17(4):321-326
In this paper, annoyance ratings from traffic noise recorded on cobblestones, dense asphalt, and open asphalt rubber pavements are assessed with regard to car speeds and traffic densities. It was found that cobblestones pavements are the most annoying; also while open asphalt rubber pavement imposes less annoyance than dense asphalt it is not significantly different. Higher car speeds always lead to greater annoyance, as does higher traffic densities. LAeq and LAmax correlate well with annoyance, but loudness is the best predictor. Roughness and sharpness exhibit inconsistent interactions. 相似文献
87.
Modelling the impact of weather conditions on active transportation travel behaviour 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Sheyda Saneinejad Matthew J. RoordaChristopher Kennedy 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》2012,17(2):129-137
Three weather sensitive models are used to explore the relationship between weather and home-based work trips within the City of Toronto, focusing on active modes of transportation. The data are restricted to non-captive commuters who have the option of selecting among five basic modes of auto driver, auto passenger, transit, bike and walk. Daily trip rates in various weather conditions are assessed. Overall, the results confirm that impact of weather on active modes of transportation is significant enough to deserve attention at the research, data collection and planning levels. 相似文献
88.
The robustness of questionnaire results to various forms of bias are explored in the context of a dual-mode (web and hardcopy)
survey of employers’ anticipations of levels of employee commuting and business travel activity under a range of future ICT
scenarios. The questionnaire incorporated several innovative features which, together with the dual-mode format, allowed an
unusually wide range of analyses. For example: the robustness of respondents’ opinions was tested by examining the effect
of incorporating alternative versions of a briefing text, one being very positive and one very negative, about the role of
ICT; instrument bias was identified via detailed comparison of the results from the two versions of the questionnaire; and
the impact of exogenous factors which are often ignored or taken as constant was assessed via special supplementary questions.
Analysis showed that the robustness of opinions and expectations varied and was influenced by respondent characteristics,
and that results from the two versions of the questionnaire differed significantly. It is concluded that opinions and expectations
are less robust, and questionnaire results are more subject to bias and myopic interpretation, than is generally recognised
and that web-based surveys seem particularly vulnerable to sampling bias. Methods are suggested for measuring robustness,
for reducing bias and for validating and contextualising results. The use of contrasting briefing texts is recommended as
a means of establishing the robustness of opinions and expectations while supplementary questions are recommended for validating
and contextualising SP and SE exercises.
Peter Bonsall Professor of Transport Planning at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. His research interests include: use of innovative data sources, microsimulation, multi-criteria appraisal of policy interventions, travellers’ perception of modal attributes, their ability to cope with uncertainty and complexity and their response to new information and charges. Jeremy Shires Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. His research interests include behavioural modelling, the impact of “soft factors” on travel, stated preference design and public transport demand modelling. 相似文献
Peter BonsallEmail: |
Peter Bonsall Professor of Transport Planning at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. His research interests include: use of innovative data sources, microsimulation, multi-criteria appraisal of policy interventions, travellers’ perception of modal attributes, their ability to cope with uncertainty and complexity and their response to new information and charges. Jeremy Shires Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. His research interests include behavioural modelling, the impact of “soft factors” on travel, stated preference design and public transport demand modelling. 相似文献
89.
Dongjoo Park Laurence R. Rilett Byron J. Gajewski Clifford H. Spiegelman Changho Choi 《Transportation》2009,36(1):77-95
With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers
have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current
conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal
aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route
travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology
explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed
for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation
size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor,
(2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel
time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston,
Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It
was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.
相似文献
Changho ChoiEmail: |
90.
The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Mark J. Koetse Piet Rietveld 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》2009,14(3):205-221
This paper presents a survey of the empirical literature on the effects of climate change and weather conditions on the transport sector. Despite mixed evidence on many issues, several patterns can be observed. On a global scale especially shifts in tourism and agricultural production due to increased temperatures may lead to shifts in passenger and freight transport. The predicted rise in sea levels and the associated increase in frequency and intensity of storm surges and flooding incidences may furthermore be some of the most worrying consequences of climate change, especially for coastal areas. Climate change related shifts in weather patterns might also cause infrastructure disruptions. Clear patterns are that precipitation affects road safety by increasing accident frequency but decreasing severity. Precipitation also increases congestion, especially during peak hours. Furthermore, an increased frequency of low water levels may considerably increase costs of inland waterway transport. Despite these insights, the net impact of climate change on generalised costs of the various transport modes are uncertain and ambiguous, with a possible exception for inland waterway transport. 相似文献