Effects of information in road transport networks with recurrent congestion

This paper aims to gain more insight into the implications of information provision to drivers on the performance of road transport networks with recurrent congestion. For this purpose, a simulation program consisting of three components has been written. The first component is the traffic simulation model, the second component is the information provision mechanism, and the third component monitors the behavioural decision-making process of the drivers, which is modelled using a utility-based satisficing principle. Three types of information provision mechanisms will be considered: information based upon own-experience, after-trip information and real-time en route information. The findings in this paper, obtained in a hypothetical context, underline the important relationship betweenoverreaction, thelevel of market penetration and thequality of the information. High quality information allows a high level of market penetration, while low quality information, even when provided at low levels of market penetration, induces overreaction. Furthermore, real-time en route information is in particular beneficial during the process leading to a steady state; it reduces the variance in travel time considerably. The paper concludes with a discussion on the market potential of motorist information systems when commercially marketed.     

Interval estimation in the calibration of certain trip distribution models

This paper argues for interval, rather than point, estimation when calibrating some variants of the trip distribution “gravity” models. Analytic expressions are derived for the approximate asymptotic covariances of least squares and maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in the impedance function under a variety of conditions. A comparative numerical example, and an application using migration flows, are also presented.     

Framework for designing sample travel surveys for transport demand modelling in cities

Transportation - Travel surveys in cities remain the main source of information for obtaining people’s trip characteristics and developing transport models that serve to predict the...     

European freight transport and the environment: empirical applications and scenarios

Environmental issues have received a prominent place in transport policies of most European countries. The coordination of such policies however, is fraught with many difficulties. The increasing freight flows after the European integration are a source of concern, but have not yet led to straightforward and effective environmental strategies.The paper focuses on the Trans Alpine freight transport systems in the light of the future integration of single national transport systems into the European transport network. The environmental, social and institutional peculiarities of this ‘region’ have favoured—in the past—the development of strong nationally-oriented policies, partly in contrast with the goals promoted by the European Union. The present analysis aims to highlight opportunities, and limits inherent, in the implementation of various infrastructure projects oriented towards a drastic change of the Alpine transport systems structure. The Alpine countries, viz. Austria and Switzerland, play a central role in the promotion of environmental benign modes of transport of goods, with a clear focus on rail. The route choice and modal split of freight flows in Europe are taking place simultaneously. In this paper the results of European freight flow models (based on logit analysis and neural networks) will be presented. An important exercise is then to assess the consequences of various types of eco-taxes on road transport in Europe. In this context, several policy scenarios will be dealt with.     

Correlation between automotive CO, HC, NO, and PM emission factors from on-road remote sensing: implications for inspection and maintenance programs

Carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbon (HC), and nitrogen oxide (NO) emission factors (EFs) are measured with a commercial vehicle emissions remote sensing system (VERSS) during a large-scale vehicle exhaust emissions study in Las Vegas. Particulate matter (PM) EFs are simultaneously measured for individual vehicles with a newly developed PM-VERSS based on ultraviolet backscatter light detection and ranging (Lidar). The effectiveness of CO and HC EFs as proxy for NO and PM EFs for spark-ignition vehicles is evaluated. Poor correlations were found between EFs for pollutants on an individual vehicle basis indicating that high EFs for one or more pollutants cannot be used as a predictor of high EFs for other pollutants. Stronger functional relationships became evident after averaging the EF data in bins based on rank-order of a single pollutant EF. Low overlap between the highest 10% emitters for CO, HC, NO, and PM was found. These results imply that for an effective reduction of the four pollutants, inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs, including clean screening, should measure all four pollutants individually. Fleet average CO and HC concentrations determined by gaseous VERSS were compared with fleet average CO and HC concentrations measured at low-idle and at high-idle during local I/M tests for spark-ignition vehicles. The fleet average CO concentrations measured by I/M tests at either idle were about half of those measured by remote sensing. The fleet average high-idle HC concentration measured by I/M tests was about half of that measured by VERSS while low-idle I/M and VERSS HC average concentrations were in better agreement. For a typical vehicle trip, most of the fuel is burned during non-idle conditions. I/M measurements collected during idling conditions may not be a good indicator of a vehicle’s potential to be a high emitter. VERSS measurements, when the vehicle is under a load, should more effectively identify high emitting vehicles that have a large contribution to the mobile emissions inventory.     

A model for work activity schedules with synchronization for multiple-worker households

This paper presents a hybrid discrete choice-duration model for work activity scheduling with interactions between workers in a multiple-worker household. The model operates in discrete space with a fine level of temporal resolution. The key innovative feature of the model is the introduction of intra-household interactions through worker schedule synchronization mechanisms. The model was estimated based on a large Household Travel Survey from the San Francisco Bay Area. The estimation results confirmed that individual work schedules for workers in a multiple-worker household are subject to strong synchronization and should be modelled jointly rather than independently. In particular, workers in the same household tend to align their schedules and create time window overlaps for joint activities before and after work. Relative strength of the synchronization mechanisms proved to be a function of the person characteristics and household composition.     

Analyzing fluctuations in car-following

Many car-following models predict a stable car-following behavior with a very small fluctuation around an equilibrium value g¹ of the net headway g with zero speed-difference Δv between the following and the lead vehicle. However, it is well-known and additionally demonstrated by data in this paper, that the fluctuations are much larger than these models predict. Typically, the fluctuation in speed difference is around ±2 m/s, while the fluctuation in the net time headway T = g/v can be as big as one or even two seconds, which is as large as the mean time headway itself. By analyzing data from loop detectors as well as data from vehicle trajectories, evidence is provided that this randomness is not due to driver heterogeneity, but can be attributed to an internal stochasticity of the driver itself. A final model-based analysis supports the hypothesis, that the preferred headway of the driver is the parameter that is not kept constant but fluctuates strongly, thus causing the even macroscopically observable randomness in traffic flow.     

Transport reviews prize

This paper reviews the provision of public transport in the Cape Town Metropolitan Area and the proposals for its future development. A vitally distinguishing characteristic of public transport in Cape Town and other South African cities is the fractured market with great discrepancies between different segments. These range from those with high incomes and preferences similar to those found in typically First World countries to a great majority living at or below minimum poverty levels with virtually no choices and a very different set of needs and preferences. Although scope for improving service levels and satisfying user needs is unlimited, in South Africa resources for transport are facing severe competition from other macrolevel social and economic imperatives, such as combating crime and addressing discrepancies in health and education needs. This situation represents a huge challenge to those responsible for planning and developing public transport strategies. Evidence is presented that current public transport services are unsustainable in terms of increasing subsidy requirements while also not effectively meeting user needs. Proposals to restructure the public transport system and to use Stated Preference techniques to identify user needs are put forward. Given the fractured market for public transport in metropolitan Cape Town, Stated Preference techniques will require innovative adaptations and different approaches to those most commonly applied elsewhere in the world and this paper provides some broad guidelines.     

A flexible terminal/mobile lounge system for expanding the capacity of existing airports

One of the great dilemmas facing major airports is the problem of capacity and seasonal surges of activity. This paper suggests a system of small, inexpensive Airport Terminal Modules, which together with a new type of Mobile Lounge, could make available a considerable degree of flexibility. The ATM's are designed to allow maximum variations of aircraft type and passenger load as well as high ground utilization. This concept would allow major airports to be extended with a minimum of inconvenience as demand becomes apparent, thereby allowing financial expenditure to be carefully controlled and more evenly spread.