Uncertain benefits: Application of Bayesian melding to the Alaskan Way Viaduct in Seattle

Uncertainty is inherent in major infrastructure projects, but public decision-making for such projects ignores it. We investigate the uncertainty about the future effects of tearing down the Alaskan Way Viaduct in downtown Seattle, using an integrated model of housing, jobs, land use and transportation, on outcomes including average commute times. Our methodology combines the urban simulation model UrbanSim with the regional transportation model. We assess uncertainty using Bayesian melding, yielding a full predictive distribution of average commute times on 22 different routes in 2020. Of these routes, 14 do not include the viaduct and eight do. For the 14 base routes that do not include the viaduct, the predictive distributions overlap substantially, and so there is no indication that removing the viaduct would increase commute times for these routes. For each of the eight routes that do include the viaduct, the 95% predictive interval for the difference in average travel times between the two scenarios includes zero, so there is not strong statistical support for the conclusion that removing the viaduct would lead to any increase in travel times. However, the median predicted increase is positive for each of these routes, with an average of 6 min, suggesting that there may be some measurable increase in travel time for drivers that use the viaduct as a core component of their commute.     

Wave impact underneath horizontal decks

The problem of water impact on a fixed horizontal platform deck from regular incident waves was studied. Two-dimensional potential flow was assumed, and the resulting boundary-value problem was solved by three alternative numerical methods, a method based on a generalization of the impact theory by Wagner, and two different nonlinear boundary-element methods. The Wagner-based method used a von Karman approach during the water exit phase, i.e., when the wetted surface decreases. Experiments of the impact on an idealized platform deck have been performed to validate the theory. Comparisons show that the Wagner-based method yields good results for the water entry phase, when the wetted deck area increases, but poor results when the wetted area diminishes. The boundary-element methods compare well with experiments for the entire impact process. A Kutta condition is necessary at the aft body–free surface intersection during water exit and when the flow separates from the aft edge. Gravity effects matter for the water exit phase.     

Evaluation of marine radar as an ocean-wave-field detector through full numerical simulation

The importance of ocean waves parameters (propagation direction, mean period, significant wave height, etc.) is related to several aspects of a ships safety, efficiency in operation, routing, design, and maintenance. However, some available methods for obtaining those parameters have data limitations and inconvenient aspects. In severe weather conditions, an ocean-wave-field detector is necessary. This can provide two-dimensional ocean-wave-field information directly. Among other conventional methods, ship-borne wave radar has the ability to function as such a detector, and some researchers have tried to develop practical systems. A numerical approach using plan position indicator (PPI) images from conventional marine radars is proposed to retrieve valuable information from the ocean waves. A three-dimensional Fourier transform is applied to a set of consecutive radar PPI images to perform spectrum analysis. The removal of undesired elements in the spectrum is achieved by applying a hi-pass filter to remove static components, and by comparing the data with the expected dispersion shell to correct for nonocean-wave power. Numerical experiments under controlled conditions using simulated PPI images were performed through numerical simulations based on theoretical ocean-wave equations. The results include a comparison between the original wave parameters used in the simulation and the values retrieved from the spectrum analysis.     

Author Index Volume 30 2003

Authors Index

Author Index Volume 30 2003     

Ship selection using a multiple-criteria synthesis approach

A method is presented for selecting a preferred ship from a group of candidates as a reference ship for a new design. The method is based on a recently developed approach for multiple-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty, the evidential reasoning approach. Using this method, both quantitative and qualitative attributes of a complicated nature can be considered in the selection process. The method consists of three phases: identifying suitable candidate ships, evaluating them in terms of both conventional techno-economical and qualitative attributes, and aggregating all the attributes using the evidential reasoning approach. This three-phase procedure is illustrated by means of an oil tanker selection example. The results of this study show that the evidential reasoning approach can support multiple-criteria ship selection processes when both qualitative and quantitative information with or without uncertainties have to be taken into account. The outcomes generated by the method include the ranking of the candidate ships and indications of their strengths and weaknesses in the format of performance distributions over different assessment grades. Such information is vital in helping decision makers to make an informed selection and be aware of any risk implication associated with the selection.     

Network reliability‐based optimal toll design

Optimal toll design from a network reliability point of view is addressed in this paper. Improving network reliability is proposed as a policy objective of road pricing. A reliability‐based optimal toll design model, where on the upper level network performance including travel time reliability is optimized, while on the lower level a dynamic user‐equilibrium is achieved, is presented. Road authorities aim to optimize network travel time reliability by setting tolls in a network design problem. Travelers are influenced by these tolls and make route and trip decisions by considering travel times and tolls. Network performance reliability is analyzed for a degradable network with elastic and fluctuated travel demand, which integrates reliability and uncertainty, dynamic network equilibrium models, and Monte Carlo methods. The proposed model is applied to a small hypothesized network for which optimal tolls are derived. The network travel time reliability is indeed improved after implementing optimal tolling system. Trips may have a somewhat higher, but more reliable, travel time.     

Applying social marginal cost pricing in rail PPPs: Present state, drawbacks and ways forward

The application of social marginal cost pricing (SMCP) in PPP's in the railway sector faces several challenges. We examine in detail the practical applicability of SMCP in railway PPPs from the perspectives of cost accounting and effectiveness of SMCP towards the allocative efficiency goal, addressing the likely drawbacks in conciliating the welfare objectives of SMCP with the objectives of project financing (cost recovery) and value for money that justify the realization of PPP's. To this end, we combine theoretical analysis with the observation of empirical results of a case study. We split the analysis per type of private service provision, which can be for service operation or infrastructure management. For infrastructure management, we recommend splitting the operator remuneration and the track access charges. For service operation, we argue that the correct decision on source of funding of the service operator should depend on the characteristics of the contract.     

Measurements of Emissions to Air from a Marine Engine Fueled by Methanol

Emissions of exhaust gases and particulate matter from a dual fuel marine engine using methanol as fuel with marine gasoil as pilot fuel have been examined for ...     

适用于高性能车载计算平台的自适应AUTOSAR

正自适应AUTOSAR为实现车辆ECU软件的更大灵活性打下了坚实的基础。这些系统是可扩展的,是全自动和联网驾驶方向的重要一步。自适应AUTOSAR不是替代经典AUTOSAR,它的优势在于2种标准的巧妙结合。自动驾驶对车辆内部E/E架构提出了更高要求。自动驾驶功能需要越来越强大的控制单元,且越来越多地相互联网,并与基础设施(如云端系统)联网(图1)。通过使用来自各种车辆传感器以及外部(例如高精确地图资料)的数据,软件可创     

Numerical Investigation of Sloshing Under Roll Excitation at Shallow Liquid Depths and the Effect of Baffles

Sloshing is relevant in several applications like ship tanks, space and automotive industry and seiching in harbours. Due to the relationship between ship and s...