A Review of Ex-Post Evidence for Mode Substitution and Induced Demand Following the Introduction of High-Speed Rail

ABSTRACT

To date, relatively little is known about the nature of the demand for high-speed rail (HSR) soon after inauguration of the services, despite close to 50-year experience of HSR operation and 17 166?km of HSR network around the world. This is a real lacuna given the scale of HSR construction around the world, the amount of resources committed to it, the desired accessibility, economic and environmental effects associated with HSR development and the relatively poor track record of forecasting demand for HSR services. Focusing on mode substitution and induced demand effects, this review aims to fill the gap in knowledge about the ex-post demand for HSR services in order to facilitate a learning process for the planning of the future HSR network. Although there is not much evidence on the demand for HSR services and existing evidence is largely influenced by route-specific characteristics, a methodological limitation that must be acknowledged, the evidence presented allows a better characterisation of HSR as a mode of transport. The review shows that the demand for HSR a few years after inauguration is about 10–20% induced demand and the rest is attributed to mode substitution. In terms of mode substitution, in most cases the majority of HSR passengers have used the conventional rail before. Substitution from aircraft, car and coach is generally more modest.     

Bridging the gap between complex data and decision-makers: an example of an innovative interactive tool

Abstract

The increasing capacity of technological tools, as well as the advent of geographic information systems, has multiplied the ability to process large sets of microdata. At the same time, modeling concerns and the quest for a more in-depth understanding of individual behaviors is requiring more, and better, data. The gap between scientific modeling and informational tools for decision-making seems to be widening.

In the Greater Montreal area, large sets of microdata have been available for more than 30 years. Along with the development of modeling and planning tools, particular attention has been given to the continuous enlightening of planners and decision-makers with respect to the outcomes of the various surveys. This has led to the development of particular interactive tools, specifically addressed at local planners, which present the most significant information regarding travel and demography, for geopolitically relevant areas.

This paper presents the most recent interactive tool that has been developed for local planners in the Montreal area. It integrates information from both the most recent travel survey held in the region and the Canadian census. It offers both ease of use and relevant analytical means to assist in exploring the complex relations between spatial locations, demographic features, and activity-travel indicators.     

Railway Vehicle Modelling by the Constraint Equation Method*

A method for the dynamic analysis of railway vehicles is proposed. The method is based on both the using of constraint equations, and on the building of the mathematical model by means of the initial data.

The calculation models are nonlinear, due both to the connecting elements, and to the wheel-rail contact modelling. Solving of differential equations is achieved by time step integration. The method has been applied to the analysis of a freight wagon and a train unit.     

A cooperative waiting strategy based on elliptical areas for the Dynamic Pickup and Delivery Problem with Time Windows

The purpose of this paper to present a cooperative scheduling algorithm for solving the Dynamic Pickup and Delivery Problem with Time Windows (DPDPTW). The idea behind cooperative waiting strategies is to calculate simultaneously the waiting times for all nodes in the solution. Classical non‐cooperative scheduling algorithms perform the scheduling for each route independently of the scheduling of the other routes. We present the Cooperative Scheduling Problem (CSP) based on the elliptical areas generated by vehicles waiting at their nodes. The CSP is solved by means of a genetic algorithm and is evaluated by using a set of benchmarks based on real‐life data found in the literature. Initially, two waiting strategies are presented: Wait‐Early‐Time scheduling and Balanced‐Departure scheduling. Extensive empirical simulations have been carried out by analyzing the degree of dynamism and the average waiting time, a new concept defined to take into account the gap between the time windows of pickup and delivery nodes. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Explaining light vehicle demand evolution in interurban toll roads: a dynamic panel data analysis in Spain

Tolls have increasingly become a common mechanism to fund road projects in recent decades. Therefore, improving knowledge of demand behavior constitutes a key aspect for stakeholders dealing with the management of toll roads. However, the literature concerning demand elasticity estimates for interurban toll roads is still limited due to their relatively scarce number in the international context. Furthermore, existing research has left some aspects to be investigated, among others, the choice of GDP as the most common socioeconomic variable to explain traffic growth over time. This paper intends to determine the variables that better explain the evolution of light vehicle demand in toll roads throughout the years. To that end, we establish a dynamic panel data methodology aimed at identifying the key socioeconomic variables explaining changes in light vehicle demand over time. The results show that, despite some usefulness, GDP does not constitute the most appropriate explanatory variable, while other parameters such as employment or GDP per capita lead to more stable and consistent results. The methodology is applied to Spanish toll roads for the 1990–2011 period, which constitutes a very interesting case on variations in toll road use, as road demand has experienced a significant decrease since the beginning of the economic crisis in 2008.     

Rail freight transport and demand requirements: an analysis of attribute cut-offs through a stated preference experiment

This paper analyses the choice between road and rail in Spain where rail market share for freight is still residual. Discrete choice models are estimated with data obtained through a two-phase fieldwork, thus allowing us to carry out a stated preference efficient design for each interviewee. We analyse the existence of attribute cut-offs and the presence of a segment of the population with a zero value of frequency. Our results show that ignoring the existence of cut-offs and segments of the population with polarised valuations can lead to erroneous conclusions in terms of the possibilities of rail for absorbing significant quota.     

Influence of repeated and delayed excitations in combined subspace identification

The application of combined subspace identification methods to land vehicles would allow the modal parameters of the vehicle to be obtained, while it is in operation, thus improving the vehicle modal characterisation. However, when a land vehicle is circulating through a straight line, the excitations applied to the different axles are identical among them but with a certain time delay. The presence of repeated excitations with different time delays implies that the past and future subspaces include common vectors that may lead to problems in the application of the method. To analyse its influence, an index called the reduction coefficient resulting from excitations (RCE) has been defined. RCE evaluates the amount of information eliminated in the oblique projection due to the effect of repeated excitations. The use of RCE enables the selection of analysis parameters, particularly the sampling frequency, the signals grouping and some specific parameters of the subspace identification methods.