A dynamic linear model for the estimation of time‐varying origin–destination matrices from link counts

We propose a dynamic linear model (DLM) for the estimation of day‐to‐day time‐varying origin–destination (OD) matrices from link counts. Mean OD flows are assumed to vary over time as a locally constant model. We take into account variability in OD flows, route flows, and link volumes. Given a time series of observed link volumes, sequential Bayesian inference is applied in order to estimate mean OD flows. The conditions under which mean OD flows may be estimated are established, and computational studies on two benchmark transportation networks from the literature are carried out. In both cases, the DLM converged to the unobserved mean OD flows when given sufficient observations of traffic link volumes despite assuming uninformative prior OD matrices. We discuss limitations and extensions of the proposed DLM. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measuring the energy efficiency for airlines under the pressure of being included into the EU ETS

In 2008, European Union (EU) announced that from 2012, each international flight taking off and landing in EU would be given an emission permit. Therefore, the period of 2008–2012 can be regarded as a buffer period for global airlines. Although EU formally decides to exclude non‐EU airlines from the EU Emission Trading System on March 4, 2014, it is necessary to investigate the impacts of the policy on airline energy efficiency in this period. Airline energy efficiency is divided into three stages—operations stage, service stage, and sales stage—and Greenhouse gas emission is treated as an undesirable output of service stage. Two models, network range‐adjusted measure model with weak disposability and network range‐adjusted measure model with strong disposability, are established to evaluate the efficiencies of 22 international airlines from 2008 to 2012. The results show that (i) most airlines' efficiencies have decreased in the period, and the EU Emission Trading System is not effective for the efficiency improvement; (ii) the average efficiency of European airlines is almost the same as that of non‐European airlines; and (iii) the model with weak disposability is more reasonable in distinguishing efficiency differences, while strong disposability is a more reasonable way in treating undesirable outputs. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Train design features affecting boarding and alighting of passengers

Accurately predicting train dwell time is critical to running an effective and efficient service. With high‐density passenger services, large numbers of passengers must be able to board and alight the train quickly – and within scheduled dwell times. Using a specially constructed train mock‐up in a pedestrian movement laboratory, the experiments outlined in this paper examine the impact of train carriage design factors such as door width, seat type, platform edge doors and horizontal gap on the time taken by passengers to board and alight. The findings illustrate that the effectiveness of design features depends on whether there are a majority of passengers boarding or alighting. An optimum door width should be between 1.7 and 1.8 m. The use of a central pole and platform edge doors produced no major effects, but a 200 mm horizontal gap could increase the movement of passengers. There is no clear effect of the type of seats and neither the standbacks between 50, 300 and 500 mm. Further research will look for the relationship between the dwell time and the characteristics of passengers such as personal space. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Urban traffic flow prediction: a spatio‐temporal variable selection‐based approach

Short‐term traffic flow prediction in urban area remains a difficult yet important problem in intelligent transportation systems. Current spatio‐temporal‐based urban traffic flow prediction techniques trend aims to discover the relationship between adjacent upstream and downstream road segments using specific models, while in this paper, we advocate to exploit the spatial and temporal information from all available road segments in a partial road network. However, the available traffic states can be high dimensional for high‐density road networks. Therefore, we propose a spatio‐temporal variable selection‐based support vector regression (VS‐SVR) model fed with the high‐dimensional traffic data collected from all available road segments. Our prediction model can be presented as a two‐stage framework. In the first stage, we employ the multivariate adaptive regression splines model to select a set of predictors most related to the target one from the high‐dimensional spatio‐temporal variables, and different weights are assigned to the selected predictors. In the second stage, the kernel learning method, support vector regression, is trained on the weighted variables. The experimental results on the real‐world traffic volume collected from a sub‐area of Shanghai, China, demonstrate that the proposed spatio‐temporal VS‐SVR model outperforms the state‐of‐the‐art. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

不确定环境下应急物资配送问题研究

针对受灾点的需求量、车辆从配送中心到受灾点的运行时间及单位成本为三角模糊数的应急物资配送问题,建立系统总费用最小和总的时间惩罚成本最小的双目标规划模型,利用模糊数的相关理论将模糊规划模型转化为确定型双目标混合整数规划模型,并由此设计了该模型的求解算法,通过算例说明了算法的可行性和有效性。分析表明,最优的车辆路径的决策方案与权重值ω关系密切,故决策者在决策时应根据实际情况选择合适的权重值ω。     

Optimizing one‐way traffic network reconfiguration and lane‐based non‐diversion routing for evacuation

Unfortunately, situations such as flood, hurricanes, chemical accidents, and other events occur frequently more and more. To improve the efficiency and practicality of evacuation management plan, an integrated optimization model of one‐way traffic network reconfiguration and lane‐based non‐diversion routing with crossing elimination at intersection for evacuation is constructed in this paper. It is an integrated model aiming at minimizing the network clearance time based on Cell Transmission Model. A hybrid algorithm with modified genetic algorithm and tabu search method is devised for approximating optimal problem solutions. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and solving method, two cases are illustrated in this paper. Through the first example, it can be seen that the proposed model and algorithm can effectively solve the integrated problems, and compared with the objective value of the original network, the network clearance time of the final solution reduces by 47.4%. The calculation results for the realistic topology and size network of Ningbo in China, which locates on the east coast of the Pacific Ocean, justify the practical value of the model and solution method, and solutions under different settings of reduction amount of merging cell capacity embody obvious differences. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

考虑疲劳损伤的栓钉连接件抗剪承载力研究

针对钢-混凝土组合梁桥在结合面处承受反复剪力作用的栓钉连接件极限承载力降低现象进行了试验研究。基于考虑构件初始缺陷影响的断裂力学方法,建立了栓钉连接件疲劳寿命分析模型,并通过试验数据确定了模型参数,提出了栓钉连接件残余抗剪承载力与等幅循环荷载加载次数关系的计算方法,采用此计算方法对不同的影响因素进行了参数分析。研究结果表明:栓钉直径越大,其抗剪承载力退化程度越大;栓钉初始缺陷率大于0.1且剪应力幅值大于100MPa时,其抗剪承载力降低速度很快,在工程设计中须加以控制。     

基于彩色数字正射影像地籍图的城区地籍调查

将数字地籍线划图(DLG)和数字正射影像图(DOM)迭加,形成了彩色数字正射影像地籍图,为城镇地籍管理信息系统的建立和使用提供了丰富多彩的图形信息。介绍盘锦市城区地籍调查的主要过程,主要内容有:作业依据、航空摄影、控制测量、像控点测量、权属调查、界址点测量,制作数字地籍线划图及数字正射影像图等内容。     

良渚古城城墙墙底垫石的作用机理和效果

考古发现良渚古城城墙底部铺有一层块石,为了搞清良渚人铺设这层垫石的目的和作用功效,利用Geostudio软件开展有限元计算,定量分析铺设垫石对增强城墙稳定性、加快排水固结、减小沉降及水平变形量三方面的作用。计算结果表明,铺设垫石后,地基表面形成了一层强度较高,模量较大的垫层,增强了城墙的抗滑移能力,使其边坡稳定系数提高10.1%～19.0%;铺设垫石层后,100 d时间内,地基的平均固结度可提高10.8%～14.9%,允许填筑速度可从8 d提高到6 d;铺设垫石还可以起到应力扩散作用,使地基最大沉降减小47.1%,最大水平位移减小39.2%,这有利于减少填筑土方量。     

A GIS‐based traffic analysis zone design: technique

The main purpose of this paper is to develop an efficient method to design traffic analysis zones (TAZs), which is necessary for implementing a planning process with Geographic Information System (GIS) for Transportation (GIS‐T), using statistical spatial data analyses and GIS technology. The major roles of GIS in this method are: (1) to produce basic spatial units (BSUs) with topological data structure; (2) to integrate various procedures during the TAZ generation including computer program routines; and (3) to visualize the output of each TAZ generation. One of the most significant reasons for obtaining well‐defined TAZs is the fact that they are defined at the outset of transportation demand modeling, used from trip generation to trip assignment, and will ultimately affect transportation policy decisions.

Toward obtaining well‐defined TAZs, this paper concentrates on two important constraints: homogeneity and contiguity. Iterative partitioning technique is adopted to promote the optimum homogeneity of generated TAZs, while a contiguity checking algorithm is developed to ensure contiguous TAZs are generated by the iterative partitioning technique.