The effect of the oil crisis on the growth in the ownership and use of cars

Since the oil crisis of 1973, a number of studies have been made in various countries of the effects of the rise in petrol prices on the level of traffic flow, but rather fewer have attempted to delineate the complex chain of reactions within the car market set off by this impulse. We attempt to do this, using data from the UK.Since 1966 during the prediction stage of the first London Transportation Study it became obvious that low income and high income households had different rates of growth of car ownership, mainly because low income households bought cheap, old cars which vary in quantity and price differently from expensive, new cars. The Greater London Council therefore sponsored a study of car prices by age and size, starting from 1957 annually, and since the oil crisis, evaluated monthly. This has enabled us to examine the strong change in trend that had occurred, with large cars depreciating 15% per annum more than the smallest. The quantities of cars of each size registered each month are available from national statistics and this enables us to say that the previous 1% per annum increase in car size was arrested, with new cars becoming substantially smaller.A model of the car market has been developed which relates on the one hand the price distribution of cars by age, and on the other hand the price. distribution of the stock of cars owned at each household income level. Via the expenditure on car purchase at each household income level and the distribution of the length of time between purchase and resale of cars, a fully dynamic model has been developed to relate expenditure flow and stock. This enables us to test the effect of different trends on the dynamic equilibrium in the car market.The implications of the two trends noted above on the prediction of future car ownership growth are discussed, with the standstill since the oil crisis attributed to petrol prices via the split in household expenditure between purchase and use.     

Perceived and actual costs of operating cars

The perception that drivers have of car operating costs is an important factor in determining modal split characteristics. Theoretical figures derived from discriminant analysis models suggest that drivers perceive only petrol costs, but this has not been cor roborated by detailed surveys. This report examines in detail perceived and actual journey to work petrol costs of a sample of London commuters. The perception is also examined of related factors, such as petrol consumption and distance, in an attempt to throw some light on the perception mechanism itself.     

Junction interactions and monotonicity in traffic assignment

We consider the traffic equilibrium problem when the travel demand is inelastic and stationary in time. Junction interactions, which abound in urban road networks, are permitted. We prove that the set of equilibria (solutions to the assignment problem) is convex when certain monotonicity and continuity conditions are statisfied at each junction.     

Parameter estimability in the multinomial probit model

A particular parameter estimability problem in the multinomial probit model is considered. Making use of a model discussed in the literature, some problems with the usual method of specification are discussed. Some general comments are made on the problem of selecting a normalisation when using the multinomial probit model.     

The dynamics of traffic assignment and traffic control: A theoretical study

The paper considers traffic assignment, with traffic controls, in an increasingly dynamic way. First, a natural way of introducing the responsive policy, P_o, into steady state traffic assignment is presented. Then it is shown that natural stability results follow within a dynamical version of this static equilibrium model (still with a constant demand). We are able to obtain similar stability results when queues are explicitly allowed for, provided demand is constant. Finally we allow demand to vary with time; we consider the dynamic assignment problem with signal-settings now fixed. Here we assume that vehicles are very short and that deterministic queueing theory applies, and show that the time-dependent queueing delay at the bottleneck at the end of a link is a monotone function of the time-dependent input profile to the bottleneck. We have been unable to obtain results when dynamic demand and responsive signal control are combined.     

A dynamic stochastic assignment model for the analysis of general networks

The paper adopts the framework employed by the existing dynamic assignment models, which analyse specific network forms, and develops a methodology for analysing general networks. Traffic conditions within a link are assumed to be homogeneous, and the time varying O-D travel times and traffic flow patterns are calculated using elementary relationships from traffic flow theory and link volume conservation equations. Each individual is assumed to select a departure time and a route by trading off the travel time and schedule delay associated with each alternative. A route is considered as reasonable if it includes only links which do not take the traveller back to the origin. The set of reasonable routes is not consistant but depends on the time that an individual decides to depart from his origin. Equilibrium distributions are derived from a Markovian model which describes the evolution of travel patterns from day to day. Numerical simulation experiments are conducted to analyse the impact of different work start time flexibilities on the time dependent travel patterns. The similarity between link flows and travel times obtained from static and dynamic stochastic assignment is investigated. It is shown that in congested networks the application of static assignment results in travel times which are lower than the ones predicted by dynamic assignment.     

基于车激动力响应互相关指标的桥梁基础冲刷诊断方法

针对当前桥梁基础冲刷诊断和检测方法过程复杂、成本高且受环境影响大等问题,提出一种基于车激动力响应互相关指标的桥梁基础冲刷诊断方法。该方法通过桥墩和桥跨不同测点的纵向加速度响应自由衰减段信号的互相关分析,建立基础冲刷诊断指标体系,实现冲刷定位和均匀性诊断。首先,依据互相关函数幅值向量置信度判据指标进行基础冲刷初判;然后,通过响应互相关函数幅值向量因子变化率向量进行冲刷定位,再根据横桥向互相关函数幅值变化率向量诊断冲刷均匀性;并通过统计评估方法提高诊断精度;最后,结合1座连续梁桥算例进行多种冲刷工况的数值仿真分析,对所提方法的有效性和适用性进行验证。结果表明：该方法能够很好地实现基础冲刷的定位和均匀性诊断,指标具有较高敏感性;同时具有较好的抗噪性能,通过所提出诊断指标体系的综合使用可消除噪声对诊断结果的干扰。该方法具有诊断结果精度高、过程简便易行、无需进行复杂且误差较大的模态识别、允许试验测试参数和条件适量变化等优点,可嵌入常规桥梁荷载试验同步开展,具有很好的工程应用潜力和实用价值。     

Fuzzy-logic applied to yaw moment control for vehicle stability

In this paper, we propose a new yaw moment control based on fuzzy logic to improve vehicle handling and stability. The advantages of fuzzy methods are their simplicity and their good performance in controlling non-linear systems. The developed controller generates the suitable yaw moment which is obtained from the difference of the brake forces between the front wheels so that the vehicle follows the target values of the yaw rate and the sideslip angle. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed control method when the vehicle is subjected to different cornering steering manoeuvres such as change line and J-turn under different driving conditions (dry road and snow-covered).     

基于时空GPSO-SVM的短时交通流预测

为了提高城市道路短时交通流预测的精度,提出了一种基于时空遗传粒子群支持向量机的短时交通流预测模型.通过主成分分析法对路网原始交通流量进行时空相关性分析,用较少的主成分代替原始交通流量并作为预测因子,在粒子群算法中引入遗传算法的交叉和变异因子,避免粒子群算法陷入局部最优.利用改进后的粒子群算法优化支持向量机参数,得到最优的支持向量机模型,并实现城市道路的短时交通流预测.以长春市路网的实测数据为基础进行了实例验证,结果表明,优化支持向量机参数时,遗传粒子群算法不会陷入局部最优,优化效果更好;与粒子群支持向量机模型和遗传粒子群支持向量机模型相比,所提出预测模型的相对误差波动较稳定,平均预测精度分别提高了4.96%和3.41%.