A nested logit model of mode choice for inland movement of export shipments: A case study of containerised export cargo from India

Predominance of containerised mode of transport for export of general cargo has influenced the mode choices on the inland segment. Prior to containerisation the general cargo for export moved to ports invariably on road in break bulk form. Growth of containerisation led to development of inland terminals enabling an exporter to obtain export clearance at the inland points. This process facilitated an exporter to move cargo either in break bulk or in containerised form, and as inland terminals facilitated aggregation an exporter could move cargo either by road or rail. Thus containerisation increased the inland transport options for an exporter from one to three. The paper develops discrete choice models in the Indian context for inland movement of containerised export cargo. Primary data was collected from 124 export firms through a structured questionnaire. This data is supplemented with data from transport firms and terminal operators. Using the above data, a nested logit model with rail container and road truck in one branch was found to predict the mode choice behaviour best. Amongst the transport attributes, total cost and total transit time were found to be influencing the mode choices significantly. The study however did not find the effect of reliability and loss and damage significant. In addition, the model also predicts that non transport attributes - like the percentage of letters of credit that materialise with inland way bills and the value of export benefits that materialise after export - are important in the mode choice decision.     

A study of factors influencing the severity of road crashes involving drunk drivers and non drunk drivers

In this study, an attempt has been made to develop Multinomial Logit (MNL) model by analysing the drunken and non drunken drivers involved in road crashes on Indian highways. Multinomial Logit model has been deployed to assess the influence of various parameters like vehicular, environment and geometric factors on the set of drivers who were found to be drunk at the time of getting involved in the road crash and those who were not under the influence of alcohol at the time of meeting with the road crash. The total economic cost of road crashes in the case of non-drunk driver road crash is Rs. 1046.27 million whereas in the case of drunk driver road crashes it is estimated to be Rs. 204.50 million. Further, it can be observed that economic cost of drunk driver road crashes is varying from 13 to 19 % across different types of road crashes.     

Implementing green supply chain practices: an empirical investigation in the shipbuilding industry

ABSTRACT

Environmental concerns have become important in the shipbuilding industry. Governmental expectations about environmental and social performance are much higher than in the past. Public authorities penalize companies that do not comply with the rules. Shipbuilding companies face these challenges by introducing new technologies into their business processes. They do not only start initiatives to green their own business processes but also those of their supply chain partners. This form of environmental management is called Green Supply Chain Management (GrSCM) and its importance is increasingly recognized. Although GrSCM is growing, companies are experiencing difficulties engaging suppliers in environmental activities.

This empirical study analyses drivers for supply chain participation of suppliers in the shipbuilding industry. We explain the participations of suppliers in GrSCM practice by investigating influencing factors including governmental involvement in greening the supply chain, customer requirements towards green issues, feeling of social responsibility, competitive advantage by going green, and GrSCM readiness. Hypotheses are tested with partial least squares, using survey data of 93 suppliers of two leading shipbuilding companies. We found GrSCM readiness, competitive advantage, and social responsibility to be significant drivers in supplier participation. No significant support was found for governmental involvement and customer requirements.     

Numerical prediction of the modal response of flexible cylinders in cross-flow with a current dependent form of damping

A quadratic eigenvalue problem (QEP) was posed in order to study the dynamics of flexible cylinders in cross-flow, simulating slender offshore structures such as risers, catenaries or tendons. The Euler–Bernoulli equation was used to model the structure assuming a fluid loading model, and yielding a quadratic eigenvalue problem that included a form of damping dependent not only on the structural damping itself, but also on the free stream velocity and the fluid force coefficients. We solved the QEP using the finite element method. We also derived a simplified analytical solution in this work for comparison with the QEP, however this solution does not consider changes in tension along the length of the cylinder as the QEP does. In our study, the QEP solutions were first validated against the simplified analytical solution, and also against a well-known experimental dataset obtained in 2003, in which a flexible circular cylinder model was used to model the dynamics of a riser undergoing multi-mode vortex-induced vibrations.     

Full scale ice sea trials of Korean ice breaking research vessel ‘Araon’ on the big floes near Antarctica

A speed sea trial was performed in the Amundsen Sea in February and March of 2012. The Korean ice breaking research vessel “Araon” was used to check speed performance on the big floes. Two of ice trial cases were carried out. We describe the time history of location, the engine power, and the revolutions per minute during the ice trial, and the trajectory of the ship. Additionally, the measured ice properties are considered and discussed. The ice trial results were analyzed according to variation in ice thicknesses, ice strength, propulsion power, and the speed level of the ship. Our analysis results are compared to model test results and ice trial results. A correction to the target ice thickness was used to compare the power and speed relation in the same ice thickness because it is easy to know the relative speed performance of the ship. The Hamburgische Schiffbau-Versuchs Anstalt method was applied for the correction. The speed of Araon in big floes was higher than the speed in level ice. The speed after the correction at 10 MW of power and 103 cm of ice thickness was 5.4 knots based on analysis results.     

Some economic aspects of conflicts over land use in the coastal zone

Abstract

Recent land use legislation pays particular attention to the coastal zone where age‐old conflicts have recently accelerated. Flexibility is required in policy because visible conflicts are tied into complex physical and social systems which may require changing patterns of land use over time. Public policy is altering property rights and a thorough understanding of the economic and social roles played by those rights is required. Economic models can be used to understand some major changes such as types of alteration of the environment, but may be ignored or misused unless a better understanding of coastal decision processes is developed.     

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems from Autonomous to Cooperative Approach

Abstract

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have been one of the most active areas of ITS studies in the last two decades. ADAS aim to support drivers by either providing warning to reduce risk exposures, or automating some of the control tasks to relieve a driver from manual control of a vehicle. ADAS functions can be achieved through an autonomous approach with all instrumentation and intelligence on board the vehicle, or through a cooperative approach, where assistance is provided from roadways and/or from other vehicles. In this article, recent research and developments of longitudinal control assistance systems are reviewed including adaptive cruise control, forward collision warning and avoidance, and platooning assistants. The review focuses on comparing between autonomous systems and cooperative systems in terms of technologies used, system impacts and implementation. The main objective is to achieve common understanding on ADAS functional potentials and limitations and to identify research needs for further studies.     

Sample size requirements for stated choice experiments

Stated choice (SC) experiments represent the dominant data paradigm in the study of behavioral responses of individuals, households as well as other organizations, yet in the past little has been known about the sample size requirements for models estimated from such data. Traditional orthogonal designs and existing sampling theories does not adequately address the issue and hence researchers have had to resort to simple rules of thumb or ignore the issue and collect samples of arbitrary size, hoping that the sample is sufficiently large enough to produce reliable parameter estimates, or are forced to make assumptions about the data that are unlikely to hold in practice. In this paper, we demonstrate how a recently proposed sample size computation can be used to generate so-called S-efficient designs using prior parameter values to estimate panel mixed multinomial logit models. Sample size requirements for such designs in SC studies are investigated. In a numerical case study is shown that a D-efficient and even more an S-efficient design require a (much) smaller sample size than a random orthogonal design in order to estimate all parameters at the level of statistical significance. Furthermore, it is shown that wide level range has a significant positive influence on the efficiency of the design and therefore on the reliability of the parameter estimates.     

Choosing Public Transport—Incorporating Richer Behavioural Elements in Modal Choice Models

The development of behaviourally richer representations of the role of well-established and increasingly important influences on modal choice, such as trip time reliability and accounting for risk attitude and process rules, has moved forward at a fast pace in the context of automobile travel. In the public transport setting, such contributions have, with rare exception, not been considered. In this paper, we discuss and empirically illustrate the merits of advanced modelling developments aimed at improving our understanding of public transport choice, namely the inclusion of reliability in extended expected utility theoretic forms, to recognize risk attitude and perceptual conditioning, the consideration of passenger crowding and its inclusion in linear additive models, and the role of multiple heuristics in representing attribute processing as a way of conditioning modal choice. We illustrate the mechanics of introducing these behaviourally appealing extensions using a modal choice data set collected in Sydney.     

Are Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) Beneficial for Society? A Cost Benefit Analysis to Evaluate their Potential Implementation in Spain

Abstract

In this paper we carry out a thorough review of the current research related to the benefits and costs arising from the implementation of longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs). From this review we concluded that despite the many studies available, little has been said about the sensitivity of the benefits and costs to the ultimate performance of the key variables related to the evolution of the economy, road transport performance, safety, and so on. In order to fill this gap, we have designed a sensitivity approach based on a cost benefit analysis tool to determine which variables demonstrate the greatest influence on the benefits and costs stemming from the implementation of LHVs. In order to test the methodology, we have used it in an analysis of the Spanish trunk network. The results show that the benefits of LHVs for society are significant. Even in the least favorable scenario, the economic benefits are greater than €3500 million over 15 years, and the environment enhanced as well, for CO₂ emissions are reduced by 2 Million tonnes. Overall we noted how the results are not very sensitive to the evolution of key variables in determining the final outcome. However, we found that the variables that have the greatest affect on the final benefit, such as traffic growth and social discount rate, depend basically on the performance of the overall economy. Moreover, the private cost for haulers seems to be more important in determining the final benefit than externality costs.