Coping with uncertainty: an expedition into the field of new transport technology

Many decisions taken by mankind are rational only to a limited extent. This holds for individual travel behaviour, but also for long-range strategic decisions on transport systems or transport technology. In any decision problem, coping with uncertainty is the most critical element. The introduction of new transport technology is surrounded by uncertainty. For example, there is uncertainty about the pace and extent of adoption of new technology and there is uncertainty about the impact of new technology in terms of increased sustainability or increased efficiency. This article maps uncertainty surrounding new transport technology and identifies ways in which to deal with uncertainty in policy making. The findings will be illustrated with electric vehicles, particularly with two specific strategies to deal with uncertainty: interactive technology watching and experimentation in a market niche. The paper concludes with a discussion of success factors that influence the outcomes of such strategies.     

新转化膜在汽车行业内的应用近况

1 引言 伴随着20世纪初Thomas Coslett及其他众多人士的研究工作,在1943年引入了Jernstadt磷酸盐后,诞生了今天人们所熟知的用于镀锌工艺前预浸处理的含钛磷酸氢二钠溶液.使用该磷酸盐后,可以更快地形成更为细小的磷酸锌晶体组织.过去60多年间,这种基础工艺在众人的努力下愈发精细,但是基本的化学特性及功能仍然保持不变.     

Diesel-engined vehicle nitric oxide and soot emissions during the European light-duty driving cycle using a transient mapping approach

An engine mapping-based methodology is developed to gain a first approximation of a vehicle’s performance and emissions during a light-duty cycle. The procedure is based on a steady-state experimental investigation of the engine with an appropriate vehicle drivetrain model applied so that the cycle vehicle speed data can be transformed into engine speed and torque. Correction analysis is then applied based on transient experimentation to account for the transient discrepancies during real driving. The developed algorithm is applied for the case of a diesel-engined vehicle running on the European light-duty cycle. A comparative analysis is performed for each section of the cycle revealing its individual transient characteristics.     

Western Australia's nonstatutory approach to coastal zone management: An evaluation

Abstract

Western Australia is fortunate that there have been few natural disasters on the coast. However, low levels of coastal erosion during the 1970s demonstrated the need to establish coastal zone management in that state of Australia. The erosion was quickly contained because private ownership to the high water mark is almost nonexistent, private property being set back behind coastal reserves along most of the coast. The provision of coastal reserves has been part of a deliberate nonstatutory coastal planning and management approach. As a result Western Australia has been able to use existing acts, coordination between existing government agencies, and coastal policies rather than enact specific coastal legislation to manage the coast.     

Reducing the cost of peak hour transit service through contracting out service

Transit service contracting has responded to fiscal and financial woes of public transit agencies as the most uniquely attractive cost‐saving strategy at present. Most transit service contracting, however, has been in the traditional provision of entire fixed route bus service or commuter express bus service, and exclusive demand responsive service for the general public or for special disadvantaged population groups such as the elderly and/or the handicapped. This paper presents a new module in transit service contracting whereby the public and private operators jointly provide the peak service on the same route and at the same time. While the public agency provides the base demand of the service, the private provider provides the excess demand, both following the same schedules and similar service arrangements. In this paper, proposed service arrangements, costing and contracting procedures are discussed. It is also reported that substantial cost savings ranging from 32 to 57% with an average savings of 48% can be achieved if the excess peak hour bus transit service on highly peaked routes in public transit agencies is contracted to competing private operator(s).     

Economic value of fish,wildlife, and recreation in Michigan's coastal wetlands

On the basis of annual expenditures by recreational participants and standard values of recreation days, as well as estimated sport and commercial harvests, the gross annual return from Michigan's 105,855 acres of coastal wetlands has been estimated. Analysis of fish, wildlife, and recreational values revealed that in 1977 these wetland areas generated an economic value of $489.69 per wetland acre, for a direct annual gross of $51.8 million. Specifically, these average return values per wetland acre/year, in descending order, are sport fishing ($286), nonconsumptive recreation ($138.24), waterfowl hunting ($31.23), trapping of furbearers ($30.44), and commercial fishing ($3.78). These gross annual return values were calculated in an effort to sensitize the general public to the diversity and possible magnitude of selected wetland functions.     

Operating differential subsidies: problems and alternatives for the United States

In this paper a proposal for a Competitive Rate of Return (CRR) based operating-subsidy system is made as an alternative to the existing US foreign-cost parity ODS system. Such an alternative, if adopted, could be successful in meaningfully relating US government maritime subsidy programmes to the legitimate financial needs of the industry. From the operator's viewpoint, the risk of drastic revenue fluctuations is removed, yet adequate opportunities are provided for firms with above average performance to be rewarded for their efficiency in higher than average profits. similarly, poorly run firms have an opportunity to lose money, in spite of government subsidies.

From the government's viewpoint, the CRR programme guarantees the provision of essential shipping services at the lowest possible cost. Because of substantial incentives to the operator on both the revenue and cost side of his profit equation, it is more likely that long-run government operating subsidies can be reduced under CRR than under the present system.

Although the CRR system has been described for use in determining subsidies for both bulk and general cargo carriers, it has been recommended that this system be considered first for implementation in the case of bulk vessels, because of the newness of the bulk subsidy programme. In addition, the 1970 Act gives MarAd the flexibility to initiate such a programme for bulk vessels without the necessity of new legislation.     

The Organization of Nautical Training and Executive Leadership

The aim of this paper is to indicate some of the distinctive problems of executive leadership which surround the control of authority in merchant navy training schools in the United Satates, Great Britain, and Spain. On the basis of extensive field interviews with the staff and directors of two American, three British, and two Spanish, schools, our purpose is to suggest the conditions which give rise to the need for particular kinds of leadership styles, depending upon the manner by which nautical education is organized [1]. More specfi-cally, our thesis is that their organizationl chartering arrangements (defined as contractual and quasi-contractual linkages with variious third parties to nautical education) mandate specific kinds of internal structural patterns within nautical schools which, in turn, produce the need for different styles of executive leadership.     

Fare deregulation of transit services: Winners and losers in a competitive market

Currently, the Hong Kong government imposes fare control on buses and taxi while the rail services are immune to such a control. This study examined four scenarios of fare deregulation on transit services by considering three related parties of a transit system – service providers, travelers, and society in general, with their respective objectives represented as – revenue, travel utility, and congestion. Analyzing the resultant impacts on these three parties, we found that a different regulatory environment would favor or hurt a different set of parties. There is no clear win‐win situation for all parties. Deciding a socially acceptable regulatory environment is likely to involve difficult tradeoffs among these parties.