Guidelines for samplers: measuring a change in behaviour from before and after surveys

This paper addresses the issue of using before and after surveys to evaluate behavioural changes in response to transport policies and investments, a procedure that, we argue is done far too rarely in this profession. Further, it demonstrates very clearly that, in almost all conceivable cases, there are considerable economies to be obtained by using a panel (again, under-utilised in our profession) to undertake evaluation, rather than successive independent cross-sectional surveys. The paper also addresses the critical issue of sample size requirements for measuring changes of a relatively small magnitude in travel behaviour; i.e., to state, with 95% confidence, that if there is a ∂ percent change in behaviour for the sample, there is a ∂ percent ± e percent change in the behaviour of the population, where e is the sampling error. In this paper, we present a method for calculating such sample size requirements from first principles and demonstrate the applicability both hypothetically and then empirically using data from the Puget Sound Transportation Panel. The formulation enables designers of before and after surveys to investigate the trade-offs between the statistical accuracy of their predictions and the sample size requirements systematically, without the need to specify ∂ a priori. This latter point is crucial, we argue, because we have limited information on ∂, yet, as we explain here, it drives the sample size requirements using alternative, well-cited approaches for calculating sample sizes to assess behavioural change. The results have important ramifications both for those implementing transport policies intended to produce behavioural change, especially when a cost-benefit evaluation of the policy is desired, and for those interpreting the results reported in previous studies.     

台湾海底隧道之接头与管段变化研析及对策

台湾唯一之海底隧道系采沉埋方式施工,该隧道不仅处于具高度盐份腐蚀之不利环境,且位于软弱地盘上.于营运二十余年后,轻微异状已有显现,如管段接头锈蚀、管体渗漏及管体裂损等异状.上述异状可能为接头构件变形、管体变位/变形及结构劣化等影响隧道安全之前兆,甚至降低其耐震能力;因该隧道肩负港区及区域经济发展之运输重任,如何藉由整体性体检进行安全评估及研订适当之维护补强对策,为计划执行重点;故本文将说明隧道接头、结构体等隧道重要构件之检测调查(如地球物理、钢筋腐蚀、裂缝深度、氯离子试验、防蚀电位、接头防水等项目)、数值分析及自动化监测(接缝计、单元沉陷仪、结构倾斜仪、电位计等)等综合评估结果及维护补强对策,以提供工程界日后参考.     

德国铁路的标准变流器

用变流器向德国铁路16.7 Hz电网供电是一种价格低廉的标准化方法.文章介绍了这种开发的基本特点以及在中央和地方电网中的应用实例.     

Intelligent Cruise Control System Design based on a Traffic Flow Specification

This paper investigates the problem of designing Intelligent Cruise Control (ICC) algorithms for partially and fully automated highways. ICC algorithms must guarantee that density disturbances attenuate as they propagate upstream. Such a desirable property of traffic is dependent on the spacing policy employed by automated vehicles and on the availability of information required to synthesize a string stable control law consistent with the employed spacing policy. The first part of the paper is concerned with the design of the spacing policy and the latter part is concerned with synthesizing ICC algorithms. Various other issues relating to the design of ICC are also discussed.     

Effects of Randomness in Vehicle Dwell Times on the Throughput of Automated Fixed Guideway Transportation System Stations with Multiple Loading Positions

Vehicle dwell times are perhaps the most unpredictable parameters of station operations because of occasional passenger intervention. This paper reports on an investigation involving theoretical and Monte Carlo techniques to ascertain the sensitivity of station throughput to randomness in dwell times. Alternative configurations of vehicle loading positions, e.g., loading positions in parallel, in series, or in a series-parallel combination, are considered in an effort to rank the configurations by their associated performance levels.     

Optimal Linear Active Suspensions with Integral Constraint

This paper considers the application of linear optimal control to the design of an active automobile suspension system. By inclusion of an integral constraint in the performance index it is possible to achieve zero steady state axle to body response to both static body forces and ramp road inputs. Full state feedback is achieved by reconstructing the state variables from easily measured quantities.     

Some estimation results of a simultaneous model of auto ownership and mode choice to work

This paper describes the theory, development and estimation of a simultaneous disaggregate model of automobile ownership and mode to work choices. The motivation for such a model and the general theory of the simultaneous probabilistic choice model are briefly discussed. The general model specification and the set of choices assumed to be available to each household is then considered. Finally, the variables used in the model are defined and the estimation results are presented.     

Locating and sizing park-ride lots with interactive computer graphs

Two alternative methods for conducting a preliminary analysis of the problem of locating and sizing park-ride lots for an urban bus transit system are examined. These alternative methods are tested using a large and complex street network representing the northern half of the City of Seattle, Washington. Four design criteria are identified and an overall measure of system performance is devised. The problem is to determine the size and location of three park-ride lots that will maximize the performance of the system. The first method utilizes a computing system called LOCATOR II in an interactive graphic mode. In an experimental setting, five students use LOCATOR II to locate three park-ride lots and their solutions are found to exhibit a very high average level of performance. The second method does not involve a direct interaction with the computing system but does use LOCATOR II in a batch mode. Several students participate in three rounds of the batch mode experiment and the performance of their designs is somewhat poorer than the designs found in the interactive graphics experiment. Overall, the experimental results show that relatively inexperienced persons can find a high performance design for a reasonably complex problem quickly and inexpensively. These designs can provide a good starting point for the detailed consideration of many of the other aspects of the problem of providing a high performance bus transit service in an urban area.