New appraisal values of travel time saving and reliability in Great Britain

Transportation - This paper provides an overview of the study ‘Provision of market research for value of time savings and reliability’ undertaken by the Arup/ITS Leeds/Accent consortium...     

基于数据挖掘的汽车排放检测结果与使用特点关联性分析

本文利用SQLServer2008作为数据库管理及数据挖掘平台,并建立了一个基于约10万条在用汽车排放检测数据的决策树挖掘模型。数据挖掘结果指出,使用年限与车辆排放状态有着密切的关联性。随着使用年限的增加,在用汽车排放检测不合格率也逐步增加,排放检测的不合格率从使用年限区间(一)的2.96%逐渐增加至区间(五)的18.31%。另外,使用年限在6年以内,营运车的排放检测不合格率是非营运车的排放检测不合格率的2倍以上,因此应分别对这两种不同使用性质的车辆采用不同的检车周期,非营运车辆的检车周期应放宽于营运车辆,以减轻非营运车车主的检车负担以及节省相关费用;在使用年限大于6年,可以采用同一检车周期以便于车辆管理部门的管理工作。     

Using BDI agents to improve driver modelling in a commuter scenario

The use of multi-agent systems to model and to simulate real systems consisting of intelligent entities capable of autonomously co-operating with each other has emerged as an important field of research. This has been applied to a variety of areas, such as social sciences, engineering, and mathematical and physical theories. In this work, we address the complex task of modelling drivers’ behaviour through the use of agent-based techniques. Contemporary traffic systems have experienced considerable changes in the last few years, and the rapid growth of urban areas has challenged scientific and technical communities. Influencing drivers’ behaviour appears as an alternative to traditional approaches to cope with the potential problem of traffic congestion, such as the physical modification of road infrastructures and the improvement of control systems. It arises as one of the underlying ideas of intelligent transportation systems. In order to offer a good means to evaluate the impact that exogenous information may exert on drivers’ decision making, we propose an extension to an existing microscopic simulation model called Dynamic Route Assignment Combining User Learning and microsimulAtion (DRACULA). In this extension, the traffic domain is viewed as a multi-agent world and drivers are endowed with mental attitudes, which allow rational decisions about route choice and departure time. This work is divided into two main parts. The first part describes the original DRACULA framework and the extension proposed to support our agent-based traffic model. The second part is concerned with the reasoning mechanism of drivers modelled by means of a Beliefs, Desires, and Intentions (BDI) architecture. In this part, we use AgentSpeak(L) to specify commuter scenarios and special emphasis is given to departure time and route choices. This paper contributes in that respect by showing a practical way of representing and assessing drivers’ behaviour and the adequacy of using AgentSpeak(L) as a modelling language, as it provides clear and elegant specifications of BDI agents.     

The economic impact study of maritime policy issues: application to the German case

Input-output analysis basically provides an estimation of a sector's economic impact by taking into account the indirect effects on all other sectors. For purposes of policy making, however, this may produce rather rigid and inaccurate results. This paper, therefore, introduces some extensions to the basic impact analysis. These extensions secure flexibility, completeness and accurateness of the outcomes. First, an accurate cost structure is determined in a bottom-up approach, i.e. by using data from a sample of representative companies. This allows for reliable outcomes and a flexible definition of sub-sectors. Secondly, the analysis is made in an intercountry context. Thirdly, the expenditure effects of generated income are determined by a macroeconomic module. Fourthly, company-level responses to alternative policy scenarios are investigated and translated into changing model parameters. These four basic elements are applied in a case study concerning the shipping sector of Germany. The scenarios are a continuation of the present policy, a laissez-faire policy, and two framework policies in which the government creates a favourable environment for shipping companies. For each scenario, the effects on value added, employment, tax revenues and expenditures are analysed and evaluated. This paper, thus, shows the relevance of accordingly amplified input-output analysis for policy purposes.     

High-speed trains subject to abrupt braking

The dynamic response of high-speed train subject to braking is investigated using the moving element method. Possible sliding of wheels over the rails is accounted for. The train is modelled as a 15-DOF system comprising of a car body, two bogies and four wheels interconnected by spring-damping units. The rail is modelled as a Euler–Bernoulli beam resting on a two-parameter elastic damped foundation. The interaction between the moving train and track-foundation is accounted for through the normal and tangential wheel–rail contact forces. The effects of braking torque, wheel–rail contact condition, initial train speed and severity of railhead roughness on the dynamic response of the high-speed train are investigated. For a given initial train speed and track irregularity, the study revealed that there is an optimal braking torque that would result in the smallest braking distance with no occurrence of wheel sliding, representing a good compromise between train instability and safety.     

Transportation Risk ANalysis tool for hazardous Substances (TRANS) – A user-friendly,semi-quantitative multi-mode hazmat transport route safety risk estimation methodology for Flanders

The paper develops a methodology for assessing the relative risk levels in moving hazardous materials by various transport modes. Transportation Risk ANalysis tool for hazardous Substances (TRANS) divides routes into smaller segments using multi-criteria analysis and likelihood scores of accidents in which dangerous cargoes are involved possibly causing fatalities. The consequences of accident scenarios are calculated in terms of the number of people within 1% of the lethal distance from the accident centre. This provides a user-friendly, semi-quantitative risk analysis tool. The generic method allows for comparing the risk levels of the segments of routes used in the transportation of hazardous goods.     

Valuing cargo flexibility in oil transportation

The seaborne oil transportation market is served by two main types of vessels—crude oil tankers and product tankers. Product tankers are designed to move refined oil products, yet they can also opportunistically carry ‘dirty’ products such as crude and heavy fuel oil, subject to the cost of tank cleaning when re-entering the clean products trade. We apply an entry-exit real option model with a stochastic freight rate differential to derive optimal triggers for switching between the two cargo types and estimate the value of the switching option. We show that the value of active switching has grown over time, and generally exceeds the additional construction cost of a product tanker. Our findings are important both from a practical point of view and for our understanding of market integration in the tanker freight market. Specifically, shipowners can use our model as a basis for optimizing chartering policy for clean product tankers. We also show that there are periods where the dirty market is persistently stronger, and discuss the possible reasons for such apparent inefficiencies.     

利用NVH分析法降低汽车车内噪声

在某车型准备量产前,OEM厂商发现该车在满油门加速时会产生严重的发动机噪声。LMS将竞争车型的内部噪声,尤其是加速时的噪声水平作为问题车型优化的最终指标。     

The effect of resuspension on chemical exchanges at the sediment-water interface in the deep sea — A modelling and natural radiotracer approach

We review the processes responsible for the formation of vertical gradients in the chemical composition of suspended particles across the benthic nepheloid layer. Such gradients have usually explained by resuspension of surface sediments, but it is shown here that these gradients can only be understood as part of a dynamic exchange between the water column and the sediments. A coupled model, developed in a companion paper, is expanded to include chemical reactions above and below the sediment-water interface. Three cases are discussed: A tracer with first-order decay (Model 1), the dissolution of a major constituent (Model 2), and a particle-reactive tracer with first-order decay and production in the water column (Model 3). Using typical parameter values for a well-developed benthic nepheloid layer, the three models reproduce typical distributions of C_org (organic carbon), opal, and ²³⁴Th, respectively, on particles above and below the sediment-water interface. Sensitivity analyses illustrate how bioturbation can cause the large discrepancy observed between suspended and surface sediment C_org values (Model 1). The model also reconciles this observed discrepancy with observations that the major part of the decomposition takes place within the sediment. For opal (Model 2), the influence of resuspension on the burial rate of opal is shown to be negligible, as long as dissolution follows first-order kinetics and is not enhanced by turbulence in the suspended phase. The modelling of ²³⁴Th (Model 3) successfully links the depletion of ²³⁴Th in bottom waters with the distribution of excess ²³⁴Th in surface sediments and on resuspended particles.²³⁴Th is a powerful example of the tools supplied by the radioactive daughters of the natural U and Th decay series in studying fluxes and exchange rates of solutes and particles across the sediment-water interface. A short review is given of these tools, and it is shown how they can be used to obtain rate information required to apply and calibrate specific resuspension models.