Use of a probabilistic particle tracking model to simulate the Prestige oil spill

A probabilistic particle tracking model is used to simulate the oil dispersion after the Prestige wreckage. This oil spill constitutes a suitable benchmark to analyze the capabilities of a probabilistic model, since the time elapsed from wreckage to oil landing (12 days) is much longer than the reliability time associated with forecast winds, usually on the order of 3–4 days. The particle model can be run in two different modes: real time mode (when existing reliable wind fields for the event under scope) and in probabilistic mode (in absence of reliable wind fields but with historical fields corresponding to a similar period). The validity of the particle model is first evaluated in a hindcast way, running the Prestige case with the wind fields corresponding to the period November 19 to November 30, 2002, which were not available at the moment of the wreckage. Calculations show the accuracy of the model to provide the right impact point and timing. The probabilistic model is then used to simulate the same event by means of historical data. The region where the oil landed is shown to be the area with the highest probability to be impacted.     

Geographical variation in traffic-related mortality and morbidity among pedestrians in Quebec, 1983-1988

In this study we analyze the dmographic and geographical distribution of pedestrian accidents (n=28,452) in the Quebec Municipalités régionales de comté (MRC) reported between January 1, 1983 and December 31, 1988. In order to be able to make comparisons between MRCs, we have created in Comparative Mortality Index and a Comparative Morbidity Index. We use a logistic regression model to single out explanatory factors. The main tendencies which are apparent in the demographic analysis are an overrepresentation of young persons and elderly persons in the accident statistics, and that men are more at risk than women. Men 15 years and under and men 65 years and over are more at risk of being involved in a fatal pedestrian accident. The geographic analysis show that among men, the average mortality rate is one and a half times greater in rural MRCs than in urban MRCs; among women, rural mortality is two and a half times greater than urban mortality. In the case of non-severe injuries we note an over-representation of urban MRCs. Young persons 15 years or less who live in an urban, populated zone are those most at risk of being involved in a pedestrian accident. Identifying high risk groups or areas is a prerequisite step for injury prevention and control.     

Optimal Active Suspension Design Using a Frequency-shaping PID Filter

By the incorporation of frequency-shaping into the linear quadratic methods used in active suspension design it is possible to achieve improvements in both body frequency response and road-holding. The use of a PID filter for this purpose also leads to robustness of the system to disturbance forces. Zero steady-state deflections are achieved for applied body loads by the integral action with excellent attenuation of the transient response. The resulting system consists of a hydraulic actuator in parallel with a body spring of arbitrary stiffness and is optimal with equivalent full state feedback.     

An evaluation of vehicle deceleration profiles

Vehicles stopping at signalized intersections were examined for the purpose of evaluating the validity of the common assumption of constant and uniform deceleration rates. The data set consisted of the first vehicles to stop upon the onset of the yellow signal interval with measurements of the initial approach speed, deceleration time, and deceleration distance. The deceleration rate may be computed using only two of the three measured values; thus the rate for each vehicle can be determined by three different equations. With nonuniform deceleration profiles, the equations will produce different values; and the degree of nonuniformity can be determined by comparing the differences in the computed deceleration rates. The analysis of the field observations indicated that 69 percent of the vehicles demonstrated deceleration profiles associated with nonuniform deceleration rates. Furthermore, the deceleration profile and the degree of nonuniformity were found to be a function of the initial approach speed.     

Initial results from long-term measurements of atmospheric humidity and related parameters in the marine boundary layer at two locations in the Gulf of Mexico

Measurements of boundary layer moisture have been acquired from Rotronic MP-100 sensors deployed on two NDBC buoys in the northern Gulf of Mexico from June through November 1993. For one sensor, which was retrieved approximately 8 months after deployment, the post- and precalibrations agreed closely and fell well within WMO specifications for accuracy. The second sensor operated continuously from June 1993 to February 1997 (3.5 years). Buoy observations of relative humidity and supporting data were used to calculate specific humidity and the surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat. Specific humidities from the buoys were compared with observations of moisture obtained from nearby ship reports, and the correlations were generally high (0.7–0.9). Surface gravity wave spectra were also acquired. The time series of specific humidity and the other buoy parameters revealed three primary scales of variability, small (h), synoptic (days), and seasonal (months). The synoptic variability was clearly dominant and occurred primarily during September, October, and November. Most of the synoptic variability was due to frontal systems that dropped down into the Gulf of Mexico from the continental US followed by air masses which were cold and dry. Cross-correlation analyses of the buoy data indicated that: (1) the moisture field was highly coherent over distances of 800 km or more in the northern Gulf of Mexico; and (2) both specific humidity and air temperature served as tracers of the motion associated with propagating atmospheric disturbances. These correlation analyses also revealed that the prevailing weather systems generally entered the buoy domain from the South prior to September, but primarily from the North thereafter. Spectra of the various buoy parameters indicated strong diurnal and semidiurnal variability for barometric pressure and sea surface temperature (SST) and lesser variability for air temperature, wind speed and significant wave height. The surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat were dominated by the synoptic events which took place from September through November with the transfer of latent heat being primarily from the ocean to the atmosphere. Finally, an analysis of the surface wave observations from each buoy, which included calculations of wave age and estimates of surface roughness, indicate that major heat and moisture flux events coincide with periods of active wave growth, although the data were insufficient to identify any causal relationships.     

The Effect of Topboxes on Motorcycle Stability

Hot wire anenometry measurements have been made in the wake of a model motorcycle and rider mounted in a windtunnel. Only in tests with a topbox present is there clear evidence of eddy shedding. Calculations have been performed on the corresponding full-scale motorcycle to determine the frequencies of the weave and wobble modes. Comparison with the wake frequencies extrapolated to full size show that at speeds of 31-34 m/s they coincide with those of the wobble mode which is found to be efficiently coupled to the aerodynamic excitation.     

带功率因数补偿的单相半控桥整流器(一)

介绍了绘制正弦线电流的开关模式单相半控桥整流器,用它来获得功率因数补偿并保持直流环节电压的恒定.在该整流器中使用4个有源开关,以便在交流端电压上产生单极脉宽调制(PWM)电压波形.与中性点箝位变流器(NPC)相比,该整流器没有箝位二极管也能实现三点式PWM控制.控制电路采用两个控制回路:外部控制回路用比例积分电压控制器调整直流环节电压,采用相位闭环电路产生与电源电压同相的正弦波形来实现功率因数补偿.在内部控制回路中,用基于载波的电流控制器跟踪线电流信号.为补偿由于负载变化所引起的中点电压,控制电路采用中点电压补偿器.该整流器的交流侧可产生3个电压电平,并用计算机仿真与试验结果验证了控制算法的有效性.     

The shoaling of nutrient-enriched subsurface waters as a mechanism to sustain primary productivity off Central Baja California during El Niño winters

Using CalCOFI data for coastal shallow stations (above 100 m depth), higher than expected nitrate concentrations were detected in near-surface high-temperature waters off of Central Baja California during some El Niño winters. Though recent data are not available for Central Baja California, past El Niño data, though limited, showed nitrate concentrations above 16 μM at temperatures above 16 °C, and nitrate concentrations between 1 and 2 μM at 19 °C, while the previously established relationship of temperature and nitrate for California Current waters predicts nitrate depletion above 14 or 15 °C. The anomalous, high temperature–high nitrate enrichment events documented in Central Baja California were detected as shallow as 9 m and as deep as 73 m, were associated with low-oxygen (between 2 and 4 ml/l) and high-salinity (between 33.8 and 34.3 psu) waters, and occurred during the winter months of an El Niño year. Using recent data for San Diego, CA, similar but weaker enrichment events were detected for the El Niño winter of 1997–1998. The periodic shoaling of a subsurface subtropical water mass of high temperature, high salinity, low oxygen and high nutrients during some El Niño winters is proposed to cause periodic enrichment and to maintain productivity during warming events in this area. Enrichment events were not detected off Ensenada, in Northern Baja California, possibly due to the amplification of the onshore flow during El Niño there, or due to the Ensenada front. The proposed mechanism of periodic enrichment of nutrient-depleted surface waters during some El Niño winters by subsurface waters from the California Undercurrent may explain the following: (1) survival of giant kelp forests at their southern limit in Central Baja California documented during past El Niño events in warm waters, (2) the rapid recovery and high carrying capacity of giant kelp documented after the mass disappearance during El Niño 1997–1998, and (3) the increase in the extent of mesotrophic chlorophyll detected in the area during the 1997–1998 and 1982–1983 El Niño events.     

Shipping and investment incentives: a trilogy Part 3. The effectiveness of investment incentives for shipping—the UK experience 1950-1987

This paper concentrates on the determinants of investment and examines both theoretical and empirical work on the investment function. The major determinants are considered and a case study of the United Kingdom shipping industry in the period 1963-1987 is undertaken. The analysis is unable to find any real link between the value of the investment incentives packages available to the UK shipping industry and the size of the UK fleet during this period. The conclusion follows that while financial factors (e.g. favourable credit arrangements) or individual components (e.g. investment grants) of fiscal packages may influence the decision to invest, the total package has not affected the level of shipping investment in the manner expected.     

Performance estimation model of a torque converter part I: Correlation between the internal flow field and energy loss coefficient

The objective of this paper is to improve the performance estimation model of the internal flow field of a torque converter. Compared with performance experiment results, the converter based on the one-dimensional model does not satisfy the performance requirements demanded in practice. Therefore, we need to develop more predictable and reliable performance estimation models. In order to obtain shape information on three-dimensional blade geometry, a process of reverse engineering conducts a torque converter assembly, impeller, turbine and stator. In addition, a CFD simulation including mesh generation and post-processing was carried out to extract equivalent parameters from the internal flow field. The internal flow field can be explained by analyze the correlation between a performance estimation model and CFD analysis. The equivalent performance model adopts the variation of energy loss coefficients for a given operating condition according to the application of a changing energy loss coefficient by the least mean squares method. The estimated equivalent model improves the agreement in performance between experiments and the theoretical model. This model can reduce the error to within about 3 percent. Furthermore, this procedure for predicted performance achieves eminence in the estimation of the capacity factor.