Cross-shelf circulation and phytoplankton distribution at the summertime New England shelfbreak front

We investigate aspects of the secondary (cross-shelf) circulation at the Middle Atlantic Bight shelfbreak front using high-resolution data collected on the New England Shelf in August 2002. The alongshore shelfbreak jet coincides with the front at the seaward edge of the cold pool (remnant winter shelf water) and there is a suggestion of a cross-stream convergence centered at the jet core. Despite indications of convergence we found no evidence of a surface subduction on the seaward side of the front. At depth 70 m near the shelfbreak there was a patch of chlorophyll, located within a local temperature–salinity maximum which, though significantly below the euphotic zone, appeared to be photo-acclimated and viable. The chlorophyll feature could be the result of a local subduction by a larger scale eddy circulation seaward of the front.Dye tracer experiments directly observed the convergence at the foot of the shelfbreak front and subsequent upwelling of bottom boundary layer water along the shoreward side of the shelfbreak front. But, we found no evidence that this upwelling influenced productivity at the front. Further, since there was no cross-shelf maximum in subsurface chlorophyll at the front, we conclude that this productivity is in general, sustained by a broadly distributed local vertical nutrient flux from an underlying nutrient reservoir.     

The use of digital filter initialization to diagnose the mesoscale circulation and vertical motion in the California coastal transition zone

A dynamical method of initializing the primitive equations is tested and used to diagnose the three-dimensional circulation associated with jets and eddies as found in the California coastal transition zone (CTZ). The initialization method, referred to as digital filter initialization (DFI), was recently developed by [Monthly Weather Review 120 (1992) 1019] for use in an intermittent data assimilation system in the atmosphere. The ability of DFI to recover the mesoscale ageostrophic circulation associated with finite amplitude jets and eddies in the ocean is first demonstrated using control data produced by simulations with a primitive equation model. The DFI method is then applied to synoptic hydrographic data collected during several California CTZ surveys in the summer of 1988. The diagnostic results indicate the existence of jets, eddies, and filaments in the CTZ domain with maximum horizontal currents of the order of 0.6 m/s at the surface. Currents associated with such jets and filaments are coherent to a depth of over 500 m. The surface currents associated with a prominent cool filament are generally confluent, and weakly convergent on average, along the 270 km offshore extent of the filament. Meanders in the jet display convergence and downwelling upstream of pressure troughs and divergence and upwelling downstream of the troughs. Maximum vertical velocities at 100 m are of the order of 10 m/day. This result is consistent with independent estimates of subduction rates made from biological studies in this and similar coastal filaments in the CTZ program.     

Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts

Traffic forecasts are employed in the toll road sector, inter alia, by private sector investors to gauge the bankability of candidate investment projects. Although much is written in the literature about the theory and practice of traffic forecasting, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the predictive accuracy of traffic forecasting models. This paper addresses that shortcoming by reporting the results from the largest study of toll road forecasting performance ever conducted. The author had access to commercial-in-confidence documentation released to project financiers and, over a 4-year period, compiled a database of predicted and actual traffic usage for over 100 international, privately financed toll road projects. The findings suggest that toll road traffic forecasts are characterised by large errors and considerable optimism bias. As a result, financial engineers need to ensure that transaction structuring remains flexible and retains liquidity such that material departures from traffic expectations can be accommodated.

Research review of air traffic management

As air transport demand keeps growing more quickly than system capacity, efficient and effective management of system capacity becomes essential to the operation of the future global air traffic system. Although research in the past two decades has made significant progress in relevant research fields, e.g. air traffic flow management and airport capacity modelling, research loopholes in air traffic management still exist and links between different research areas are required to enhance the system performance of air traffic management. Hence, the objective of this paper is to review systematically current research in the literature about the issue of air traffic management to prioritize productive research areas. Papers about air traffic management are discussed and categorized into two levels: system and airport. The system level of air transport research includes two main topics: air traffic flow management and airspace research. On the airport level, research topics are: airport capacity, airport facility utilization, aircraft operations in the airport terminal manoeuvring area as well as aircraft ground operations research. Potential research interests to focus on in the future are the integration between airspace capacity and airport capacity, the establishment of airport information systems to use airport capacity better, and the improvement in flight schedule planning to improve the reliability of schedule implementation.     

Local organization of transportation planning activities in the United States

This study provided an examination of the alternative means used by Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) to carry out transportation planning activities in different areas of the U.S.A. This has been done by first developing a general profile of the nature and functions of the MPOs in the 100 largest regions in the U.S. and by an in‐depth analysis of seven regions. The purpose of these activities was to examine similarities and differences between MPOs and to identify factors that appear to lead to the effectiveness or non‐effectiveness of MPOs in different areas. From the analysis, it is evident that there are wide differences between MPOs in their organization, function, and degree of effectiveness in carrying out transportation planning. These differences do not appear to be related to any structural characteristics of MPOs, but rather are the result of past history and the attitudes of people involved.     

Prospects for computer aided railway scheduling: perspectives from users and parallels from mass transit

Railway scheduling faces new challenges as competition and, in many parts of the world, privatisation require ever better results, both in terms of minimising the resources used and maximising the performance achieved by those resources. It is therefore surprising that in practice railway scheduling tasks appear to be performed largely without the use of optimizing models. This paper takes two different perspectives, a case study of user needs from the UK railway industry and a comparative analysis with mass transit scheduling systems, to consider why this might be and assesses what the future prospects are for computer aided railway scheduling.

A number of conclusions are drawn: that optimization models need to be integrated with software packages that meet schedulers' data management needs; that researchers need to work with commercial developers to achieve this integration; that there needs to be an emphasis on extending models to cover more real‐life circumstances; and that solutions with international applicability should be sought.     

Mobility evaluation for urban public transportation

Summary

This paper has reported on a study of relative opportunity—not absolute opportunity. Minimum absolute standards for mobility or accessibility are difficult to justify. Some additional study into the development and application of absolute mobility standards may be warranted.

The application of the mobility evaluation model has primarily focused upon a corridor line‐haul system. Conclusions suggest that such a system will not markedly improve existing transit mobility levels in either the peak hour or the off‐peak. The experimental work has verified this conclusion, and more importantly, it has detailed quantitatively the exact levels and spatial distribution of mobility improvements. However, this study does not include a comprehensive analysis of all methods of mobility enhancement, nor does it undertake a comparison of alternative means of mobility improvement. Certainly other methods to improve access to opportunities should be explored before policy considerations are finalized. These methods include other transit solutions, land use alternatives, socio‐economic policies, and other‐mode transportation alternatives. The accessibility technique and mobility indices approach appears to have general applicability in the analysis of optimal strategies for system evaluation.

Of interest is an examination of alternative feeder transit systems to the corridor line. Additional research with the model might point out the maximum mobility effects expected through improved collector service in the suburbs, with corridor line‐haul to the CBD.

The indices are also readily available for a comparison of mobility patterns for different urban areas. Application of the program to transit and socio‐economic data for a set of cities would yield an indication of the relative mobility levels provided. Such data might be considered as an evaluation criterion for future transit funding by federal officials.

In addition, the model is currently being considered by UMTA as a tool to aid in the evaluation of the equitable distribution of transit system benefits as defined in Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.²⁵ The mobility output would serve as an indicator of the levels‐of‐service provided to certain disadvantaged urban groups. For this application the computer model is being altered to achieve compatability with the Transportation Planning System (UTPS) computer model package developed by UMTA.     

The vehicle emissions and performance monitoring system: analysis of tailpipe emissions and vehicle performance

This paper describes tailpipe emission results generated by the Vehicle Performance and Emissions Monitoring system (VPEMS). VPEMS integrates on‐board emissions and vehicle/driver performance measurements with positioning and communications technologies, to transmit a coherent spatio‐temporally referenced dataset to a central base station in near real time. These results focus on relationships between tailpipe emissions of CO, CO₂, NO_x and speed and acceleration. Emissions produced by different driving modes are also presented. Results are generally as one would expect, showing variation between vehicle speed, vehicle acceleration and emissions. Data is based upon a test run in central London on urban streets with speeds not exceeding about 65 km/h. The results presented demonstrate the capabilities of the system. Various issues remain with regard to validation of the data and expansion of the system capability to obtain additional vehicle performance data.     

High-resolution surveys of the biogeochemistry of the New England shelfbreak front during Summer, 2002

We present the observations from a pair of field experiments at the New England shelfbreak front in June and August of 2002, each consisting of 14 cross-frontal surveys using the Lamont Pumping SeaSoar. Measurements of the front's physical, chemical, and bio-optical characteristics were made at high spatial and temporal resolution. The front, based on water-column hydrographic distributions, was found within a few km of the 200 m isobath during both cruises. We present here composite sections, based on averages of individual sections shifted in space to a common frontal location, of the cross-frontal distributions of these properties as a measure of the mean state of the front in both June and August. The observations show the familiar temperature, salinity, and density distributions of the summertime front, dominated by surface thermal heating. Nutrient and bio-optical distributions show the combined effects of water-mass exchange and biological processes. T, S, silicate, and phosphate distributions are suggestive of cross-frontal exchange of slope- and shelf waters, although transport mechanisms and pathways are not apparent. These properties, along with nitrate and optical measures of the suspended particle distributions, show vertical displacements of isopleths as the front is approached: property contours slope upwards toward the front from the shoreward side, and downwards toward the front from the seaward side. Again, actual water-movement pathways are not constrained by these suggestive patterns. Bio-optical distributions show elevated indicators of photosynthetic efficiency both seaward and shoreward of the front, but the front itself is a minimum in biomass. Accumulation of photosynthetic biomass appears to be controlled primarily by nitrate scarcity in waters within and above the pycnocline. At the base of the pycnocline, light limitation appears to be the controlling factor, although the base of the euphotic zone is deeper than the biomass maxima and the base of the pycnocline. Mechanisms explaining this phenomenon are unclear, but tenuous evidence suggests low stratification at the depth of the 1% light level may not allow phytoplankton to optimize for the low-light, high-nutrient conditions at depth. Cross-frontal differences in nutrient and bio-optical parameters, particularly in August, suggest distinct phytoplankton assemblages, and the presence of calcite-forming or nitrogen fixing groups to the community structure, especially in very shallow waters across the front and in pycnocline waters seaward of the front.