Measuring user benefits of changes in the transport system when traveler awareness is limited

This paper derives and illustrates measures for the ex ante evaluation of user benefits associated with improvements in the transport system. In contrast with conventional analyses, we assume that awareness among travelers of changes in the transport system is limited and grows over time. Specifically, we postulate that each day (trip) provides travelers with an opportunity to learn about changes that occurred recently in the transport system. This learning process may involve learning through direct experience and indirect learning through for example social networks or information provision. Our measure of user benefits incorporates the conventional logsum-measure as a special case (when full awareness is assumed) and has a closed form solution under reasonable error term assumptions. A numerical illustration provides a first sign of face validity. We derive and discuss a number of practical implications, and discuss possible model extensions.     

船舶发展与船级社未来的使命

1 引言 随着经济国际化和全球化的发展,航运业已在世界贸易中占据了核心地位.国际贸易中,90%以上的运输任务是由船舶承担的.基本上可以这么说,船舶的优劣,关系着环境状况的好坏.船舶每吨英里所消耗的燃料相当于汽车的1/5,相当于飞机的1/20.正是因为有宽广的海洋,陆上的交通压力才得以减轻.尽管航运业在最近20年间遇到了各种各样的困难,但前景依然是美好的.有显著的迹象表明:亚洲金融危机基本上已得到遏制,国际贸易正朝着健康的方向发展.国际海上贸易平均每增长一个百分点,就会带动世界商船队增加700万载重吨的运力.     

Variability of the western Galician upwelling system (NW Spain) during an intensively sampled annual cycle. An EOF analysis approach

The key features of the western Galician shelf hydrography and dynamics are analyzed on a solid statistical and experimental basis. The results allowed us to gather together information dispersed in previous oceanographic works of the region. Empirical orthogonal functions analysis and a canonical correlation analysis were applied to a high-resolution dataset collected from 47 surveys done on a weekly frequency from May 2001 to May 2002. The main results of these analyses are summarized bellow. Salinity, temperature and the meridional component of the residual current are correlated with the relevant local forcings (the meridional coastal wind component and the continental run-off) and with a remote forcing (the meridional temperature gradient at latitude 37°N). About 80% of the salinity and temperature total variability over the shelf, and 37% of the residual meridional current total variability are explained by two EOFs for each variable. Up to 22% of the temperature total variability and 14% of the residual meridional current total variability is devoted to the set up of cross-shore gradients of the thermohaline properties caused by the wind-induced Ekman transport. Up to 11% and 10%, respectively, is related to the variability of the meridional temperature gradient at the Western Iberian Winter Front. About 30% of the temperature total variability can be explained by the development and erosion of the seasonal thermocline and by the seasonal variability of the thermohaline properties of the central waters. This thermocline presented unexpected low salinity values due to the trapping during spring and summer of the high continental inputs from the River Miño recorded in 2001. The low salinity plumes can be traced on the Galician shelf during almost all the annual cycle; they tend to be extended throughout the entire water column under downwelling conditions and concentrate in the surface layer when upwelling favourable winds blow. Our evidences point to the meridional temperature gradient acting as an important controlling factor of the central waters thermohaline properties and in the development and decay of the Iberian Poleward Current.     

Multi‐criteria analysis for evaluating the impacts of intelligent speed adaptation

Road safety is a policy priority due to the high casualties and costs associated with road accidents. Since speed is a major cause of road accidents, in‐vehicle speed limiters or Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA), seems a promising solution. ISA implementation, however, is hindered by large uncertainties, for example about the impacts of ISA, the way users might respond to ISA, and the relationship between speed and accidents. Traditional Multi‐Criteria Analysis (MCA) has limitations in handling these uncertainties. We present an MCA approach based on exploratory modeling, which uses computational experiments to explore the multiple outcomes of ISA policies (safety, emissions, throughput, and cost) across a range of future demand scenarios, functional relationships for performance criteria, and user responses to ISA. As an illustration, by testing the impacts of different ISA penetration levels on two driver groups, we show that when compliance with ISA is expected to be low, a policy aimed only at novice drivers outperforms other ISA policies on safety improvement.     

Tanker safety: Regulatory change

There are many regulatory changes being imposed on tanker operators of new and existing ships. This paper provides a brief on the main changes and their practical impact on design and operation i.e. the significant recent and upcoming revisions to IMO MARPOL Annexes I, II and VI, SOLAS and other regulations and the IACS Common Structural Rules.     

基于遗传算法的盾构隧道管片接头刚度反演研究北大核心CSCD

梁-弹簧模型在管片衬砌结构计算中应用较广泛,目前接头刚度取值方法主要有模型试验法及经验取值法,模型试验法耗时长、成本高昂,而依据经验取值难免存在一定主观性。鉴于此,利用C++编程语言,基于遗传算法开发了盾构隧道管片结构位移反分析程序,首先通过弹性模量值反演算例,得出反演值与理论值误差为1.4%,验证了算法和程序的可行性。利用程序将反演接头刚度值与实际设计案例管片接头刚度值进行对比,反演计算结果表明:正弯矩下管片环向接头转动刚度值反演误差为2.6%,负弯矩下管片环向接头转动刚度值反演误差为4.3%。     

Optimization of bus allocation to depots by minimizing dead kilometers

In metropolitan cities, public transportation service plays a vital role in mobility of people, and it has to introduce new routes more frequently due to the fast development of the city in terms of population growth and city size. Whenever there is introduction of new route or increase in frequency of buses, the non‐revenue kilometers covered by the buses increases as depot and route starting/ending points are at different places. This non‐revenue kilometers or dead kilometers depends on the distance between depot and route starting point/ending point. The dead kilometers not only results in revenue loss but also results in an increase in the operating cost because of the extra kilometers covered by buses. Reduction of dead kilometers is necessary for the economic growth of the public transportation system. Therefore, in this study, the attention is focused on minimizing dead kilometers by optimizing allocation of buses to depots depending upon the shortest distance between depot and route starting/ending points. We consider also depot capacity and time period of operation during allocation of buses to ensure parking safety and proper maintenance of buses. Mathematical model is developed considering the aforementioned parameters, which is a mixed integer program, and applied to Bangalore Metropolitan Transport Corporation (BMTC) routes operating presently in order to obtain optimal bus allocation to depots. Database for dead kilometers of depots in BMTC for all the schedules are generated using the Form‐4 (trip sheet) of each schedule to analyze depot‐wise and division‐wise dead kilometers. This study also suggests alternative locations where depots can be located to reduce dead kilometers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Derivation of delays based on improved macroscopic traffic models

Recent improved and rigorous mathematical models describing the formation and dissipation of queues at signalized intersections are employed for deriving delay and effective queue size. Analytical and numerical solutions are presented that are applicable for both isolated and coordinated intersections. Comparisons against results obtained from conventional models reveals significant differences. Further, it is demonstrated that the current practice of calculating delays from input-output analysis results in substantial overestimation of delays. Numerical examples supporting this finding are presented.     

The most likely trip matrix estimated from traffic counts

For a large number of applications conventional methods for estimating an origin destination matrix become too expensive to use. Two models, based on information minimisation and entropy maximisation principles, have been developed by the authors to estimate an O-D matrix from traffic counts. The models assume knowledge of the paths followed by the vehicles over the network. The models then use the traffic counts to estimate the most likely O-D matrix consistent with the link volumes available and any prior information about the trip matrix. Both models can be used to update and improve a previous O-D matrix. An algorithm to find a solution to the model is then described. The models have been tested with artificial data and performed reasonably well. Further research is being carried out to validate the models with real data.