Using demand elasticities from disaggregate mode choice models

Three of the most highly regarded disaggregate mode split models incorporate very different estimates of the responsiveness, or elasticity, of mode choice to changes in auto travel times and costs. These differences appear to be due in part to the varying specifications used by the model, and particularly whether certain variables (such as a dummy variable for CBD destinations or automobile ownership) are included in addition to the more traditional variables (such as travel time, cost, and household income). More research is needed on the implications of the theory of traveler choices for model specification and the effect of alternative, but theoretically justifiable, specifications on elasticity estimates. Until this research reduces our uncertainty about the elasticity of demand, analysts evaluating transportation policies should assess the sensitivity of their results to the range of plausible elasticities or models.     

满足安全性、用户效益和价格要求的奥地利联邦铁路BR 4023/4024型电动车组

一方面由于近郊客运的资金减少,另一方面由于安全性要求的提高,新造动车越来越受到压低价格的困扰.同时运营者和旅客又希望新车有更好的舒适性(如低地板上下车区、空调设备),因此要求制造厂在考虑现代化动车的最佳性能参数时,能够既降低车辆成本又满足现代化的要求.Talent动车一族的模块化设计提供了高度舒适且市场价格低廉的最现代化技术.这种成功的设计和理念已在不同用户的350辆Talent车辆上得到了证实.     

Impact of proposed federal limits on US bagged food aid shipments: reduction in MSF carrier profits—a risk assessment 1

This paper is a stochastic risk simulation of the impact of proposed federal tonnage limits on US Maritime Security Fleet (MSF) bagged food aid shipments. Only MSF (i.e. federally subsidized carriers/vessels for war, or emergencies) and non-MSF US carriers (therefore, at competitive disadvantage) can compete for such shipments—representing an indirect subsidy to both groups. To compensate, US Congress proposed a financial penalty (loss of voyage subsidy) on MSF carriers for food aid above a certain limit. Accordingly, certain carriers will be policy 'winners' (non-MSF—larger food aid shipments), and others 'losers' (MSF). By simulating loss-minimizing economic behaviour by MSF carriers—using five stochastic factors—I obtain losses substantially below those claimed by the MSF owners.

Simulated annual-average MSF profits reduction is $3.5 million—within a large confidence interval; if no carriers surrender their subsidies (as claimed by MSF owners), a reduction of $6.0 million. Only 16% of annual MSF voyages are affected by a 2,500-ton limit (3%; 5,000-ton limit). Minimizing losses, 25 (of 41 affected) annual MSF voyages replace 38,000 tons of food aid with 23,000 tons of other cargo—forgoing $2.1 million in yearly direct subsidies. Two assumptions explain most of this simulated loss reduction.     

A New Wheel/Rail Spatially Dynamic Coupling Model and its Verification

Based on the theory of vehicle-track coupling dynamics, a new wheel/rail spatially dynamic coupling model is established in this paper. In consideration of rail lateral, vertical and torsion vibrations and track irregularities, the wheel/rail contact geometry, the wheel/rail normal contact force and the wheel/rail tangential creep force are solved in detail. In the new wheel/rail model, the assumption that wheel contacts rail rigidly and wheel always contacts rail is eliminated. Finally, by numeric simulation comparison with international well-known software NUCARS, comparison with vehicle-track vertical coupling model, and comparison with running test results by China Academy of Railway Sciences, the new wheel/rail spatially dynamic coupling model is shown to be correct and effective.     

An analysis of elevator operation in moderate height buildings—II: Multiple elevators

Deterministic approximations for elevator trip times are applied to a system of m elevators. Comparisons of in-system time of passengers are made for elevators which are (a) physically separated, (b) ideally controlled, (c) zoned, or (d) uncontrolled. A more detailed study is then made of in-system passenger time for a pair of elevators subject to a minimum headway control at the lobby. Comparisons are made between rather primitive analytic estimates and simulation results.The main conclusion is that control of headways so as to prevent pairing is of doubtful value. At low traffic it is usually better to use no control; for higher traffic it is better to zone the building and have each elevator serve separate floors.     

Co-operation among CMEA member countries in maritime transport

This paper highlights some of the major activities in developing an appropriate framework and modalities of co-operation among CMEA member countries in maritime transport. These include the working out of various basic documents determining objectives, directions and methods of co-operation. Particular attention is devoted to the Comprehensive Programme for the Further Extension and Improvement of Co-operation and the Development of Socialist Economic Integration of the CMEA Member Countries and to the first inter-governmental Agreement on Co-operation in Merchant Shipping. Relevant activities of the CMEA are described, in particular, in the fields of joint planning and chartering, as well as its mechanisms for developing and promoting co-operation.     

Dynamic Interaction of Railway Systems with Large Bridges

In this paper have been described

- railway runability problems on large span bridges;

- the state-of-art of the methodologies adopted for a systematic analysis of the dynamic behaviour of railway vehicles running on a deformable structure, with particular reference to large span suspension bridges;

- some meaningful experimental and analytical results, related to railway runability of large span bridges.     

On the relation of structure, perception and activity in marine planktonic copepods

The goal of this paper is to illustrate how in juvenile and adult subtropical marine planktonic copepods various structures or morphological features function in concert to detect prey and predators. Without motion by either food (e.g. flagellate, ciliate) or feeder (e.g. feeding current) or both (e.g. Acartia spp. and ciliate) few feeding activities will occur. Through motion a food particle is either perceived mechanically or chemically to be followed by appendage activities. A combination of mechano- and chemosensors on their cephalic appendages (and probably on other extremities) serve juvenile and adult copepods to perceive signals. Perception is followed by alternation of motion and sensing by these appendages, or by no motion at all (e.g. behavior by Eucalanus pileatus when perceiving a weak hydrodynamic signal). Non-moving and extended sensors (setae) are best suited for mechanical/hydrodynamic perceptions in those copepods which lack a feeding current and hardly move. Numerous mechanosensors arranged in three dimensions on the first antennae (A1) are required to perceive the precise location of moving prey at a distance (e.g. Oithona feeding on ciliates but also sinking particles). Those copepods which create a weak or intermittent feeding current can supplement nutrition with carnivory, which requires perception by the A1 (e.g. Centropages velificatus adults). These two groups require, in addition to perception of prey motion/location, rapid motion by their appendages (A1, second maxillae M2, etc.) to capture the prey. Nauplii, which satiate at far lower food levels than adults, have one of several means of food acquisition: encounter through forward motion, perception through feeding current, or perception of a moving food particle. The nearly continuous motion of most calanoid nauplii makes them vulnerable to predation because all three pairs of appendages are usually moving. Opposite are nauplii of cyclopoid and a few calanoid species which move only occasionally. Copepodid stages and adults use non-moving and often extended setae on the tips of their A1 to perceive predators at a distance. This structure and their pronounced escape motion may reduce their vulnerability to predation as compared to nauplii.     

A fuzzy method for predicting the demand for rail freight transportation

The demand for rail freight transportation is a continuously changing process over space and time and is affected by many quantitative and qualitative factors. In order to develop a more rational transport planning process to be followed by railway organizations, there is a need to accurately forecast freight demand under a dynamic and uncertain environment. In conventional linear regression analysis, the deviations between the observed and the estimated values are supposed to be due to observation errors. In this paper, taking a different perspective, these deviations are regarded as the fuzziness of the system's structure. The details of fuzzy linear regression method are put forward and discussed in the paper. Based on an analyzes of the characteristics of the rail transportation problem, the proposed model was successfully applied to a real example from China. The results of that application are also presented here.     

单、双层衬砌隧道的非线性有限元分析

采用一种接触磨擦单元并利用广泛应用于岩土工程分析的 Mohr- Coulomb塑性准则对同一隧道采用不同的衬砌类型的结构性能进行了比较分析 ,取得了一些有意义的结果