Estimating a model of dynamic activity generation based on one-day observations: Method and results

In this paper we develop and explore an approach to estimate dynamic models of activity generation on one-day travel-diary data. Dynamic models predict multi-day activity patterns of individuals taking into account dynamic needs as well as day-varying preferences and time-budgets. We formulate an ordered-logit model of dynamic activity-agenda-formation decisions and show how one-day observation probabilities can be derived from the model as a function of the model’s parameters and, with that, how parameters can be estimated using standard loglikelihood estimation. A scale parameter cannot be identified because information on within-person variability is lacking in one-day data. An application of the method to data from a national travel survey illustrates the method. A test on simulated data indicates that, given a pre-set scale, the parameters can be identified and that estimates are robust for a source of heterogeneity not captured in the model. This result indicates that dynamic activity-based models of the kind considered here can be estimated from data that are less costly to collect and that support the large sample sizes typically required for travel-demand modeling. We conclude therefore that the proposed approach opens up a way to develop large-scale dynamic activity-based models of travel demand.     

Embedding risk attitude and decision weights in non-linear logit to accommodate time variability in the value of expected travel time savings

In recent years we have seen important extensions of logit models in behavioural research such as incorporation of preference and scale heterogeneity, attribute processing heuristics, and estimation of willingness to pay (WTP) in WTP space. With rare exception, however, a non-linear treatment of the parameter set to allow for behavioural reality, such as embedded risk attitude and perceptual conditioning of occurrence probabilities attached to specific attributes, is absent. This is especially relevant to the recent focus in travel behaviour research on identifying the willingness to pay for reduced travel time variability, which is the source of estimates of the value of trip reliability that has been shown to take on an increasingly important role in project appraisal. This paper incorporates, in a generalised non-linear (in parameters) logit model, alternative functional forms for perceptual conditioning (known as probability weighting) and risk attitude in the utility function to account for travel time variability, and then derives an empirical estimate of the willingness to pay for trip time variability-embedded travel time savings as an alternative to separate estimates of time savings and trip time reliability. We illustrate the richness of the approach using a stated choice data set for commuter choice between unlabelled attribute packages. Statistically significant risk attitude parameters and parameters underlying decision weights are estimated for multinomial logit and mixed multinomial logit models, along with values of expected travel time savings.     

Hybrid vehicle power management modeling and refinement

The power management strategy in many hybrid vehicles is based on expert rules and thresholds. These rule-based strategies can result in good efficiency in term of fuel economy and emissions if their thresholds and rules are accurate. However, due to the complexity and the non-linearity of the hybrid powertrain, determining accurate thresholds and rules is neither explicit nor straightforward, and experts in most cases fail to define these thresholds and rules with enough accuracy. Based on this fact, the objective of this paper is to propose a method to improve this rule-based strategy by refining its thresholds and rules. To achieve this, we used an optimization method (dynamic programming) to calculate the optimal power management, determine the optimal control signals, and extract efficient thresholds and rules that can be used in real time. Finally, simulation results for the three strategies (optimal, simple and refined strategy) are shown and discussed.     

Possible experimental method to determine the suspension parameters in a simplified model of a passenger car

Currently, as well as in the past, researchers have shown great interest in developing suspension systems for vehicles and especially in the design and optimization of the suspension parameters, such as the stiffness and the damping coefficient. These parameters are considered to be important factors that have an influence on safety and improve the comfort of the passengers in the vehicle. This paper describes a simplified methodology to determine, in a quick manner, the suspension parameters for different types of passenger cars equipped with passive suspension systems. Currently, different types of passenger cars are produced with different types of suspension systems. Finding a simplified methodology to determine these parameters with sufficient accuracy would contribute a simplified and quick method to the inspection of the working conditions of a suspension system. Therefore, a simple system to determine these parameters is needed. An analysis of the suspension parameters is performed using mathematical modeling and numerical analysis conducted using the Working Model software. The result derived from the developed methodology shows small errors when compared with the generic values, and it can be concluded that the design of the suspension parameter measurement device using the developed methodology is useful, simple, and has sufficient accuracy.     

Forme urbaine et mobilité domicile-travail dans 13 aires urbaines françaises : une analyse multiéchelle

This article provides a multi-scale analysis of the links between commuting patterns and urban form by using both morphological and more classical indicators of urban form (like density). Thirteen French urban areas of more than 500,000 inhabitants (excluding Paris) are compared. The findings highlight the complexity of the links between urban form and commuting patterns because the same indicators of urban form do not have the same influence according to the spatial scale. Even if the influence of the morphological indicators is lower than that of more classical socioeconomic variables (income level, motorization rate), our study discusses the various and multi-scale consequences of urban development on daily travel behaviour.     

Recent technical and management improvements in US inland waterway transportation

Over the last several years, the US inland waterway transportation industry has significantly reduced its fuel consumption and improved its efficiency, with the side effect of less fuel tax collected per ton of cargo carried, despite the increase in cargo traffic. Fuel tax revenues are used for rehabilitation and construction projects in the inland waterway system, hence the US Army Corps of Engineers, providing us with relevant data over the interval in question, asked us to investigate this surprising reduction, and determine the main technical and fleet management improvements that caused it. Our research involved both visits with most major US inland waterway fleets, interviews with their engineers and managers, as well as statistical analysis of the above data. Technical improvements (such as engine plant efficiency increases), lighter, stronger building materials (such as light steel), and improved designs for better hydrodynamics, were not as important compared to management improvements (such as the use of computer-aided monitoring systems and advanced telecommunications, optimized tow configuration and speed, and increased triangular trips as opposed to simple round trips with returns empty). In addition, the demand for less expensive, imported steel for the US has resulted in an increased percentage of fully loaded return trips from New Orleans to the US Midwest, and hence also in increased fleet utilization.     

Deregulating the bus industry in Britain: a rejoinder

In our critique for the Buses White Paper, we argued that ‘competition for licences’ could achieve most of the benefits of competition without the major disadvantages of ‘competition on the road’. In response to the comments of Beesley and Glaister, we explain how comprehensive franchising of good and bad routes alike would encourage effective competition, whilst providing conditions for the transparent continuation of cross‐subsidy where that was the choice of the local authority in question. We correct their misrepresentation of our arguments on the desirability of cross‐subsidy and on the case for minibuses, and explain why we believe that such cost savings as are achieved will be mainly at the expense of staff or customer service. Finally, we restate the case for believing that a unified planned timetable will provide a better service for a given level of resources than will uncoordinated competitive services.     

Airport ground transportation management: moving towards the turn of the century

Over the last fifty years ground transportation management (GTM) has slowly evolved into a major function at most larger airports. However, during this time there has been relatively little written discussing the idea, organization structures or duties included within this functional activity. This paper reviews and updates the limited, earlier research. This study replicates initial work done in 1989 and thus provides a short longitudinal view of the airport GTM function. The final results demonstrate the current position of GTM and suggest trends for the future.     

Economic appraisal of European transport projects: The state-of-the-art revisited

Substantial investment has been made at national and European level in transport infrastructure over the past 50 years and is likely to continue in the future. The need to appraise transport projects in economic and social terms has developed alongside this in both scope and complexity. The state-of-the-art in the economic appraisal of transport projects is reviewed, progress is assessed and future challenges are identified. The review addresses the general framework, treatment of major impacts, presentation of outputs and issues such as uncertainty. It draws on national practice in Western European countries, which varies substantially reflecting a range of cultural and economic differences. Some points of commonality exist and the principle of monetizing direct transport impacts is generally accepted. Progress has been made towards the measurement of environmental impacts, but the assessment of the wider impacts remains under-developed. Increased sophistication and complexity has brought increasing data and presentation requirements, where computerized decision support methods have potential. Many challenges exist for the future of appraisal and the review is concluded with a discussion of some key issues. At the heart of these is the continuing debate over the relative roles of national and European government in decision-making and resource allocation.     

Human Impacts on Cable Beach,Broome (Western Australia)

There are concerns that Cable Beach, which is of outstanding natural beauty and a major tourist attraction for Broome and the Kimberley region of northwest Australia, is suffering damage from recreational use, particularly that caused by off-road vehicles. To assess current levels of human impact on the shore and its fauna, the southern-most kilometer of the Beach, covering an area to which vehicles had access and an adjacent area closed to vehicles, was surveyed for human usage and shore crab abundance. Human usage over the recording period was high in the area with high vehicular access. The amount of litter, although considerable, was well below that recorded in some other tourist destinations elsewhere in the world. Burrows of both the ghost crabs Ocypode spp, and the sand bubbler, Scopimera inflata, were less numerous in areas of high vehicle use than those of low use. Both species may be valuable in monitoring human impacts on Cable Beach.