基于AFC系统的苏州市轨道交通网络化客流特征分析及启示

从运营轨道线网客流中找寻规律,可以有效指导城市科学合理地预测轨道交通客流。本文根据目前苏州市AFC系统运营数据积累,从网络、线路、车站三个层面探讨苏州市轨道交通客流特征,分析目前线网客流特征,为后续预测模型的参数选择提供参考和依据,并且针对轨道交通规划设计及运营提出相关工作建议。     

重庆市轨道交通网络化新形势下的地面常规公交转型发展对策研究

近年来,随着轨道交通的大规模建设和交通出行方式的多样化,给地面常规公交带来了前所未有的挑战和压力,常规公交客流呈现下降趋势已经成为普遍现象.本文主要以重庆为例,基于轨道交通网络化发展,探究在轨道网发展过程中常规公交面临的困境,提出在新常态下常规公交的发展定位和发展策略,构建"以轨道为骨干,常规公交为基础"的公共交通一体化网络,从而实现地面公交服务效率和品质的全面提升,使其最终实现成功转型发展.     

Market efficiency within dry bulk markets in the short run: a multi-agent system dynamics Nash equilibrium

In this paper, we assess the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in relation to dry bulk shipping in the short run. The aim is to explain why freight rates in the different ship segments are highly correlated. By building a system dynamics model, which is well-suited to modelling complex and stochastic processes with limited data availability, we attempt to track the arbitrage process in which the different ship types (Handy, Panamax and Capesize) literally seek to transport each others’ cargoes (substitution) when this is beneficial. Also, within one ship segment, we govern the arbitrage opportunities arising from regional differences in freight rates. Although the EMH is ever more contested in the maritime literature, holistic and analytical proof is provided that efficiency is maintained through the intrinsic arbitrage free and evolutionary behaviour in the system towards the Nash equilibrium.     

Real-Time Transportation Mode Detection Using Smartphones and Artificial Neural Networks: Performance Comparisons Between Smartphones and Conventional Global Positioning System Sensors

Traditionally, traffic monitoring requires data from traffic cameras, loop detectors, or probe vehicles that are usually operated by dedicated employees. In efforts to reduce the capital and operational costs associated with traffic monitoring, departments of transportation have explored the feasibility of using global positioning system (GPS) data loggers on their probe vehicles that are postprocessed for analyzing the traffic patterns on desired routes. Furthermore, most cell phones are equipped with embedded assisted-GPS (AGPS) chips, and if the mode of transportation the phone is in can be anonymously identified, the phones can be treated as if they are probe vehicles that are voluntarily hovering throughout the city, at minimal additional costs. Emerging cell phones known as “smartphones” are equipped with additional sensors including an accelerometer and magnetometer. The accelerometer can directly measure the acceleration values, as opposed to having acceleration values derived from speed values in conventional GPS sensors. The magnetometer can measure mode-specific electromagnetic levels. Smartphones are subscribed with roadside Internet data plans that can provide an essential platform for real-time traffic monitoring. In this article, neural network-based artificial intelligence is used to identify the mode of transportation by detecting the patterns of distinct physical profile of each mode that consists of speed, acceleration, number of satellites in view, and electromagnetic levels. Results show that newly available values in smartphones improve the mode detection rates when compared with using conventional GPS data loggers. When smartphones are in known orientations, they can provide three-dimensional (3-D) acceleration values that can further improve mode detection accuracies.     

Analysis of travel activity determinants using robust statistics

This study investigates travel behavior determinants based on a multiday travel survey conducted in the region of Ghent, Belgium. Due to the limited data reliability of the data sample and the influence of outliers exerted on classical principal component analysis, robust principal component analysis (ROBPCA) is employed in order to reveal the explanatory variables responsible for most of the variability. Interpretation of the results is eased by utilizing ROSPCA. The application of ROSPCA reveals six distinct principal components where each is determined by a few variables. Among others, our results suggest a key role of variable categories such as journey purpose-related impedance and journey inherent constraints. Surprisingly, the variables associated with journey timing turn out to be less important. Finally, our findings reveal the critical role of outliers in travel behavior analysis. This suggests that a systematic understanding of how outliers contribute to observed mobility behavior patterns, as derived from travel surveys, is needed. In this regard, the proposed methods serve for processing raw data typically used in activity-based modelling.     

绿色道路:路面可持续性评价系统

绿色道路是评价路面设计和施工过程相关的可持续性发展的一种建议标准。该系统依据可持续发展的实践性为道路工程打分,通过得分的高低来评价工程的可持续性。充分完善的绿色道路系统具有以下内容和功能:1)鼓励更多道路工程尝试可持续性的实践;2)为道路可持续性评价提供一种标准和方法;3)使工程设计更优;4)使业主单位能评判道路工程的优劣。绿色道路评价系统通过6大类的54个评分项完成对道路工程的评分,是发展道路可持续性设计的可靠系统。     

Construction of wave-free potentials and multipoles in a two-layer fluid having free-surface boundary condition with higher-order derivatives

There is a large class of problems in the field of fluid structure interaction where higher-order boundary conditions arise for a second-order partial differential equation. Various methods are being used to tackle these kind of mixed boundary-value problems associated with the Laplace’s equation (or Helmholtz equation) arising in the study of waves propagating through solids or fluids. One of the widely used methods in wave structure interaction is the multipole expansion method. This expansion involves a general combination of a regular wave, a wave source, a wave dipole and a regular wave-free part. The wave-free part can be further expanded in terms of wave-free multipoles which are termed as wave-free potentials. These are singular solutions of Laplace’s equation or two-dimensional Helmholz equation. Construction of these wave-free potentials and multipoles are presented here in a systematic manner for a number of situations such as two-dimensional non-oblique and oblique waves, three dimensional waves in two-layer fluid with free surface condition with higher order partial derivative are considered. In particular, these are obtained taking into account of the effect of the presence of surface tension at the free surface and also in the presence of an ice-cover modelled as a thin elastic plate. Also for limiting case, it can be shown that the multipoles and wave-free potential functions go over to the single layer multipoles and wave-free potential.     

An automated approach to passive sonar classification using binary image features

This paper proposes a new method for ship recognition and classification using sound produced and radiated underwater. To do so, a three-step procedure is proposed. First, the preprocessing operations are utilized to reduce noise effects and provide signal for feature extraction. Second, a binary image, made from frequency spectrum of signal segmentation, is formed to extract effective features. Third, a neural classifier is designed to classify the signals. Two approaches, the proposed method and the fractal-based method are compared and tested on real data. The comparative results indicated better recognition ability and more robust performance of the proposed method than the fractal-based method. Therefore, the proposed method could improve the recognition accuracy of underwater acoustic targets.     

Predictions of porpoising inception for planing vessels

The inception of porpoising is theoretically predicted for planing vessels. Two different approaches are presented. First, a linear stability analysis is applied to find the porpoising limits while the hydrodynamic coefficients, i.e. added mass and damping coefficients, are determined by either a simplified method or a numerical method. Another approach is to seek the porpoising limits by performing nonlinear time domain simulations. Either the simplified method or the numerical method is used in the simulations. In the numerical method, a 2D+t theory together with a boundary element method is employed. The trim angle limits for porpoising are determined by changing the longitudinal position of the centre of gravity (COG) of the vessel and keeping the forward speed constant. The predicted porpoising limits are compared with Day and Haag’s (Planing boat porpoising, Thesis, Webb Institute of Naval Architecture, 1952) experimental results. The influences of parameters such as the load coefficient, the vertical position of COG and the radius of gyration of the ship are investigated by varying those parameters in the linear stability analysis. In the nonlinear time-domain simulations, by trying different longitudinal position of COG, one can find the critical trim angle when the porpoising commences. The obtained trim limits agree generally with those predicted by the linear stability analysis. Bounded oscillations for the unstable cases near the critical trim angle can be seen in the time-domain simulations due to the nonlinear effects.     

Can rural older drivers meet their needs without a car? Stated adaptation responses from a GPS travel diary survey

Rural seniors are highly dependent on their automobile to meet their trip making needs, yet the effects of aging can make access to the vehicle difficult or impossible over time. The anticipated growth in the older person population, in concert with limited travel data available to support rural transportation planning in Canada suggests a disconnect between what rural older people may require for transportation and the availability of formal alternatives. Many will seek informal alternatives to driving, such as depending on friends and family, to meet their travel needs, but the degree is not well understood in the context of their actual vehicle usage and stated ability to adapt. This paper draws from a Global Positioning System (GPS)-based multi-day travel diary survey of a convenience sample of 60 rural older drivers (29 men, 31 women, average age of 69.6 years) from New Brunswick, Canada. Participants would rely on “friends and family” for 52% of all trips they undertook as driver in the survey, “walk or bike” for 14% of trips, and “not take the trip” in 34% of trips if they did not have access to a vehicle. The formal option of “Transit” was not selected as a viable alternative by any participant for any trip. “Medical trips”, “Shopping” and “Personal Errands” were the least discretionary of all trip types, yet the most difficult for participants to find alternate arrangements. This suggests the need to explore different models of service delivery, such as a community-supported, member-based rural shuttle service with volunteer and paid drivers that build on informal social networks and can provide service when friends and family are unavailable.