What determines university student’s willingness to pay for bikeways?

Transportation - Inadequate infrastructure is recognized as an important barrier to cycling; therefore, improvements in the provision of bicycle facilities, such as bikeways, are frequently...     

Road characteristics and environment factors associated with motorcycle fatal crashes in Malaysia

This study aims to determine risk factors contributing to traffic crashes in 9,176 fatal cases involving motorcycle in Malaysia between 2010 and 2012. For this purpose, both multinomial and mixed models of motorcycle fatal crash outcome based on the number of vehicle involved are estimated. The corresponding model predicts the probability of three fatal crash outcomes: motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crash, motorcycle fatal crash involving another vehicle and motorcycle fatal crash involving two or more vehicles. Several road characteristic and environmental factors are considered including type of road in the hierarchy, location, road geometry, posted speed limit, road marking type, lighting, time of day and weather conditions during the fatal crash. The estimation results suggest that curve road sections, no road marking, smooth, rut and corrugation of road surface and wee hours, i.e. between 00.00 am to 6 am, increase the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes. As for the motorcycle fatal crashes involving multiple vehicles, factors such as expressway, primary and secondary roads, speed limit more than 70 km/h, roads with non-permissible marking, i.e. double lane line and daylight condition are found to cause an increase the probability of their occurrence. The estimation results also suggest that time of day (between 7 pm to 12 pm) has an increasing impact on the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes and motorcycle fatal crashes involving two or more vehicles. Whilst the multinomial logit model was found as more parsimonious, the mixed logit model is likely to capture the unobserved heterogeneity in fatal motorcycle crashes based on the number of vehicles involved due to the underreporting data with two random effect parameters including 70 km/h speed limit and double lane line road marking.     

Hydrographic structure and zooplankton abundance and diversity off Paita, northern Peru (1994 to 2004) — ENSO effects, trends and changes

The objective of the present study was to verify possible spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual changes in the zooplankton off Paita (northern Peru), an upwelling area located closely to the limits of cold Humboldt Current and warm Equatorial Surface Waters. Zooplankton was sampled at subsurface on 53 occasions from August 1994 to December 2004 at four stations located 2 to 30 km offshore with a WP-2 net (300 µm). Extremely high surface water temperatures combined with low salinities were observed during the 1997/98 El Niño up to 29.0 °C) and in April 2002 (up to 25.0 °C). Temperatures more than 2 °C above monthly average were also observed in October 1994, in April 2000, and in November 2004. Significant trends were observed for oxygen concentration (increase) and several horizontal and vertical gradients. Among the copepods (72% of all individuals), the most abundant species were Paracalanus parvus (28%), Acartia tonsa (26%), and Calanus sp. (10%). The strong 1997–98 El Niño (EN) event led to drastic changes in species composition that were reversed during the 1998–99 La Niña (LN) event. Community parameters such as total abundance, diversity, equitability and species richness displayed marked variations associated with the 1997–98 EN and long-term trends. Long-term trends were significant for several vertical and horizontal temperature and oxygen gradients, indicating an increase in upwelling intensity at the shelf during the study period. 10-year-trends were also significant for total zooplankton abundance (increase) and community evenness (J, decline). Our data confirmed the importance of the weak EN in 2002/03 for the study region. Within the trend of increasing zooplankton abundance, a sharp step or shift was observed from 1999 to 2000. When using sequential t-tests to detect shifts in (x + 1) transformed abundance data, a significant rupture was found between the last sampling in 1999 and the first sampling in 2000. Also, a substantial decrease in diel variability occurred after 1999, probably due to changes in vertical migration patterns. The considerable increase in zooplankton abundance over the study period, the ENSO effect, and the 1999–2000 transition are discussed with regard to synchronicity with other zooplankton time series. The present study contributes with the first evidence from an important area located in the Humboldt Current for synchronous trends and changes that were previously observed elsewhere in the Pacific. Our results demonstrated the importance of long-term zooplankton monitoring studies in upwelling areas, and confirms the idea of dramatic changes in pelagic ecosystem structure occurring in the East Pacific.     

Collision risk assessment for ships

Efficient maritime navigation through dynamic obstructions at close range is still a serious issue faced by mariners. There have been studies focusing on collision risk assessment in the past, but the majority were based on the first person perspective, with area-based ship domain concepts that are defined around either the ownship or the obstacle. Such methods are acceptable for encounters where the ownship is required to manoeuvre according to the collision regulations (COLREGs), but they will not work correctly if the ownship is the stay-on party. This article presents an alternative method of assessing the collision risk for surface ships in close-range encounters that is compliant with the COLREGs as well as other ships from different perspectives.     

Influence of repeated and delayed excitations in combined subspace identification

The application of combined subspace identification methods to land vehicles would allow the modal parameters of the vehicle to be obtained, while it is in operation, thus improving the vehicle modal characterisation. However, when a land vehicle is circulating through a straight line, the excitations applied to the different axles are identical among them but with a certain time delay. The presence of repeated excitations with different time delays implies that the past and future subspaces include common vectors that may lead to problems in the application of the method. To analyse its influence, an index called the reduction coefficient resulting from excitations (RCE) has been defined. RCE evaluates the amount of information eliminated in the oblique projection due to the effect of repeated excitations. The use of RCE enables the selection of analysis parameters, particularly the sampling frequency, the signals grouping and some specific parameters of the subspace identification methods.     

Nonlinear gating control for urban road traffic network using the network fundamental diagram

This work proposes a nonlinear model predictive controller for the urban gating problem. The system model is formalized based on a research on existing models of the network fundamental diagram and the perimeter control systems. For the existing models, modifications are suggested: additional state variables are allocated to describe the queue dynamics at the network gates. Using the extended model, a nonlinear model predictive controller is designed offering a ‘non‐greedy’ policy compared with previous, ‘greedy’ gating control designs. The greedy and non‐greedy nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) controllers are compared with a greedy linear feedback proportional‐integral‐derivative (PID) controller in different traffic situations. The proposed non‐greedy NMPC controller outperforms the other two approaches in terms of travel distance performance and queue lengths. The performance results justify the consideration of queue lengths in dynamic modeling, and the use of NMPC approach for controller design. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A dynamic approach to road freight flows modeling in Spain

This paper presents an innovative approach to analyzing road vehicle freight traffic that uses a dynamic panel data specification derived from a gravity model. This dynamic approach, which has recently been employed in international goods trade models in lieu of the traditional static specification, is applied to the case of Spain using data for the countrys 15 NUTS-3 regions between 1999 and 2009. Using the system general method of moments approach, we obtained significant evidence that the flow of vehicles carrying commodities by road has a strong persistence effect when controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. We also found that the quality of road transport infrastructure has a significant impact on vehicle trips. According to our findings, we suggest that this type of specification be employed in distribution models in which fixed effects and lags of the dependent variable are included to account for unobserved heterogeneity and persistence effects, respectively.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Santiago Panel</Emphasis>: measuring the effects of implementing Transantiago

Although panels offer significant advantages over cross sectional data especially in terms of evaluating the effects of significant policy changes, there are precious few examples of panels built around an important change to an urban transport system. For this reason we took the opportunity of the introduction of Transantiago, a radically new public transport system for Santiago de Chile in February 2007, to form a panel, the first wave of which was taken in December 2006. The final objective was to use this Santiago Panel to estimate mode choice models considering both inertia and policy effects. This document describes both the design and construction of the panel, and presents some results based on an analysis of its four waves; for example, we registered a high percentage of mode change (55.1%) attributable to the introduction of the new system. The panel can claim the highest response rate (or lowest attrition) reported in the literature (95% in the second wave, 92% in the third one, and 85% in the forth one). This hints at the possibility of developing sophisticated models to evaluate the effects of a system shock in the presence of inertia in decision making.     

Optimal design and benefits of a short turning strategy for a bus corridor

We develop a short turning model using demand information from station to station within a single bus line-single period setting, aimed at increasing the service frequency on the more loaded sections to deal with spatial concentration of demand considering both operators’ and users’ costs. We find analytical expressions for optimal values of the design variables, namely frequencies (inside and outside the short cycle), capacity of vehicles and the position of the short turn limit stations. These expressions are used to analyze the influence of different parameters in the final solution. The design variables and the corresponding cost components for operators and users (waiting and in-vehicle times) are compared against an optimized normal operation scheme (single frequency). Applications on actual transit corridors exhibiting different demand profiles are conducted, calculating the optimal values for the design variables and the resulting benefits for each case. Results show the typical demand configurations that are better served using a short turn strategy.