A long panel survey to elicit variation in preferences and attitudes in the choice of electric vehicles

This paper describes the methodology we set up to gather appropriate data to study the impact of real life experience with electric vehicles (EVs) over a relatively long period of time on individual preferences and attitudes. We used stated choices (SC) to elicit individual preferences because EVs and their associated charging infrastructure are not yet fully integrated onto the market. Furthermore, to measure the extent to which the experience of using an EV may affect individual preferences and attitudes, we set up a “long panel” survey, where data was gathered before and after individuals experienced an EV in real life during a three-month period. We also measured attitudinal effects (AE) that might affect the choice of an EV by individuals. To our knowledge, this represents the first example of a “long panel” SC/AE and the first attempt to measure the formation of preferences and attitudes for this emerging product. Our results show that preferences and attitudes are indeed affected by real life experience. In the SC experiment, the respondents only chose the EV half as often as compared to the situation where they had not yet tried it. Furthermore, we measured a change in attitude for statements regarding the use of EVs. On the whole, respondents got a more positive view of the EV driving performance and this change is significantly greater for women than for men. However, respondents expressed more concern about being able to maintain current mobility with an EV. The data gathered in this survey should also serve to analyse the changes generated by direct experience with EVs, and eventually to formulate and estimate advanced discrete choice models that allow insights into factors relevant for improved understanding of market behaviour.     

Adapting interactive stated response techniques to a self-completion survey

We report here on how we adapted Interactive Stated Response Methods to use in a self-completion survey of 454 California households to measure the market for electric vehicles in California. Electric vehicles are a novel product and have many features unfamiliar to consumers, in particular their home recharging capability and limited range. Reflexive techniques were designed to draw households into a deeper exploration of the lifestyle implications of electric vehicles than can be done in more typical self-completion surveys, and to stimulate key decision processes previously observed in detailed gaming interviews with 51 households. Reflexive self-completion techniques provide a middle course between typical large sample quantitative surveys and small sample, detailed gaming interviews. One of the benefits of the more intensive techniques was that participants reported finding the surveys interesting and return rates were high for a self-completion approach – over sixty percent. We review previous transportation and sociological methods which inspired our design, describe the design goals and features of our research, and summarize research results pertinent to testing the validity of our approach.     

Information needs of the continuing urban transportation planning process

Urban transportation is identified as a functional element in the broader context of urban facilities and services. From this point of view, the relative merits of separate information systems for transportation planning and general urban planning, as contrasted to unified systems for all urban management functions, are discussed. The overriding need to make the most effective use of urban resources argues strongly for the unification of urban information systems to the greatest possible extent consistent with the special data requirements of various functional programs. The need to identify and correlate data items for very small areal units and to keep current records of the constantly shifting patterns of social and economic activities in urban areas present difficult, but not insurmountable technical problems. However, the most serious barrier to the development and implementation of comprehensive urban information systems is concluded to be institutional, rather than technical, in nature.     

Some errors in macroscopic traffic models based on car following models

The macroscopic traffic flow models developed from the car following models of Gazis et al. (1961) are shown to have a flaw in that they do not meet certain of the boundary conditions that researchers have said that they do. This does not affect many existing models but, nevertheless, should be cleared up.     

A study of passenger discomfort measures at the Hong Kong mass transit railway system

This note investigates the important attributes relating to the crowding effects at the Mass Transit Railway (MTR) stations in Hong Kong. Data was collected at two sets of three MTR stations to study the responses of the passengers due to the discomfort at crowded vehicles and platforms. Stated preference surveys were used to study the effects of passenger discomfort measures.     

The strategic transportation research study — Its origins and purposes

The highway industry in the United States spends about $35 to $40 billion annually. Management of the industry is almost wholly decentralized. This decentralization plus diminishing fuel tax revenues used to finance road improvements have caused road research efforts to decline to a very low level. Comparisons between funds for highway research and those spent by private firms in similar industries show that private firms spend from 5 to 12 times the rate of highway agencies. The problem of how much to spend on research is difficult both for private-sector and for public-sector enterprises. The level of research spending is shown to correlate well with both profitability and growth in U.S. firms. Four methods used for making research decisions in the private sector are discussed. The goals of the Strategic Transportation Research Study (STRS), which is being conducted by the Transportation Research Board to examine highway and transportation needs, are described.     

Demand for rail travel to and from airports

Rail access to airports is becoming increasingly important for both train operators and the airports themselves. This paper reports analysis of inter-urban rail demand to and from Manchester and Stansted Airports and the sensitivity of this market segment to growth in air traffic and the cost and service quality of rail services. The estimated demand parameters vary in an expected manner between outward and inward air travellers as well as between airport users and general rail travellers. These parameters can be entered into the demand forecasting framework widely used in the rail industry in Great Britain to provide an appropriate means of forecasting for this otherwise neglected market segment. The novel features of this research, at least in the British context, are that it provides the first detailed analysis of aggregate rail flows to and from airports, it has disaggregated the traditional generalised time measure of rail service quality in order to estimate separate elasticities to journey time, service headway and interchange, and it has successfully explored departures from the conventional constant elasticity position.     

A utility-theory travel demand model incorporating travel budgets

A model of traveler behavior is proposed which is consistent with the possibility that travelers expend average daily amounts of time and money on travel with stable regularities both among urban areas and over time in the same area. The model is founded on economic utility theory. It is designed to forecast: (1) the amount of total travel generated by types of households, (2) the division of travel among available modes, and (3) the relationship between the amounts of time and money allocated to travel expenditures. The qualitative properties of the model are shown to be consistent with economic principles. Specific theoretical results reveal that, in the simultaneous presence of constraints on both time and money, travel budgets are not strictly constant proportions of income and time available as they are in the cases of single constraints relevant to classes of travelers to whom time is scarce compared to money, or conversely. Constant expenditure proportions are shown to be linear approximations which are subject to empirical validation. The relevant economic principle is that expenditures can be considered fixed in the short run but become flexible in the long run when utility maximization is applied to the expenditures themselves and not just to their allocation. Empirical tests of the model using data from three urban areas are positive, but additional tests are called for. The most important output of the research is deemed to be the establishment of theoretical hypotheses which can be used in continuing tests of travel budgets.