Should we abandon activity type analysis? Redefining activities by their salient attributes

This paper poses a challenge and begins a search. The challenge is to reconsider the usefulness of traditional activity types (“work”, “shopping”, etc.) in the understanding and modelling of travel behaviour. The search is for the more salient attributes of activities that may serve to better explain complex travel behaviours—such as activity scheduling and tour formation. In particular, this paper focuses on explicit measures of the spatial, temporal and interpersonal flexibility of activities, along with several traditional attributes (frequency, duration, involved persons, travel time, and location). Data from a recent in-depth week-long activity scheduling survey was used to define and compare these attributes. Results show that considerable variability in the attributes between and within traditional activity groups is evident. This casts considerable uncertainty on assumptions that statically assign levels of spatial, temporal, and interpersonal flexibility to any given activity type. A Principal Components Analysis further revealed eight new distinct clusters of activities that share like attributes. The relative role of each attribute in each component is examined, and subjective interpretations emerged (e.g., “Long and frequent”, “Space and time flexible” “Social networking”). The implications of these results for future model development and research are discussed. Future research should continue to expand the search for salient attributes and link them more directly to decision processes.     

Dual extended Kalman filter for vehicle state and parameter estimation

The article demonstrates the implementation of a model-based vehicle estimator, which can be used for combined estimation of vehicle states and parameters. The estimator is realised using the dual extended Kalman filter (DEKF) technique, which makes use of two Kalman filters running in parallel, thus 'splitting' the state and parameter estimation problems. Note that the two problems cannot be entirely separated due to their inherent interdependencies. This technique provides several advantages, such as the possibility to switch off the parameter estimator, once a sufficiently good set of estimates has been obtained. The estimator is based on a four-wheel vehicle model with four degrees of freedom, which accommodates the dominant modes only, and is designed to make use of several interchangeable tyre models. The paper demonstrates the appropriateness of the DEKF. Results to date indicate that this is an effective approach, which is considered to be of potential benefit to the automotive industry.     

Port managment development—a strategy for the provision of a training capability in developing countries

The absence of formal career-development programmes and the apparent low priority given to the development of human resources in the ports of developing countries has led to a severe shortage of suitably qualified and experienced managers. At the centre of this problem lies the formidable barriers to the establishment of a local training capability to meet the diverse and often specialized needs of this industry. This paper examines the nature and scale of the management-training requirements of the ports of developing countries. Further, it briefly describes the background to UNCTAD's role in the field of management training and outlines the objectives of its training strategy for the 1980s. An important component of this strategy is the 'Improving port performance project which is designed to prepare structured learning materials using audio-visual techniques and is proposed as one solution to establishing a local training capability in developing countries.     

Conformity: How VMT-speed distributions can affect mobile emission inventories

Transportation conformity is a US regulatory process that requires that transportation modeling be integrated with air quality modeling. Consequently, every change to either modeling process is undertaken with great scrutiny by the regional governments, who have to use the models for demonstrating conformity. This paper explores the "trip versus link debate," which stems from the fact that the standard travel demand models used by most metropolitan planning organizations are primarily link oriented, while the air quality models have been primarily trip oriented. Using the Sacramento region we examine the effects on mobile source emissions inventories when speed-VMT distributions are constructed using the trip and link-based philosophies. The results of our study indicate that trip-based VMT-speed distributions produce consistently lower emissions estimates than the link-based distributions. We use the results to assert that deciding between a trip-based or link-based conformity modeling process involves more than the technical difficulty of changesto the models or the potential political ramifications, it involves assessing which method will provide the most accurate estimates of regional motor vehicle emissions. We also examine ways to think about constructing mobile source emission inventories.     

Roll Dynamics of Commercial Vehicles

An analytical model is developed here for studying the roll dynamics of commercial vehicles. Large displacements and rotations are accounted for in this nonlinear model so that it can be used for the study of roll dynamics well beyond the limits of wheel lift-off. The model is used to illustrate some of the dynamic phenomena in vehicle rollover, especially the interactive coupling between the roll and the vertical modes of motion. The influence of suspension backlash on rollover resistance is demonstrated, and the phenomenon of roll motion resonance is illustrated to suggest new means for evaluating vehicle rollover sensitivity.     

The dynamic relationships between paper petroleum refining and physical trade of crude oil into the United States

This article examines the relationship between refinery margins traded on paper using petroleum futures (the paper refinery) and the physical trade of crude oil into the US. Computations of a 3:2:1 crack spread were constructed using daily observations of second- and third-nearby unleaded gasoline and heating oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NY MEX) and spot Brent crude oil prices. The crack spread represents the margin between the cost of crude oil feed stock today and the value of the products produced by a refinery in the future. Unit root tests on each of the time series found crack spreads to be stationary while crude oil imports were found to be non-stationary. A s the two series were found to be integrated of different order, cointegration analysis of the two series was not deemed appropriate. Instead, linear relationships between crack spreads and imports were examined using causality tests. It was found that the 2-month 3:2:1 crack spread Granger-causes crude oil imports and that this causality is unidirectional. The significance of these findings lies in the fact that other industries like tanker shipping derive their demand from the demand for, and trade in, petroleum. Crack spreads, therefore, can provide a leading indicator for short term developments in tanker demand. For a chartering manager who has ships on the spot market, crack spreads can help him/her anticipate demand developments and influence vessel deployment and chartering decisions.     

Economic Valuation of Coastal and Marine Resources: Bohol Marine Triangle,Philippines

This article provides results on the net benefits generated from the natural resources in the Bohol Marine Triangle (BMT) in the Philippines. The BMT spans over 112,000 ha and its coastal ecosystems are rich in biodiversity and provide economic opportunities to the coastal communities. With a 10% discount rate, the accumulated total net benefits for the BMT resources over a 10-year period is US$11.54 million. Tourism and the municipal fisheries are the most important direct use values of the coastal and marine resources of the BMT accounting for 44% and 39% of the total net benefits. Annual revenues attributed to ecosystems were as follows: coral reefs, US$1.26 million; beach/intertidal area, US$1.12 million; marine waters, US$646,501; mangrove, US$239,561; and seagrass, US$105,990. The large market values indicate the dependence of the local community on the BMT coastal and marine resources. In the same way, non-market values show the important life-support functions of coastal and marine ecosystems. The net benefits reflect the magnitude of potential losses due to improper management of coastal and marine resources in the BMT. This valuation highlights the importance of the coastal services to the BMT economy and draws attention to the benefits the local stakeholders derive from BMT coastal resources. Policy measures can now take into account these values to justify a sufficient investment in coastal management efforts to sustain the flow of coastal services in the interest of current and future generations.     

CZARA of 1990: A Critical Time for Coastal Management

To appreciate the present, sometimes you need to reflect on the past and wonder “what if?” This is one of those times. In recognition of the 40th anniversary of the Coastal Zone Management Act and acknowledgment of the dedication of the program's practitioners, it is important to note that the successful implementation of the Nation's primary coastal law has depended, and will continue to depend, on its legitimacy and institutionalization in the political culture of the country. Today, the national coastal management program, while underfunded and, in recent years, subject to wavering political support, has nevertheless reached a certain level of stability to safeguard the country's coastal resources. It is fitting, therefore, in this special issue of Coastal Management to recall a time when the future of the CZMA was in serious doubt.     

Computer Simulation of Thermal-Mechanical Processing

AlterationIntroductionThereisastrongini6ractionamongtemPetalrefield,strCssfield,andmicrosttuctutulaltOrationinm8terialsduringtheirhotworking[l'2].Especiallyduringthecoolingprocess,inwhichtemPeratorechangnsgreatly,intendionsbecomemorecomplexbecauseoftransformationoccurmnce.Duringthehotdeformation,thingswillaPpearsuchas:a.hotdeformation,relatedtostressfieId,changesessentiallytheshaPeofmaterialsandcausesthevariationofthecontactstatebetWeenthedieandsample,resultinginchangeofthethermalboundnyco…