U.S. import/export container flow modeling and disruption analysis

International containerized freight movement is a vital part of the supply chain for many companies, and a critical element of moving consumer goods to points of retail sale within the U.S. Containerized imports also present a clear security concern (e.g., terrorists attempting to ship “dirty bombs,” chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons, into the U.S. in a shipping container). The goal of the research presented here is to create a modeling tool for analyzing flows of U.S. imports and exports of containerized freight, and the potential changes in those flows under a variety of conditions (e.g., port disruptions, extensive security-related delays, etc.). Our focus is on movements through maritime container ports, and not overland movements between the U.S. and Canada or Mexico.The network model, referred to as the System for Import/Export Routing and Recovery Analysis (SIERRA), represents container movements between the U.S. and 46 other countries that account for the vast majority of U.S. imports and exports. The SIERRA model is a network equilibrium model that predicts flows between foreign countries and North American ports, the total volumes handled (import and export) by each port, the modal volumes (truck and rail) moving domestically into and out of each port, and volumes between each port and a set of transportation analysis zones within the U.S.     

水面舰艇基本通信能力的效能评估

水面舰艇的基本通信能力是舰艇通信系统效能的重要方面,根据通信设备的工作特性,对舰艇的基本通信能力按业务类型分类,并运用层次分析法的思想构建了指标体系,对水面舰艇的基本通信能力进行效能评估.结果证明了该方法的可行性,此方法也可为下一步系统通信效能分析提供参考.     

Correcting for endogeneity in behavioral choice models with social influence variables

While psychologists and behavioral economists emphasize the importance of social influences, an outstanding issue is how to capture such influences in behavioral models used to inform urban planning and policy. In this paper we focus on operational models that do not require explicit knowledge of the individual networks of decision makers. We employ a field effect variable to capture social influences, which is calculated as the percent of population in the peer group that has chosen the specific alternative. We define the peer group based on socio-economic status and spatial proximity of residential location. As in behavioral economics and psychology, the concept is that one is influenced by the choices made by one’s peers. However, using such a social influence variable in a behavioral model causes complications because it is likely endogenous; unobserved factors that impact the peer group also influence the decision maker, yielding correlation between the field effect variable and the error. The contribution of this paper is the use of the Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (BLP) method to correct the endogeneity in a choice model. The two-stage BLP introduces constants for each peer group to remove the endogeneity from the choice model (where it is difficult to deal with) and insert it into a linear regression model (where endogeneity is relatively easier to deal with). We test the method using a mode choice data set from the Netherlands and readily available software and find there is an upward bias of the field effect parameter when endogeneity is not corrected. The procedure outlined presents a practical and tractable method for incorporating social influences in choice models.     

层间水对水下双层结构撞击历程的影响分析

双层壳体结构是潜艇等大型水下结构的重要结构形式,潜艇结构的水下碰撞是潜艇的主要事故形式,然而,针对双层壳体的潜艇结构水下碰撞问题的研究工作目前却极为有限.文中首先提出潜艇碰撞问题,并对其碰撞特征进行分析,然后针对潜艇水下碰撞环境下,层间水对碰撞历程的影响和双层结构的碰撞特点进行了理论分析,在数值仿真计算的基础上,着重讨论了双层板结构在碰撞过程中,层间水对撞击速度、碰撞力以及双层板吸能特性的影响,分析结果显示,层间水对双层壳板撞击历程的影响主要体现在两方面:一是接触初始阶段,耐压壳板将由于层间水的存在,与非耐压壳板组成抗冲击弹簧体系参与抗冲击作用,吸收冲击能量,这对于双层壳板的防撞性能是有利的;二是非耐压壳板穿透后,层间水的影响主要体现为水对耐压壳板的粘附作用,耐压壳板的抗撞能力显著下降.     

平台支撑的潜艇内部平面舱壁极限强度的模型试验研究

为了研究平台支撑的潜艇内部平面舱壁极限强度,根据实艇舱壁结构,按1∶2的缩尺比设计制作了一个舱壁模型,采用内压试验方法进行了模型极限承载能力的试验.利用国际通用的大型非线性有限元分析软件MSC/MARC,对舱壁模型进行了几何/材料的双重非线性的有限元分析,试验值与有限元分析计算值吻合良好.通过对模型试验结果的分析,得出了一些对指导潜艇平面舱壁结构设计有实用价值的结论.     

海上沉船碍航概率风险评估

为对我国沿海水域沉船进行科学的风险评估及处置决策,确保通航船舶水上安全和畅通,基于事件树方法分析了通航船舶碰撞沉船事故的发生过程和机理,建立了沉船碍航概率风险评估模型.假定通航船舶在航路中的航迹线服从正态分布,根据沉船位置确定了通航船舶驶入碰撞航路的几何概率.根据国内外事故资料确定通航船舶发生异常而避碰失败的基准偏航概率,并考虑了风、流、能见度和交通密度等因素进行修正.通过对实际沉船碍航特性的评估,验证了该方法对沉船管理和处置决策具有实用性和可操作性.     

PID plus fuzzy logic method for torque control in traction control system

A Traction Control System (TCS) is used to control the driving force of an engine to prevent excessive slip when a vehicle starts suddenly or accelerates. The torque control strategy determines the driving performance of the vehicle under various drive-slip conditions. This paper presents a new torque control method for various drive-slip conditions involving abrupt changes in the road friction. This method is based on a PID plus fuzzy logic controller for driving torque regulation, which consists of a PID controller and a fuzzy logic controller. The PID controller is the fundamental component that calculates the elementary torque for traction control. In addition, the fuzzy logic controller is the compensating component that compensates for the abrupt change in the road friction. The simulation results and the experimental vehicle tests have validated that the proposed controller is effective and robust. Compared with conventional PID controllers, the driving performance under the proposed controller is greatly improved.     

Optimization of intake port design for SI engine

It is well known that in-cylinder flow is very important factor for the performance of SI engine. An appropriate in-cylinder flow pattern can enhance the turbulence intensity at spark time, therefore increasing the stability of combustion, reducing emission and improving fuel economy. In this paper, the effect of intake port design on in-cylinder flow is studied. It is found a vortex existed at the upper side of intake port of a production SI engine used in the study, during the intake stroke, which will reduce both tumble ratio and volumetric efficiency. A minor modification on intake port is made to eliminate the vortex and increase tumble ratio while keeping volumetric efficiency at the same level. It is demonstrated that the increase in tumble in the new design results in a 20 per cent increase in the fuel vaporization. In this study, both KIVA and STAR-CD are used to simulate the engine cold flow, as well as ICEM CFD and es-ice used as pre-processor respectively due to the complexity of engine geometry. Simulation results from KIVA and STAR-CD are compared and analyzed.     

SCR control strategy based on ANNs and Fuzzy PID in a heavy-duty diesel engine

The paper presents an innovative method combining artificial neural networks (ANNs) with Fuzzy PID to demonstrate the advantages of this control approach for meeting both NOx emission requirements and NH3 slip targets. An ANN model was utilized to simulate the formation of NOx emissions under various engine operating conditions. Next, an effective closed-loop control strategy with a type of feedback known as fuzzy PID is adopted for on-line, real-time control of 32.5% aqueous urea dosing in the exhaust stream. The new strategy explores the benefits by simulation and testing in the environments of Matlab/Simulink and ESC/ETC, respectively. The notable achievement of considerable NOx reduction and an acceptably small NH3 slip is obtained based on this new, feasible and effective strategy.     

双层圆柱壳典型基座振动波传递特性优化分析

采用波动分析法,根据不均质结构中的阻抗特性和波型转换,分析振动噪声在典型双层壳结构中的传递特性。以此为切入点,采用有限元/边界元(FEM/BEM)耦合法分析人为构造的传递损失基座的减振降噪性能。通过对组合板振动波的传递特性的分析可以得出,当定常结构发生突变时,结构阻抗也会随之发生变化,导致结构之间的阻抗失配,从而使得振动波在突变截面处发生反射和透射,降低振动波的传递效率,阻隔振动波能量向下游结构传递。然后,据此理论设计了传递损失基座,并用有限元/边界元耦合法验证了传递损失基座的减振降噪性能。