Cross-sector Analysis of Four Renegotiated Transport PPPs in Portugal

Abstract

This paper uses the Fertagus renegotiation results as a reference and explores the features that made it such a widely commended case, aiming to identify the best practice to be followed in other cases. The two main questions that this paper aimed to respond were: Was the success of the renegotiation process in the Fertagus contract due to mode-specific factors? Are those factors (mode specific or not) transferable to other modes under public private partnership (PPP) contracts and if so, to what extent? Regarding the mode specificity and transferability analysis, it can be noticed that much of the features were not mode specific in theory, however for the successful transferability to other transport modes, some changes should be made to the PPP model taking into account modal specificities and national contexts.     

Integrating short turning and deadheading in the optimization of transit services

Urban transit demand exhibits peaks in time and space, which can be efficiently served by means of different fleets, increasing frequencies in those groups of stops with larger passenger inflow. In this paper we develop a model that combines short turning and deadheading in an integrated strategy for a single transit line, where the optimization variables are both of a continuous and discrete nature: frequencies within and outside the high demand zone, vehicle capacities, and those stations where the strategy begins and ends. We show that closed solutions can be obtained for frequencies in some cases, which resembles the classical “square root rule”. Unlike the existing literature that compares different strategies with a given normal operation (no strategy - single frequency), we use an optimized base case, in order to assess the potential benefits of the integrated strategy on a fair basis. We found that the integrated strategy can be justified in many cases with mixed load patterns, where unbalances within and between directions are observed. In general, the short turning strategy may yield large benefits in terms of total cost reductions, while low benefits are associated with deadheading, due to the extra cost of running empty vehicles in some sections.     

Heterogeneous traffic flow modelling for an arterial using grid based approach

A grid based modelling approach akin to cellular automata (CA) is adopted for heterogeneous traffic flow simulation. The road space is divided into a grid of equally sized cells. Moreover, each vehicle type occupies one or more cell as per its size unlike CA traffic flow model where each vehicle is represented by a single cell. Model needs inputs such as vehicle size, its maximum speed, acceleration, deceleration, probability constants, and arrival pattern. The position and speed of the vehicles are assumed to be discrete. The speed of each vehicle changes according to its interactions with other vehicles, following some stochastic rules depending on the circumstances. The model is calibrated and validated using real data and VISSIM. The results indicate that grid based model can reasonably well simulate complex heterogeneous traffic as well as offers higher computational efficiency needed for real time application.     

The VOCO multi-body software in the context of real-time simulation

The railway multi-body software developed for more than 20 years by INRETS (now IFSTTAR), under the name VOCO^®, has been dedicated from the origin to highly nonlinear elements, such as the dry friction dampers of freight bogies and the wheel–rail contact based on measured profiles. A second important step has been the discovery of a particular method in order to simulate on sinuous tracks. In the aim of industrial applications, the specification has always been to reach the goal of real time. Although it is not possible in all the cases, the recent non-Hertzian contact development is allowing real-time simulation to be achieved.     

轨枕间距对钢轨波磨的影响

主要研究轨枕间距对钢轨波磨发展的影响。研究小半径曲线内轨的小矢跨比波磨。这些出现问题的曲线段属于西班牙毕尔巴鄂区域的地铁轨道,铺设着混凝土道床和两层STEDEF型支承垫层。当初始轨枕间距为1000mm时,仅有92万组轮对通过后所测得的波磨深度峰-峰值已经达到0.42mm。随后更换产生波磨的钢轨,比较列车通过时轨枕上方和轨间中部的内轨垂向、横向加速度。当轨枕间距为1000mm时,轨间中部出现频率为204和244Hz的强烈响应,在轨枕上方却未出现。在相邻轨枕中间铺设一个轨枕,使轨枕间距变为500mm,钢轨波磨停止发展。该结论是根据2年的观测结果得到的。     

Recovery of North-East Atlantic temperature fields from profiling floats: Determination of the optimal float number from sampling and instrumental error analysis

Argo is an international project that is deploying an array of temperature and salinity profiling floats over the global ocean. Here we use the error formulation derived from Optimal Statistical Interpolation to estimate statistical errors associated with the recovery of the temperature field in the North-East Atlantic ocean. Results indicate that with the present distribution of floats (119 in the considered domain), scales of wavelength larger than 500 km can be recovered with a relative uncertainty (rms error relative to the standard deviation of the field) of about 7% at 50 m, 8% at 200 m and 10% at 1000 m. This corresponds to mean absolute errors of 0.111 °C at 50 m, 0.104 °C at 200 m and 0.073 °C at 1000 m.The splitting of total errors into instrumental and sampling contributions reveals that, in the present scenario, errors are more due to the small number of floats than to instrumental errors, especially at upper levels. For scales larger than 500 km this will hold true until 200–250 floats are deployed (less than 200 for deep levels). In such a simulated scenario, the number of observations and the technology become approximately equally limiting factors for the accuracy of the temperature field mapping, with total relative errors of less than 2% at upper levels and about 3% at 1000 m.     

Gravity model estimation with proxy variables and the impact of endogeneity on transportation planning

This study presents an alternative method for estimating gravity models by multiple linear regression that is based on proxy variables, thus circumventing the endogeneity problems arising when least-squares estimators are used. The proxy variable approach generates consistent estimators for a gravity model without endogeneity bias. The presence of endogeneity is tested for using statistical tests developed specifically for our application.We conclude that proxy variables eliminate the endogeneity and produce consistent estimators in gravity models estimated using least squares. We also find, however, that endogeneity bias has no significant impact either on gravity model prediction or on urban transportation system planning processes based on such models.     

Paleoclimatic evolution of the Galician continental shelf (NW of Spain) during the last 3000 years: from a storm regime to present conditions

A multiproxy study of the sedimentary record carried out on gravity core CGPL00-1 retrieved from the outer Galician continental shelf (NW of Spain) has allowed us to establish the main climate fluctuations affecting the region during the Upper Holocene. Grain size, TOC, C/N ratio, biogenic opal and planktonic foraminifera are the main analysed parameters. Lithology and grain size distribution lead to identify two sedimentary sequences: a lower half mainly composed by glauconitic sand and a muddy upper half. A chronology has been established based on three AMS radiocarbon ages, 907 cal. BC, 898 cal. BC and 1399 AD, and the aforementioned sedimentary sequences. The obtained radiocarbon ages are the first dated sediment samples for the Galician continental shelf. Geochemical markers show different trends in both sequences: low and/or fluctuating values in the sandy sequence and high and relatively constant values in the upper muddy sequence. The whole sandy interval is interpreted to be a nearly instantaneous deposit from a distal storm ebb current. The muddy interval was deposited in a stable and low-energy marine environment, similar to that found on the present outer shelf. The shift from a storm-dominated shelf to a low-energy environment took place synchronous with the Subboreal/Subatlantic transition, when an increase in storminess appears related to climatic instability. Transitional planktonic foraminiferal assemblage dominates the whole record, although a change to more abundant cold water species at 1420 AD, may relate to an intense upwelling pulse, probably reinforced by colder atmospheric temperatures during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Despite the presence of an upwelling regime since 1420 AD, lesser amount of opal has accumulated in the outer shelf due to enhanced offshore transport and stronger remineralization.     

Travelers’ compliance with social routing advice: evidence from SP and RP experiments

Transportation - This study examines to what extent travel information can be used to direct travelers to system-optimal routes that may be sub-optimal for them personally, but contribute to...