Optimal resource allocation among transit agencies for fleet management

Most transit agencies require government support for the replacement of their aging fleet. A procedure for equitable resource allocation among competing transit agencies for the purpose of transit fleet management is presented in this study. The proposed procedure is a 3-dimensional model that includes the choice of a fleet improvement program, agencies that may receive them, and the timing of investments. Earlier efforts to solve this problem involved the application of 1- or 2-dimensional models for each year of the planning period. These may have resulted in suboptimal solution as the models are blind to the impact of the fleet management program of the subsequent years. Therefore, a new model to address a long-term planning horizon is proposed. The model is formulated as a non-linear optimization problem of maximizing the total weighted average remaining life of the fleet subjected to improvement program and budgetary constraints. Two variants of the problem, one with an annual budget constraint and the other with a single budget constraint for the entire planning period, are formulated. Two independent approaches, namely, branch and bound algorithm and genetic algorithm are used to obtain the solution. An example problem is solved and results are discussed in details. Finally, the model is applied to a large scale real-world problem and a detailed analysis of the results is presented.     

The external cost of speed at sea: An analysis based on selected short sea shipping routes

According to the mid-term review of the EU White Paper on Transport, Short Sea Shipping (SSS) is expected to grow at a rate of 59% (metric tonnes) between 2000 and 2020. If we consider that the overall expected increase in both freight exchanges and volume is 50%, sea transport is one of the most feasible alternatives to reduce traffic congestion on European roads. Maritime transportation may compete with road transport as far as certain traffics are concerned, but only when assuming external costs. This paper analyzes several intermodal transport chains involving a sea leg by comparing the effect of pollutant emissions from different ship types and road transport in terms of potential external cost savings. The translation of these emissions into environmental costs shows, for certain conditions, savings in the case of sea transport that would justify the use of an environmental bonus to promote the sea option.     

Mesoscale subduction at the Almeria–Oran front: Part 1: Ageostrophic flow

This paper presents a detailed diagnostic analysis of hydrographic and current meter data from three, rapidly repeated, fine-scale surveys of the Almeria–Oran front. Instability of the frontal boundary, between surface waters of Atlantic and Mediterranean origin, is shown to provide a mechanism for significant heat transfer from the surface layers to the deep ocean in winter. The data were collected during the second observational phase of the EU funded OMEGA project on RRS Discovery cruise 224 during December 1996. High resolution hydrographic measurements using the towed undulating CTD vehicle, SeaSoar, traced the subduction of Mediterranean Surface Water across the Almeria–Oran front. This subduction is shown to result from a significant baroclinic component to the instability of the frontal jet. The Q-vector formulation of the omega equation is combined with a scale analysis to quantitatively diagnose vertical transport resulting from mesoscale ageostrophic circulation. The analyses are presented and discussed in the presence of satellite and airborne remotely sensed data; which provide the basis for a thorough and novel approach to the determination of observational error.     

CO2 air–sea disequilibrium and preformed alkalinity in the Pacific and Indian oceans calculated from subsurface layer data

This work estimates new regionalized empirical parameterizations for preformed alkalinity (A_T^o) and the CO₂ air–sea disequilibrium (?C_dis). Both are key terms for the computation of anthropogenic CO₂ in the back-calculation methods. Data from the subsurface layer (75–180 m depth range) covering an area from North to South and from 19°E to 67.5°W (Pacific and Indian oceans) were taken from GLODAP (The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project) database. The subsurface layer is proved as a reliable reference for representing the main characteristics of the different water masses of the oceans. Besides, handing data from the two ocean basins altogether makes the new parameterizations of A_T^o and ?C_dis to be more globally consistent. Nevertheless, each ocean basin, at least in some regions, has different oceanographic characteristics based on its proper dynamical processes and water masses formation. In order to maintain each ocean basin ‘identity’ the whole domain was divided in six different regions (two of them sharing waters from Pacific and Indian oceans) and parameterizations in each region for both terms were obtained. Previously, data were transformed into a grid of 4°lat. × 5°lon. and the results obtained from the parameterizations were visualized and compare with pCO₂ climatologies. From the comparisons with previous ?C_dis estimations good results are obtained showing the reliability and robustness of the new regionalized empiric parameterizations.     

Connected cruise control: modelling,delay effects,and nonlinear behaviour

Connected vehicle systems (CVS) are considered in this paper where vehicles exchange information using wireless vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication. The concept of connected cruise control (CCC) is established that allows control design at the level of individual vehicles while exploiting V2V connectivity. Due to its high level of modularity the proposed design can be applied to large heterogeneous traffic systems. The dynamics of a simple CVS is analysed in detail while taking into account nonlinearities in the vehicle dynamics as well as in the controller. Time delays that arise due to intermittencies and packet drops in the communication channels are also incorporated. The results are summarised using stability charts which allow one to select control gains to maintain stability and ensure disturbance attenuation when the delay is below a critical value.     

A probabilistic damage tolerance concept for welded joints Part 2: a supplement to the rule based S–N approach

The first part of this paper presented the required statistics and stochastic models for reliability analysis of the fatigue fracture of welded plate joints. This present Part 2 suggests a probabilistic damage tolerance supplement to the design S–N curves for welded joints. The goal is to provide the practising engineer with simple tools that predict the reliability against fatigue fracture during service life. The impact of the chosen fatigue design factors (FDF) and the uncertainty in the applied stresses is revealed. The effect of an in-service inspection programme is also predicted. The results are presented as dimensionless matrices and suggested for use in support of decision-making at the design stage, without any advanced fracture mechanics modelling and stochastic simulation. One important advantage of this format is that the probability levels are presented regardless of actual weld class and target service life (TSL). This is obtained by introducing the FDF as a key parameter to the results. This parameter is defined as the ratio of predicted fatigue life over TSL. FDF is always calculated in the S–N approach which is mandatory in fatigue life prediction. Various welded details (classes) will have the same reliability level for the same FDF. This is true at the end of TSL and at earlier stages, i.e. fractions of TSL. The absolute value of TSL is immaterial for a given FDF. In the case of in-service inspection, the inspection interval is also given without dimensions as a fraction of TSL.

Only the influence of future scheduled inspections is treated. Updating based on actual inspection results is not included as the scope of work is inspection planning at the design stage. Results for some frequent cases occurring in practice are readily derived and presented.     

Quantitative estimation of the influence of surface thermal fronts over chlorophyll concentration at the Patagonian shelf

Eighteen-year (1985–2002) mean monthly SST Pathfinder data with 9 km spatial resolution have been used to estimate surface gradients by finite differences. Then the seasonal climatological means have been calculated from the intensity of these gradients, and surface thermal fronts present in the Patagonian Continental Shelf (PCS) have been located. Moreover, 6 years (1998–2003) of SeaWiFS data with approximately 4 km spatial resolution have been used to estimate monthly composite images of surface chlorophyll concentration, after which seasonal climatological means distributions have been generated. Both seasonal distributions have been analyzed together and by combining the knowledge of oceanographic processes and phytoplankton responses to light and nutrient availability, regions where the presence of a thermal front affects photosynthetic activity have been identified. Subjective criteria have been applied to define eighteen areas where phytoplankton biomass is influenced by the presence of a thermal front. In these areas, the surface chlorophyll (spatial mean and total), its relationship with the surface chlorophyll of the whole region, and the seasonal evolution of this relationship have been calculated. All frontal areas cover less than 15% of the total surface, but they contribute with over 23% of the phytoplankton annual mean biomass. Considered as a group, during summer they show high chlorophyll values very similar to those in spring. During the cold period, when the water column is vertically mixed in practically the whole of PCS, the influence of physical fronts over the biological production is minimum. The frontal zone image remains clearly defined during summer, when approximately 85% of the area will have a determined mean chlorophyll concentration, while the other 15% has a 2.45 times larger value. While three pattern trends have been identified in the frontal areas, only two of them condition the pattern of the group, due to their horizontal extension.     

Road pricing — should and might it happen?

This article discusses recent attempts to implement a federally sponsored road pricing demonstration in the United States. It examines reasons for the attempts, pointing to several enduring traffic related problems; the greater effectiveness and flexibility of road pricing compared to other measures; and the proven feasibility of area licenses as in Singapore. The generally negative reaction of city decision-makers to road pricing is specified, particularly concerns about harm to businesses, interference with the right to travel and discrimination against the poor. Some lessons for further attempts at implementation of road pricing include more attention to contingency planning for worst possible outcomes; the design of parking permit programs which might lead the way to road pricing; and the selection of recreational rather than downtown sites for first attempts at innovative parking permit and road pricing schemes.     

Modeling household interactions in daily in-home and out-of-home maintenance activity participation

The activity travel patterns of individuals in a household are inter-related, and the realistic modeling of activity-travel behavior requires that these interdependencies be explicitly accommodated. This paper examines household interactions impacting weekday in-home and out-of-home maintenance activity generation in active, nuclear family, households. The in-home maintenance activity generation is modeled by examining the duration invested by the male and female household heads in household chores using a seemingly unrelated regression modeling system. The out-of-home maintenance activity generation is modeled in terms of the decision of the household to undertake shopping, allocation of the task to one or both household heads, and the duration of shopping for the person(s) allocated the responsibility. A joint mixed-logit hazard-duration model structure is developed and applied to the modeling of out-of-home maintenance activity generation. The results indicate that traditional gender roles continue to exist and, in particular, non-working women are more likely to share a large burden of the household maintenance tasks. The model for out-of-home maintenance activity generation indicates that joint activity participation in the case of shopping is motivated by resource (automobiles) constraints. Finally, women who have a higher propensity to shop are also found to be inherently more efficient shoppers.     

Motorcycle fatalities in Malaysia

Malaysia has the highest road fatality risk (per 100,000 population) among the ASEAN countries and more than 50% of the road accident fatalities involve motorcyclists. This study has collected and analysed data from the police, government authorities, and national and international research institutes. Only fatality data are used due to the severe underreporting of severe injuries (up to 600%) and slight injuries (up to 1400%). The analysis reveals that the highest numbers of motorcycle fatalities occur in rural locations (61%), on primary roads (62%) and on straight road sections (66%). The majority are riders (89%), 16 to 20 years old (22.5%), and 90% of the motorcycles are privately owned. Of those involved in fatal accidents, 75% of the motorcyclists wear helmets, and 35% do not have proper licences. The highest number of fatalities by type of collision is ‘angular or side’ (27.5%). Although fatal motorcyclist crashes mostly involve ‘passenger cars’ (28%), motorcyclists are responsible for 50% of the collisions either by crashing singly (25%) or with other motorcyclists (25%). While male motorcyclists predominate (94% of fatalities), female motorcyclists aged 31 to 70, possessing ‘no licence’, not wearing helmets and travelling during the day, account for a higher percentage than male motorcyclists. Malaysia must acquire more motorcycle exposure data and establish an injury recording system and database based on hospital-records. To reduce motorcycle fatalities, it first has to understand why young male motorcyclists are prone to fatal crashes in the evenings and on weekends on rural primary roads, especially on straight road sections.