What determines university student’s willingness to pay for bikeways?

Transportation - Inadequate infrastructure is recognized as an important barrier to cycling; therefore, improvements in the provision of bicycle facilities, such as bikeways, are frequently...     

Hydrographic structure and zooplankton abundance and diversity off Paita, northern Peru (1994 to 2004) — ENSO effects, trends and changes

The objective of the present study was to verify possible spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual changes in the zooplankton off Paita (northern Peru), an upwelling area located closely to the limits of cold Humboldt Current and warm Equatorial Surface Waters. Zooplankton was sampled at subsurface on 53 occasions from August 1994 to December 2004 at four stations located 2 to 30 km offshore with a WP-2 net (300 µm). Extremely high surface water temperatures combined with low salinities were observed during the 1997/98 El Niño up to 29.0 °C) and in April 2002 (up to 25.0 °C). Temperatures more than 2 °C above monthly average were also observed in October 1994, in April 2000, and in November 2004. Significant trends were observed for oxygen concentration (increase) and several horizontal and vertical gradients. Among the copepods (72% of all individuals), the most abundant species were Paracalanus parvus (28%), Acartia tonsa (26%), and Calanus sp. (10%). The strong 1997–98 El Niño (EN) event led to drastic changes in species composition that were reversed during the 1998–99 La Niña (LN) event. Community parameters such as total abundance, diversity, equitability and species richness displayed marked variations associated with the 1997–98 EN and long-term trends. Long-term trends were significant for several vertical and horizontal temperature and oxygen gradients, indicating an increase in upwelling intensity at the shelf during the study period. 10-year-trends were also significant for total zooplankton abundance (increase) and community evenness (J, decline). Our data confirmed the importance of the weak EN in 2002/03 for the study region. Within the trend of increasing zooplankton abundance, a sharp step or shift was observed from 1999 to 2000. When using sequential t-tests to detect shifts in (x + 1) transformed abundance data, a significant rupture was found between the last sampling in 1999 and the first sampling in 2000. Also, a substantial decrease in diel variability occurred after 1999, probably due to changes in vertical migration patterns. The considerable increase in zooplankton abundance over the study period, the ENSO effect, and the 1999–2000 transition are discussed with regard to synchronicity with other zooplankton time series. The present study contributes with the first evidence from an important area located in the Humboldt Current for synchronous trends and changes that were previously observed elsewhere in the Pacific. Our results demonstrated the importance of long-term zooplankton monitoring studies in upwelling areas, and confirms the idea of dramatic changes in pelagic ecosystem structure occurring in the East Pacific.     

The evolution of urban traffic control: changing policy and technology

Abstract

The history of urban traffic control (UTC) throughout the past century has been a continued race to keep pace with ever more complex policy objectives and consistently increasing vehicle demand. Many benefits can be observed from an efficient UTC system, such as reduced congestion, increased economic efficiency and improved road safety and air quality.

There have been significant advances in vehicle detection and communication technologies which have enabled a series of step changes in the capabilities of UTC systems, from early (fixed time) signal plans to modern integrated systems. A variety of UTC systems have been implemented throughout the world, each with individual strengths and weaknesses; this paper seeks to compare the leading commercial systems (and some less well known systems) to highlight the key characteristics and differences before assessing whether the current UTC systems are capable of meeting modern transport policy obligations and desires.

This paper then moves on to consider current and future transport policy and the technological landscape in which UTC will need to operate over the coming decades, where technological advancements are expected to move UTC from an era of limited data availability to an era of data abundance.     

Nonlinear gating control for urban road traffic network using the network fundamental diagram

This work proposes a nonlinear model predictive controller for the urban gating problem. The system model is formalized based on a research on existing models of the network fundamental diagram and the perimeter control systems. For the existing models, modifications are suggested: additional state variables are allocated to describe the queue dynamics at the network gates. Using the extended model, a nonlinear model predictive controller is designed offering a ‘non‐greedy’ policy compared with previous, ‘greedy’ gating control designs. The greedy and non‐greedy nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) controllers are compared with a greedy linear feedback proportional‐integral‐derivative (PID) controller in different traffic situations. The proposed non‐greedy NMPC controller outperforms the other two approaches in terms of travel distance performance and queue lengths. The performance results justify the consideration of queue lengths in dynamic modeling, and the use of NMPC approach for controller design. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Automated vehicles: exploring possible consequences of government (non)intervention for congestion and accessibility

ABSTRACT

Academic research on automated vehicles (AVs) has to date been dominated by the fields of engineering and computer science. Questions of how this potentially transformative technology should be governed remain under-researched and tend to concentrate on governing the technology’s early development. We respond in this paper by exploring the possible longer-term effect of government (lack of) intervention.

The paper tests the hypothesis that a “laissez-faire” governance approach is likely to produce less desirable outcomes in a scenario of mass uptake of AVs than would a well-planned set of government interventions. This is done using two prominent themes in transport policy – traffic flow and accessibility – in a scenario of high market penetration of Level-5 automated vehicles in capitalist market economies. The evidence used is drawn from a literature review and from the findings of a set of workshops with stakeholders.

We suggest that a laissez-faire approach will lead to an increase in traffic volume as a result of a growing population of “drivers” and a probable increase in kilometres driven per passenger. At the same time, the hoped-for increases in network efficiency commonly claimed are not guaranteed to come about without appropriate government intervention. The likely consequence is an increase in congestion. And, with respect to accessibility, it is likely that the benefits of AVs will be enjoyed by wealthier individuals and that the wider impacts of AV use (including sprawl) may lead to a deterioration in accessibility for those who depend on walking, cycling or collective transport.

We consider the range of possible government intervention in five categories: Planning/land-use; Regulation/policy; Infrastructure/technology; Service provision; and Economic instruments. For each category, we set out a series of interventions that might be used by governments (at city, region or state level) to manage congestion or protect accessibility in the AV scenario described. Many of these (e.g. road pricing) are already part of the policy mix but some (e.g. ban empty running of AVs) would be new. We find that all interventions applicable to the management of traffic flow would also be expected to contribute to the management of accessibility; we define a small number of additional interventions aimed at protecting the accessibility of priority groups.

Our general finding is that the adoption of a package of these interventions could be expected to lead to better performance against generic traffic-flow and accessibility objectives than would a laissez-faire approach, though questions of extent of application remain.

In our conclusions, we contrast laissez-faire with both anticipatory governance and “precautionary” governance and acknowledge the political difficulty associated with acting in the context of uncertainty. We point out that AVs do not represent the first emerging technology to offer both opportunities and risks and challenge governments at all levels to acknowledge the extent of their potential influence and, in particular, to examine methodically the options available to them and the potential consequences of pursuing them.     

A dynamic approach to road freight flows modeling in Spain

This paper presents an innovative approach to analyzing road vehicle freight traffic that uses a dynamic panel data specification derived from a gravity model. This dynamic approach, which has recently been employed in international goods trade models in lieu of the traditional static specification, is applied to the case of Spain using data for the countrys 15 NUTS-3 regions between 1999 and 2009. Using the system general method of moments approach, we obtained significant evidence that the flow of vehicles carrying commodities by road has a strong persistence effect when controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. We also found that the quality of road transport infrastructure has a significant impact on vehicle trips. According to our findings, we suggest that this type of specification be employed in distribution models in which fixed effects and lags of the dependent variable are included to account for unobserved heterogeneity and persistence effects, respectively.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Santiago Panel</Emphasis>: measuring the effects of implementing Transantiago

Although panels offer significant advantages over cross sectional data especially in terms of evaluating the effects of significant policy changes, there are precious few examples of panels built around an important change to an urban transport system. For this reason we took the opportunity of the introduction of Transantiago, a radically new public transport system for Santiago de Chile in February 2007, to form a panel, the first wave of which was taken in December 2006. The final objective was to use this Santiago Panel to estimate mode choice models considering both inertia and policy effects. This document describes both the design and construction of the panel, and presents some results based on an analysis of its four waves; for example, we registered a high percentage of mode change (55.1%) attributable to the introduction of the new system. The panel can claim the highest response rate (or lowest attrition) reported in the literature (95% in the second wave, 92% in the third one, and 85% in the forth one). This hints at the possibility of developing sophisticated models to evaluate the effects of a system shock in the presence of inertia in decision making.     

Optimal design and benefits of a short turning strategy for a bus corridor

We develop a short turning model using demand information from station to station within a single bus line-single period setting, aimed at increasing the service frequency on the more loaded sections to deal with spatial concentration of demand considering both operators’ and users’ costs. We find analytical expressions for optimal values of the design variables, namely frequencies (inside and outside the short cycle), capacity of vehicles and the position of the short turn limit stations. These expressions are used to analyze the influence of different parameters in the final solution. The design variables and the corresponding cost components for operators and users (waiting and in-vehicle times) are compared against an optimized normal operation scheme (single frequency). Applications on actual transit corridors exhibiting different demand profiles are conducted, calculating the optimal values for the design variables and the resulting benefits for each case. Results show the typical demand configurations that are better served using a short turn strategy.