A probabilistic damage tolerance concept for welded joints. Part 1: data base and stochastic modelling

The present paper presents the necessary crack growth statistics and suggests stochastic models for a reliability analysis of the fatigue fracture of welded steel plate joints. The reliability levels are derived from extensive testing with fillet-welded joints for which the entire crack growth history has been measured, not only the final fatigue life. The statistics for the time to reach given crack depths are determined. Fracture-mechanics-derived crack growth curves are fitted to the measured experimental curves and the best fit defines the growth parameters involved for each test specimen. The derived statistics and distribution function for these parameters are used as variables in a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). In addition a Markov model is developed as an alternative stochastic model. It is a Markov chain for which the discrete damage states are related to chosen crack depths in the material. This model works directly with the experimental time statistics. It is a “stochastic bulk approach” not involving any random variables or fracture mechanics modeling. Both models are fitted to the data base and scaled to in-service conditions. Both methods are compared and discussed. The aim is to provide data for the variables used in a MCS and to develop a Markov chain for fast reliability calculation, especially when predicting the most likely influence of numerous future inspections.     

Perception bias in route choice

Travel time is probably one of the most studied attributes in route choice. Recently, perception of travel time received more attention as several studies have shown its importance in explaining route choice behavior. In particular, travel time estimates by travelers appear to be biased against non-chosen options even if these are faster. In this paper, we study travel time perception and route choice of routes with different degrees of road hierarchy and directness. In the Dutch city of Enschede, respondents were asked to choose a route and provide their estimated travel times for both the preferred and alternative routes. These travel times were then compared with actual travel times. Results from previous studies were confirmed and expanded. The shortest time route was chosen in 41 % of the cases while the perceived shortest time route was chosen by almost 80 % of the respondents. Respondents overestimated travel time in general but overestimated the travel time of non-chosen routes more than the travel time of chosen routes. Perception of travel time depends on road hierarchy and route directness, as more direct routes and routes higher up in the hierarchy were perceived as being relatively fast. In addition, there is evidence that these attributes also influence route choice independently of perceived travel time. Finally, travel time perceptions appear to be most strongly biased against non-chosen options when respondents were familiar with the route or indicated a clear preference for the chosen routes. This result indicates that behavior will be more difficult to change for the regular travelers.     

Automated vehicles: exploring possible consequences of government (non)intervention for congestion and accessibility

ABSTRACT

Academic research on automated vehicles (AVs) has to date been dominated by the fields of engineering and computer science. Questions of how this potentially transformative technology should be governed remain under-researched and tend to concentrate on governing the technology’s early development. We respond in this paper by exploring the possible longer-term effect of government (lack of) intervention.

The paper tests the hypothesis that a “laissez-faire” governance approach is likely to produce less desirable outcomes in a scenario of mass uptake of AVs than would a well-planned set of government interventions. This is done using two prominent themes in transport policy – traffic flow and accessibility – in a scenario of high market penetration of Level-5 automated vehicles in capitalist market economies. The evidence used is drawn from a literature review and from the findings of a set of workshops with stakeholders.

We suggest that a laissez-faire approach will lead to an increase in traffic volume as a result of a growing population of “drivers” and a probable increase in kilometres driven per passenger. At the same time, the hoped-for increases in network efficiency commonly claimed are not guaranteed to come about without appropriate government intervention. The likely consequence is an increase in congestion. And, with respect to accessibility, it is likely that the benefits of AVs will be enjoyed by wealthier individuals and that the wider impacts of AV use (including sprawl) may lead to a deterioration in accessibility for those who depend on walking, cycling or collective transport.

We consider the range of possible government intervention in five categories: Planning/land-use; Regulation/policy; Infrastructure/technology; Service provision; and Economic instruments. For each category, we set out a series of interventions that might be used by governments (at city, region or state level) to manage congestion or protect accessibility in the AV scenario described. Many of these (e.g. road pricing) are already part of the policy mix but some (e.g. ban empty running of AVs) would be new. We find that all interventions applicable to the management of traffic flow would also be expected to contribute to the management of accessibility; we define a small number of additional interventions aimed at protecting the accessibility of priority groups.

Our general finding is that the adoption of a package of these interventions could be expected to lead to better performance against generic traffic-flow and accessibility objectives than would a laissez-faire approach, though questions of extent of application remain.

In our conclusions, we contrast laissez-faire with both anticipatory governance and “precautionary” governance and acknowledge the political difficulty associated with acting in the context of uncertainty. We point out that AVs do not represent the first emerging technology to offer both opportunities and risks and challenge governments at all levels to acknowledge the extent of their potential influence and, in particular, to examine methodically the options available to them and the potential consequences of pursuing them.     

BUICK轿跑

编辑老师们好：有几个问题想请教一下。非常感谢! 1．大众的发动机的缸体材料大多数都是铁质的。而其它很多厂家的都是铝制的,请问这两种材料对发动机的寿命、燃油效率、输出功率和扭矩、制作成本和后期维护等方面有什么不同。如果是铝的好。那么大众这样做的原因是降低成本吗？     

Coordinating buses and rapid rail in the San Francisco Bay Area: The case of Bay Area Rapid Transit

This paper examines attempts by planners and policy makers to analyze and bring about the coordination of rail and bus transit in the San Francisco Bay Area. Drawing on studies and plans before and after the creation of the rapid rail system BART (Bay Area Rapid Transit), the author points to technical, analytical and political problems in attempts to link BART and buses. Some options and cautions are presented for planners considering route coordination, feeder buses, transfers and institutional arrangements to manage bus and rail services.     

混合动力车辆的技术特征及其故障诊断与维修

当一辆混合动力车辆被送到你的修理厂请求维修时,你是选择让客户将这辆车送回到经销商那儿去修理,失去赢得一个新客户的机会;还是选择主动努力学习,掌握修理混合动力车辆新的检测维修技术呢?显然,为了服务于客户,也为了拓展自身维修厂的业务,我们应该选择后一种态度。     

压力钢带式无级变速器技术降低油耗的潜能分析(二)

参考CVT装在一辆奔驰A190车辆上，在3个测试循环及两种恒速状态下，通过认可的方法对油耗进行测量。表2所示的是采用绝对安全系数Sfabs=1.3的目前策略与新的控制策略之间的减少量。     

Requirements from vehicle routing software: perspectives from literature,developers and the freight industry

Routing and scheduling software is part of the information and technology systems available to support the transport industry, and uses complex algorithms along with geographical representations of the road network to allow better planning of daily collection and delivery schedules. This paper reviews the evolution of routing and scheduling software, the algorithms used along with reported barriers to wider take-up and potential industry-driven improvements that could be made. A survey of transport companies in the U.K. was conducted in order to validate and prioritise the software capabilities that require the most development according to the new challenges that the industry is facing. Responses suggested that companies required improved route optimisation to tackle congestion based on time-dependent data and models, and greater accuracy in the representation of the road network. Not considering congestion leads to the underestimation of travel times and the production of inaccurate schedules. Literature shows that operational research techniques are available to solve problems that represent real-world conditions, but research into the relative merits of using time-dependent models needs to be undertaken. Data might be improved by cooperation between government and private sector.     

Travel plans for new developments: a global review

A travel plan is a mechanism for delivering a package of transport measures at a site to manage car use and encourage the use of more sustainable forms of transport. In recent years, travel plans have been required for new infill and greenfield developments through the land-use planning and approvals process, predominantly in the United Kingdom, the United States, continental Europe and Australia. This paper contributes to the literature by providing a global review of travel plans for new developments. The results show that while travel plans for new developments share a common set of elements with those for pre-existing sites, differences within each element are notable, particularly in the types of travel plan measures adopted, processes for managing the travel plan, and approaches to monitoring and review. Results of previous evaluations have varied considerably, although most have reported a reduction in car driver trips of 10–20 percentage points. Despite this, most evaluations lack rigour, with a paucity of robust evidence. Key success factors identified by the literature, such as the provision of an explicit policy supporting the role of travel plans, should be embedded within the travel planning process where possible to ensure best outcomes for new developments.