Perception bias in route choice

Travel time is probably one of the most studied attributes in route choice. Recently, perception of travel time received more attention as several studies have shown its importance in explaining route choice behavior. In particular, travel time estimates by travelers appear to be biased against non-chosen options even if these are faster. In this paper, we study travel time perception and route choice of routes with different degrees of road hierarchy and directness. In the Dutch city of Enschede, respondents were asked to choose a route and provide their estimated travel times for both the preferred and alternative routes. These travel times were then compared with actual travel times. Results from previous studies were confirmed and expanded. The shortest time route was chosen in 41 % of the cases while the perceived shortest time route was chosen by almost 80 % of the respondents. Respondents overestimated travel time in general but overestimated the travel time of non-chosen routes more than the travel time of chosen routes. Perception of travel time depends on road hierarchy and route directness, as more direct routes and routes higher up in the hierarchy were perceived as being relatively fast. In addition, there is evidence that these attributes also influence route choice independently of perceived travel time. Finally, travel time perceptions appear to be most strongly biased against non-chosen options when respondents were familiar with the route or indicated a clear preference for the chosen routes. This result indicates that behavior will be more difficult to change for the regular travelers.     

Valuing Estuarine Resource Services Using Economic and Ecological Models: The Peconic Estuary System Study

This article summarizes four integrated economic studies undertaken to contribute to resource preservation and restoration decisions for the Peconic Estuary System of Suffolk County, NY. Completed as part of the National Estuary Program, the studies apply distinct resource valuation methods to a wide range of resource issues. The principal goals of this article are to highlight different methodologies that may be used to assess nonmarket economic values in a coastal management context, and characterize differences in the results that one may expect from each approach. We also emphasize potential relationships among values estimated by different nonmarket methodologies, and comment on the implications of these relationships for the interpretation and use of economic value estimates.     

Automated vehicles: exploring possible consequences of government (non)intervention for congestion and accessibility

ABSTRACT

Academic research on automated vehicles (AVs) has to date been dominated by the fields of engineering and computer science. Questions of how this potentially transformative technology should be governed remain under-researched and tend to concentrate on governing the technology’s early development. We respond in this paper by exploring the possible longer-term effect of government (lack of) intervention.

The paper tests the hypothesis that a “laissez-faire” governance approach is likely to produce less desirable outcomes in a scenario of mass uptake of AVs than would a well-planned set of government interventions. This is done using two prominent themes in transport policy – traffic flow and accessibility – in a scenario of high market penetration of Level-5 automated vehicles in capitalist market economies. The evidence used is drawn from a literature review and from the findings of a set of workshops with stakeholders.

We suggest that a laissez-faire approach will lead to an increase in traffic volume as a result of a growing population of “drivers” and a probable increase in kilometres driven per passenger. At the same time, the hoped-for increases in network efficiency commonly claimed are not guaranteed to come about without appropriate government intervention. The likely consequence is an increase in congestion. And, with respect to accessibility, it is likely that the benefits of AVs will be enjoyed by wealthier individuals and that the wider impacts of AV use (including sprawl) may lead to a deterioration in accessibility for those who depend on walking, cycling or collective transport.

We consider the range of possible government intervention in five categories: Planning/land-use; Regulation/policy; Infrastructure/technology; Service provision; and Economic instruments. For each category, we set out a series of interventions that might be used by governments (at city, region or state level) to manage congestion or protect accessibility in the AV scenario described. Many of these (e.g. road pricing) are already part of the policy mix but some (e.g. ban empty running of AVs) would be new. We find that all interventions applicable to the management of traffic flow would also be expected to contribute to the management of accessibility; we define a small number of additional interventions aimed at protecting the accessibility of priority groups.

Our general finding is that the adoption of a package of these interventions could be expected to lead to better performance against generic traffic-flow and accessibility objectives than would a laissez-faire approach, though questions of extent of application remain.

In our conclusions, we contrast laissez-faire with both anticipatory governance and “precautionary” governance and acknowledge the political difficulty associated with acting in the context of uncertainty. We point out that AVs do not represent the first emerging technology to offer both opportunities and risks and challenge governments at all levels to acknowledge the extent of their potential influence and, in particular, to examine methodically the options available to them and the potential consequences of pursuing them.     

Traffic accident risk perception among drivers: a latent variable approach

ABSTRACT

Governments require decision tools to deal with road traffic accidents, a pandemic resulting in millions of deaths around the world. Evidence shows that human factors are one of the major causes of road accidents, and there is much interest in identifying variables that may have an impact on drivers’ perception of risk. To this aim, we design a stated choice experiment with eight hypothetical driving scenarios considering attributes that have been strongly associated with increased accident risks: (i) driving speed, (ii) driving the wrong way in a one-way street, (iii) overtaking on a bend, and (iv) driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs. Data from a sample of survey respondents are used to estimate a hybrid discrete choice model incorporating two latent variables, Driver Concentration and Safe Driving. Our results may contribute to the design of public policies geared to prevent accidents by encouraging safer driving behaviour.     

Addressing endogeneity in strategic urban mode choice models

Transportation - Endogeneity is a potential anomaly in econometric models, which may cause inconsistent parameter estimates. Transport models are prone to this problem and applications that...     

Logistics and supply chain management

In this paper an introduction to the principles and methods used in logistics and supply chain management is presented. It begins by a discussion on fundamentals and explains the relevant terms. Next policy and practice associated with logistics and freight services are regarded with a focus on the EU policy for the sector which greatly influences the development of logistics chains and services. Mathematical formulation of typical transport and logistics-related problems is also presented followed by a discussion on the concept of sustainability.     

Slam events of high-speed catamarans in irregular waves

Slam events experienced by high-speed catamarans in irregular waves were characterised through experiments using a hydroelastic segmented model. The model was designed to represent the dynamic behaviour of the full-scale Incat 112 m vessel and to allow the measurement of the slam load on the centrebow and wet deck. It was tested in irregular head seas at two speeds relating to Froude numbers of 0.32 and 0.60. Nearly 300 slams were identified in the test data and analysed with respect to kinematic parameters. Slams were found to have a large range of magnitudes, with the largest equivalent to 1785 tonnes full scale (approximately 70% of vessel displacement); however, the majority of events were of relatively low severity. Differences in slam characteristics were found for the two model speeds tested; slams at the slower speed generally occurred further forward on the hull, prior to the wave crest and with a bow down pitch angle. Immersion of the centrebow to the two-dimensional filling height of the cross-section between the centrebow and demihulls is shown to be a better indicator of slam occurrence than immersion to the top of the archway.     

Modelling multiple yacht sailing interactions between upwind sailing yachts

An approach for enhancing the realism of yacht fleet race simulations based on a lifting line method is developed. The wake of an upwind sailing yacht is represented as a single heeled horseshoe vortex and image system. At each time step, changes in vortex strength are convected into the wake as a pair of vortex line elements. These subsequently move in accordance with the local wind, the self-induced velocity and the velocity induced by the presence of the wakes of other yachts. In addition, the lifting line model has a model for the viscous wake due to the drag associated with the yacht and its sails superimposed on it. A synthesis of sail yacht wake representations based on detailed 3D Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes computational fluid dynamics calculations with wind tunnel test results is used to capture the initial strength of the combined main-jib vortex system and its vertical height. The implementation of the lifting line algorithm within Robo-Race, a real-time yacht race strategy analysis tool, is described. Two upwind race interaction case studies are presented, and these show that the newly implemented wake model makes an important contribution to enhancing the realism of the sailing simulation.