Effect of Seismic Parameters on the Safety Factor for an Underground Cavern北大核心CSCD

In order to quantitatively evaluate the safety of the surrounding rock of an underground cavern under seis-mic load, a comprehensive evaluation method for the stability of surrounding rock is proposed based on the general safety factor and point safety factor. A calculation method for the general safety factor of a cavern based on the prin-ciple of shear strength reduction of a rock mass is given, the run-through of the plastic zone between the main power-house and main transformer room is presented as a critical criterion for the overall instability of the cavern, and the general safety factor is obtained by searching for the reduction coefficient. A point safety factor calculation method based on the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion is given. The influence of different seismic input parameters on the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions are studied based on an underground power-house cavern of a hydropower station in Southwest China. The results show that the quantitative evaluation method for the stability of the surrounding rock based on the safety factor is feasible and can reflect the general safety de-gree and local safety degree of different positions of the cavern for different working conditions. It is found that the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions decrease with an increase of the ampli-tude and duration of a seismic wave while they increase with an increase of the incident angle; additionally, the low frequency of a seismic wave has a great influence on the cavern while the high frequency has little effect. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

A Study of Prevention Techniques for Tunnel Lining Defects北大核心CSCD

Defects of tunnel lining, such as inadequate thickness, voids, cracks, rock falling and water leakage etc., endanger the safety of railway tunnel operation. Based on the site construction, an analysis of the reasons for lining defects was conducted; technical measures against lining defects were proposed and tests were carried out at site. The results show that these measures are reliable and effective, and the purposes of prevention and treatment are re⁃ alized. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Adapting without Retreating: Responses to Shoreline Change on an Inlet-Associated Coastal Beach

Coastal barrier systems around the world are experiencing higher rates of flooding and shoreline erosion. Property owners on barriers have made significant financial investments in physical protections that shield their nearby properties from these hazards, constituting a type of adaptation to shoreline change. Factors that contribute to adaptation on Plum Island, a developed beach and dune system on the North Shore of Massachusetts, are investigated here. Plum Island experiences patterns of shoreline change that may be representative of many inlet-associated beaches, encompassing an equivocal and dynamically shifting mix of erosion and accretion. In the face of episodic floods and fleeting erosive events, and driven by a combination of strong northeast storms and cycles of erosion and accretion, the value of the average Plum Island residence increases by 34% for properties on the oceanfront where protection comprises a publicly constructed soft structure. Even in the face of state policies that ostensibly discourage physical protection as a means of adaptation, coastal communities face significant political and financial pressures to maintain existing protective structures or to allow contiguous groups of property owners to build new ones through collective action. These factors mitigate against adapting to shoreline change by retreating from the coast, thereby potentially increasing the adverse effects of coastal hazards.     

Situation analysis forecasting: the case of European maritime clusters

Within the literature concerned with aspects of competitiveness, innovation and strategic management of industrial clusters, the body regarding forecasting of strategic management is still nascent. This work aspires to render a contribution within the domain of strategic management forecasting, through the indicative case of European maritime clusters. For this end, a two-tier model is formulated. A quantitative strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) methodology that derives from the fusion of a quondam situation analysis and crosstabs’ theory is generated. This leads to the utilization of the crosstab’s conditional probabilities as transition probabilities; the latter are called to compile the transition matrix of a Markov chain. Through this methodology, and the successive Markov chain’s transition matrices, strategic forecasts are extracted for a devised European maritime cluster case. This work relinquishes a novel application with respect to strategic management forecasting, that provides a dichotomy of practical interpretations and scenarios for quantitative situation analysis. Thus, it may enable effective real-time decision-making for strategic management and/or policy drafting. The situation analysis forecasting model may find applicability in a plethora of practical and theoretical cases, wherein forecasting may be desirable. It may as well pertain to an intrinsic methodology for situation analysis forecasting of maritime clusters.     

Sea Cucumber Moratorium and Livelihood Diversity in Papua New Guinea

Livelihood diversity factors such as flexibility within fisheries, geographical mobility, reallocation of fishing effort into the broader economy, and the non-material benefits that fisheries provide are important areas of research in marine policy. We use two small-scale fisheries related socio-economic surveys of communities in the Tigak Islands of Papua New Guinea. The first conducted 5 years before a ban on the harvesting of sea cucumbers was imposed and the second from the present day, 5 years after the initiation of the ban—with the objectives of exploring changes in household fishing strategies (types and numbers of species targeted) and to identify any important socioeconomic factors that help explain those changes. Fishing's contribution to total household income has increased significantly (p = 0.019) up from 61% in 2004 to 73% in 2014 with the percentage of female residents living in a household now positively and significantly (p = 0.018) associated with fishing income. The average number of species categories targeted per household increased insignificantly while households with more women are significantly (p = 0.018) less likely to target more species than households with more men. Moreover, customary management practices contribute to this difference. Together, these results show that households are not worse off financially 5 years after the ban on sea cucumber harvesting and that gendered seascape use has implications for the role of livelihood diversity as a marine policy tool.     

Genetics of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning

This paper presents a review and classification of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning purposes by using concepts analogous to genetics in biology. Traffic assignment models share the same theoretical framework (DNA), but differ in capability (genes). We argue that all traffic assignment models can be described by three genes. The first gene determines the spatial capability (unrestricted, capacity restrained, capacity constrained, and capacity and storage constrained) described by four spatial assumptions (shape of the fundamental diagram, capacity constraints, storage constraints, and turn flow restrictions). The second gene determines the temporal capability (static, semi-dynamic, and dynamic) described by three temporal assumptions (wave speeds, vehicle propagation speeds, and residual traffic transfer). The third gene determines the behavioural capability (all-or-nothing, one shot, and equilibrium) described by two behavioural assumptions (decision-making and travel time consideration). This classification provides a deeper understanding of the often implicit assumptions made in traffic assignment models described in the literature. It further allows for comparing different models in terms of functionality, and paves the way for developing novel traffic assignment models.     

The Bid-rent Land Use Model of the simple,efficient, elegant,and effective model of land use and transportation

Integrated land use/transportation forecasting models add significant policy and infrastructure alternatives analysis capabilities to the urban planning process. The financial, time, and staff requirements to develop these models has put them beyond the reach of most small to medium sized urban areas. This paper presents the land use allocation submodel of the Simple, Efficient, Elegant, and Effective model of land use and transportation (SE³M), an integrated land use and transportation forecasting model founded upon Economic Base Theory and Bid-rent Theory. The Bid-rent Land Use Model (BLUM) is an agent based, spatial competition model utilizing unique utility curves for willingness to pay and incomes for budget constrained abilities to pay for each agent. The model structure, estimation, calibration, implementation, and validation are presented. With a single year of land use data available, the validation approach used the Kappa Index of Agreement to spatially check model outputs against base year control data while controlling for agreement by chance. The U.S. territory of Guam is used as the case study/proof of concept implementation for this model framework. Once calibrated, BLUM could solve the spatial competition problem on Guam in less than two minutes of processing time with over 90% accuracy.     

Evaluating air emission inventories and indicators from cruise vessels at ports

This paper provides an estimation of air emissions (CO₂, NO_X, SO_X and PM) released by cruise vessels at the port level. The methodology is based on the “full bottom-up” approach and starts by evaluating the fuel consumed by each vessel on the basis of its individual port activities (manoeuvring, berthing and hoteling). The Port of Barcelona was selected as the site at which to perform the analysis, in which 125 calls of 30 cruise vessels were monitored. Real-time data from the automatic identification system (AIS), factor emissions from engine certificates and vessel characteristics from IHS Sea-web database were also collected for the analysis. The research findings show that the most appropriate indicators are inventory emissions per “port-time gross tonnage”, “port-time passenger” and “port time”. These emission indicators improve our understanding of cruise emissions and will facilitate the work that aims to estimate reliably and quickly the in-port ship emission inventories of cruise ports.     

Dynamics of inorganic nutrient species in the Bohai seawaters

Within the frame of a Sino-German Joint Research Program, two cruises of “R/V Dong Fang Hong 2” were carried out in September–October 1998 and April–May 1999, respectively, to understand the dynamics of nutrients in the Bohai. Nutrient species (NO₃⁻, NO₂⁻, NH₄⁺, PO₄³⁻ and SiO₃²⁻) are determined colorimetrically on board for five anchor and 30 grid stations. In situ incubation experiments are performed to determine planktonic nutrient uptake and benthic exchange flux. Nutrient concentrations display short-term variability and seasonal change in the Bohai, with higher levels in shallow coastal waters than in the Central Bohai. The influence of riverine discharge on nutrient levels can be seen from salinity isopleths, nutrient distribution and species ratios. Near-bottom (nb) waters have similar nutrient concentrations as to the surface waters in the Central Bohai, whereas stratification takes place in the Bohai Strait and North Yellow Sea. In situ incubation experiments provide evidence that the uptake ratio (i.e. N, P) by phytoplankton is proportional to the ratios among nutrient species in ambient waters. Based on the data of this study and previously publications, a preliminary estimate of nutrient budgets via riverine input and atmospheric deposition is established. The results indicate that atmospheric deposition gains importance over rivers in delivering nutrients into the Bohai and sustain the new production, following recent decrease in riverine inflow caused by drought periods in North China and damming practices. A historical review of nutrient data indicates that concentrations of nitrogen increase and phosphorus and silica decrease in the Central Bohai over last 40 years. This potentially has an important influence on the health of ecosystem in Bohai (e.g. food web and community structure), though further study is needed to examine the scenario in more detail.     

The importance of oceanographic fronts to marine birds and mammals of the southern oceans

During the last 30 years, at-sea studies of seabirds and marine mammals in the oceans south of the Subtropical Front have described an association with major frontal areas. More recently, the advancement in microtechnology has allowed the tracking of individuals and investigations into how these marine predators actually use the frontal zones. In this review, we examine 1) the relative importance to apex predators of the different frontal zones in terms of spatial distribution and carbon flux; 2) the processes that determine their preferential use; and 3) how the mesoscale dynamics of frontal structures drive at-sea foraging strategies of these predators. We review published results from southern waters and place them in a broader context with respect to what has been learned about the importance of fronts in oceans farther north.Some fronts constitute important boundaries for seabird communities in southern waters. At a mesoscale the maximum values of seabird diversity and abundance correspond to the location of the main fronts. At-sea surveys show a strong curvilinear correlation between seabird abundance and sea surface temperatures. High mean species richness and diversity for whales and seabirds are consistently associated with the southern water mass boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the Subtropical Front and the Subantarctic Front; in the case of the Polar Front mean seabird densities are more variable. At small-scales, variation in seabird occurrence has been directly related to the processes at fronts in a limited number of cases. A significant positive relation was found between some plankton feeding species and frontal temperature gradient–phytoplankton variables.Telemetric studies have revealed that several apex predators (penguins, albatrosses, seals) perform long, directed foraging trips either to the Subtropical front or Polar Front, depending on locality. Seabirds with low flight costs, such as albatrosses, are able to reach fronts at long distances from colonies, showing variable foraging strategies as a function of the distances involved. Diving birds such as King penguins, that travel at a higher cost and lower speed, rely on the predictable spatial distribution of mesopelagic fish found close to the Polar Front. They may use the currents associated with eddies as oceanographic cues in the active search for frontal zones. Once in these areas they dive preferentially in and below the depth of the thermocline where catches per unit effort are high. Elephant seals concentrate foraging activity principally inside or at the boundary of cyclonic eddies. These mesoscale features appear to offer exceptional productivity favourable for foraging by various diving top predators.The connection between biophysical parameters at fronts and predators is likely to be made through biological enhancement. Top predators appear to forage at locations where prey are advected by physical processes and others where prey are produced locally. Long-term research on at-sea distributions and demographic parameters of top predators are essential to assess the consequences of potential shift in front distributions in relation to global warming. Such environmental changes would add to the impact of fish extraction by the industrial fisheries on the southern food webs.