Overview of intelligent ship route optimization methods北大核心CSCD

智能船舶航线优化在学术界和工业界均受到越来越多的关注。针对智能船舶航线优化问题,从航线设计方法和航线优化算法这2个层面,分别阐述各种设计方法和优化算法的特点。结合近5年来的最新研究成果,在分析国内外智能船舶航线优化技术发展现状的基础上,将航线设计方法归纳为3种,即基于气象数据的航线优化、基于油耗模型的航线优化以及基于航线库或航路点库的航线优化,剖析其技术内涵及应用情况;深入分析改进的等时线法、动态规划法、图形搜索算法、智能算法、人工智能和机器学习算法的特性及不足,总结归纳将各类算法应用于智能船舶航线优化时存在的主要问题。最后,简要展望智能船舶航线优化的发展趋势,为未来在该领域的研究提供一定的思路。     

Survey of ship platoon cooperative control北大核心CSCD

船舶列队是未来水路运输的重要方式。分析船舶列队协同控制的特点和原理;从船−岸协同交互、列队控制模型、列队运动控制、列队典型应用等4个方面分别进行现状分析与梳理。总结当前船舶列队控制技术瓶颈,包括人机共驾控制、列队控制运动不确定性建模、列队协同控制一致性、通信受限下船舶列队鲁棒控制及一致性控制等。最后,指出未来的船舶列队协同控制发展,应重点解决基于数据驱动与机理融合的列队运动建模、基于生物群体机制的船舶列队控制、基于分层控制的船舶列队控制等关键问题。     

Hybrid Electric Drive for DDG-51 Class Destroyers

The first of the Arleigh Burke class destroyers is nearing its mid-life. This class of ships was designed during the late 1970s through the 1980s to meet the threats that were prevalent at that time. Since entering service in 1991, these ships have shown themselves to be extremely versatile and the class now consists of nearly 60 ships in service. Their combat systems have been continually upgraded and adapted to meet the new threats the United States faces today. However, in order to keep these platforms viable throughout the first half of the 21st century, their operating costs must be reduced. Manpower, maintenance, and fuel are three of the top operating cost drivers. Most surface combatants spend very little of their underway time operating at full speed or even close to that. Over 1/3 of their underway time is spent at 12 knots and under. This is less than half of their maximum speed and only a fraction of the maximum power owing to the cubic speed–power relationship. Although the existing mechanical drive system is reasonably efficient, the main gas turbines are extremely inefficient at these very low power levels. A shaft-mounted auxiliary electric propulsion system (EPS) can take advantage of excess capacity in the ship service generators to reduce the main engine operating hours. Enabling bi-directional power flow from this auxiliary electric drive will provide additional generation capacity for ship service loads at a modest additional cost. It also provides a "cross-connect" capability from one shaft to the other. This paper will explore one prospect for reducing the operating cost of the DDG-51 class of ships by installing an auxiliary EPS that would powered by the ship service electrical plant. This additional system would serve to reduce both underway fuel usage as well as maintenance on the gas turbine main engines by reducing the number of operating hours on each engine. We will examine the technology trade-offs in this ongoing study.     

1/32° real-time global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16° resolution

A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25–75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to (a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and (b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean – topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system.     

Quantifying uncertainty in high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem models

Marine ecosystem models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, and are being used to estimate the effects of future changes in the earth system with a view to informing important policy decisions. Despite their potential importance, far too little attention has been, and is generally, paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to real-world processes. With the increasing complexity of the models themselves comes an increasing complexity among model results. If we are to develop useful modelling tools for the marine environment we need to be able to understand and quantify the uncertainties inherent in the simulations. Analysing errors within highly multivariate model outputs, and relating them to even more complex and multivariate observational data, are not trivial tasks. Here we describe the application of a series of techniques, including a 2-stage self-organising map (SOM), non-parametric multivariate analysis, and error statistics, to a complex spatio-temporal model run for the period 1988–1989 in the Southern North Sea, coinciding with the North Sea Project which collected a wealth of observational data. We use model output, large spatio-temporally resolved data sets and a combination of methodologies (SOM, MDS, uncertainty metrics) to simplify the problem and to provide tractable information on model performance. The use of a SOM as a clustering tool allows us to simplify the dimensions of the problem while the use of MDS on independent data grouped according to the SOM classification allows us to validate the SOM. The combination of classification and uncertainty metrics allows us to pinpoint the variables and associated processes which require attention in each region. We recommend the use of this combination of techniques for simplifying complex comparisons of model outputs with real data, and analysis of error distributions.     

Short-term Hourly Traffic Forecasts using Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census

The need for acquiring the current-year traffic data is a problem for transport planners since such data may not be available for on-going transport studies. A method is proposed in this paper to predict hourly traffic flows up to and into the near future, using historical data collected from the Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census (ATC). Two parametric and two non-parametric models have been employed and evaluated in this study. The results show that the non-parametric models (Non-Parametric Regression (NPR) and Gaussian Maximum Likelihood (GML)) were more promising for predicting hourly traffic flows at the selected ATC station. Further analysis encompassing 87 ATC stations revealed that the NPR is likely to react to unexpected changes more effectively than the GML method, while the GML model performs better under steady traffic flows. Taking into consideration the dynamic nature of the common traffic patterns in Hong Kong and the advantages/disadvantages of the various models, the NPR model is recommended for predicting the hourly traffic flows in that region.     

Effects of the Los Angeles transit strike on highway congestion

In this paper we investigate the effect of the Los Angeles transit strike on highway congestion through analysis of highway sensor data, using both a before-and-after comparison, and a control group comparison. We found that average 5:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. traffic speeds declined by as much as 20% during the strike, and the average length of the rush period increased by as much as 200%, even though increases in traffic were small, despite the fact that transit riders constitute a small fraction of the traveling population. Speeds declined the most at locations upstream from the places where queues normally end. We believe that highways are especially susceptible to congestion during strikes because travelers have little opportunity to adjust and equilibrate their travel patterns, as is possible during ordinary periods of traffic growth.     

Demand for rail travel to and from airports

Rail access to airports is becoming increasingly important for both train operators and the airports themselves. This paper reports analysis of inter-urban rail demand to and from Manchester and Stansted Airports and the sensitivity of this market segment to growth in air traffic and the cost and service quality of rail services. The estimated demand parameters vary in an expected manner between outward and inward air travellers as well as between airport users and general rail travellers. These parameters can be entered into the demand forecasting framework widely used in the rail industry in Great Britain to provide an appropriate means of forecasting for this otherwise neglected market segment. The novel features of this research, at least in the British context, are that it provides the first detailed analysis of aggregate rail flows to and from airports, it has disaggregated the traditional generalised time measure of rail service quality in order to estimate separate elasticities to journey time, service headway and interchange, and it has successfully explored departures from the conventional constant elasticity position.     

Neuro-Fuzzy Control of a Tracked Vehicle Featuring Semi-Active Electro-Rheological Suspension Units

This paper presents vibration control of a tracked vehicle installed with electro-rheological suspension units (ERSU). As a first step, an in-arm type ERSU is designed, and its spring and damping characteristics are evaluated with respect to the intensity of electric fields. Subsequently, a 16 degree-of-freedom model for a tracked vehicle equipped with the proposed ERSU is established followed by the formulation of a neuro-fuzzy controller. This controller takes account for both ride quality and steering stability by adopting a weighting parameter between two performance requirements. The parameter is appropriately determined by employing a fuzzy algorithm associated with two fuzzy variables: the vertical speed of the body and the rotational angular speed of the wheel. Control performances to isolate unwanted vibration from bump and random road excitations are evaluated through computer simulations. In addition, maximum speed of the vehicle with 6 Watt power absorption is investigated with respect to the road roughness.