Collection, spillback, and dissipation in pedestrian evacuation: A network-based method

We present a method of predicting pedestrian route choice behavior and physical congestion during the evacuation of indoor areas with internal obstacles. Under the proposed method, a network is first constructed by discretizing the space into regular hexagonal cells and giving these cells potentials before a modified cell transmission model is employed to predict the evolution of pedestrian flow in the network over time and space. Several properties of this cell transmission model are explored. The method can be used to predict the evolution of pedestrian flow over time and space in indoor areas with internal obstacles and to investigate the collection, spillback, and dissipation behavior of pedestrians passing through a bottleneck. The cell transmission model is further extended to imitate the movements of multiple flows of pedestrians with different destinations. An algorithm based on generalized cell potential is also developed to assign the pedestrian flow.     

Brittleness analysis and important nodes discovery in large time-evolving complex networks

The brittleness analysis and important nodes detection have been a hot spot in the complex networks. How to get the overall feature of the whole network and how to find out some important nodes are requisites to solve these problems. In this paper, we adopt the trace of the adjacency matrix and the centrality of the complex networks to give a quantitative and qualitative analysis of networks being studied. Results show that the k-shell plays a more important role than the degree centrality and the betweenness in finding important nodes, and it can also be used to give direction on the immunization and maintenance of complex networks.     

降低传动系统冲击载荷的一种有效方法

研究了半轴、传动轴扭转刚度对传动系冲击载荷最大值的影响,得出了半轴扭转刚度与传动系冲击载荷最大值之间的函数关系,指出降低半轴扭转刚度是减小传动系冲击载荷最大值,提高传动系可靠性的有效方法。研制了新型非调质刚半轴,并将其与原调质刚半轴进行了对比试验。结果表明,将非调质钢半轴杆径从60 mm减小到58 mm,其静扭刚度及疲劳寿命均可满足技术要求,而扭转刚度较原调质刚半轴略有降低,有利于整个传动系降低冲击载荷。     

船舶燃油系统使用低硫油的应对新措施

随着全球环境保护需求的不断提高,使得有关船舶硫化物排放的国际标准日益严格,从而导致船用低硫柴油的应用量正在逐渐增加。然而,目前大多数柴油机和燃油系统是针对传统燃油而设计的,由于低硫油的特殊性质,在使用低硫燃油过程中必然会产生一些问题。本文就低硫油的性质总结出了最新应对措施,确保了船舶的安全营运。     

Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling

This study reviews the 50-year history of travel demand forecasting models, concentrating on their accuracy and relevance for public decision-making. Only a few studies of model accuracy have been performed, but they find that the likely inaccuracy in the 20-year forecast of major road projects is ±30 % at minimum, with some estimates as high as ±40–50 % over even shorter time horizons. There is a significant tendency to over-estimate traffic and underestimate costs, particularly for toll roads. Forecasts of transit costs and ridership are even more uncertain and also significantly optimistic. The greatest knowledge gap in US travel demand modeling is the unknown accuracy of US urban road traffic forecasts. Modeling weaknesses leading to these problems (non-behavioral content, inaccuracy of inputs and key assumptions, policy insensitivity, and excessive complexity) are identified. In addition, the institutional and political environments that encourage optimism bias and low risk assessment in forecasts are also reviewed. Major institutional factors, particularly low local funding matches and competitive grants, confound scenario modeling efforts and dampen the hope that technical modeling improvements alone can improve forecasting accuracy. The fundamental problems are not technical but institutional: high non-local funding shares for large projects warp local perceptions of project benefit versus costs, leading to both input errors and political pressure to fund projects. To deal with these issues, the paper outlines two different approaches. The first, termed ‘hubris’, proposes a multi-decade effort to substantially improve model forecasting accuracy over time by monitoring performance and improving data, methods and understanding of travel, but also by deliberately modifying the institutional arrangements that lead to optimism bias. The second, termed ‘humility’, proposes to openly quantify and recognize the inherent uncertainty in travel demand forecasts and deliberately reduce their influence on project decision-making. However to be successful either approach would require monitoring and reporting accuracy, standards for modeling and forecasting, greater model transparency, educational initiatives, coordinated research, strengthened ethics and reduction of non-local funding ratios so that localities have more at stake.     

The visual impact of development in coastal zone areas

Abstract

The focus of this paper is theoretical, as well as methodological. It reviews previous studies of visual impact and reports research by the author on people's evaluation of the appropriateness of different man‐made facilities in different coastal‐area contexts and other environments. In this study, subjects were asked to react to slides developed through the use of landscape models and experimental facilities to simulate the appearance of a building in the landscape, while systematically varying the visual relatedness between the two. Specific interest centered on the variable of congruity vs. contrast between the appearance of the building and its landscape context, manipulated by co‐varying the attributes of color and size to create a five‐point scale of contrast/obtrusiveness. The hypothesis was that judgments of appropriateness, and to a lesser extent judgments of liking, would vary inversely with level of contrast. The role of two further variables, the functional significance of the building in its setting, and the character of the setting itself, was also investigated. The author reviews methodological issues involved where subjects respond to visual stimuli for purposes of judging change in visual quality. These methodological issues include: stimulus‐selection and problems of simulation, choice of response measures, and choice of respondents, and the treatment of individual differences. The author calls for development of standardized scales and indices such as “perceptually‐relevant environmental quality indicators.”     

Motorway signals and the detection of incidents

A mathematical model of automobile trip tours is presented. Within a framework of eight common restrictions on automobile trip making, all travel behavior is assumed random and all of the ways in which tours can be arranged are assumed equally likely. Three probability distributions are derived from the model: (1) the probability that a household makes a given number of tours in a day; (2) the probability that a household makes a given number of trips in a day; and (3) the probability that a tour reaches a given number of destinations. It is shown that the model agrees with similar probability distributions generated from home‐interview data for Milwaukee.     

The dredging dilemma: Economic development and environmental protection in Oakland Harbor

Abstract

Seaport expansion often generates tensions between the national interest in efficient transport and local interests in water quality and habitat preservation. The governing American permitting system, however, establishes an extraordinarily cumbersome, legalistic, and costly method for balancing environmental and economic considerations. A case study of the Port of Oakland illustrates the tendency. For four years, plans to find an environmentally acceptable site for dredged material have been stymied by a sequence of inconclusive regulatory and judicial proceedings. Meanwhile, large container ships can enter and leave Oakland harbor only at high tide, and not fully loaded. Despite the absence of any authoritative determination concerning environmental risks, the port was compelled to accede to progressively more expensive disposal methods. Such “adversarial legalism”; is not unique to the Oakland harbor case, but recurs in other policy spheres. It stems from a governmental structure that fragments decision‐making power among many agencies, that constrains regulatory discretion with legal demands for scientific certainty, and that by allowing agency decisions to be challenged readily in court, encourages legalistic defensiveness and extortion rather than compromise. The article concludes with a discussion of the conditions under which regional planning bodies might overcome these centrifugal tendencies.