Institutional issues in planning for more uncertain futures

Future travel demand has always been difficult to estimate. Recent trends of a slow down or stagnation in traffic growth combined with substantial demographic, economic, and technological shifts further complicate that task. This poses a significant planning challenge given that decision-making is often based on the benefits of infrastructure investments which accrue over periods as long as 60 years. In contrast to the changing ideas around what mobility in the future will look like and the types of demand it may need to service, the practice of forecasting future travel demand remains largely unchanged as do the decision-making processes which flow from this. Alternative approaches to thinking about futures such as scenario planning exist but have had more limited deployment in the transport sector. This paper explores the institutional issues surrounding the purpose, practice and barriers to changing the approaches of forecasting and decision-making through an exploration of the state of practice in the UK drawing on interviews with 23 practitioners. Drawing on Hall’s work on policy change, the research finds that there is a strong policy paradigm built around the relationships between transport investment and traffic growth. This has strengthened since the recession with an increased focus on the relationship between transport and job creation. The forecasting approaches in use today are an important part of a complex decision-making apparatus reflective of specialized policy arenas like transport. Challenges in acknowledging, representing and communicating uncertainty are identified leaving a growing tension between planning visions and planning practice. We conclude by reflecting on events which may stimulate a broader reframing of how we plan for transport futures whilst embracing key uncertainties.

     

Sequential optimization approach for the multi‐class user equilibrium problem in a continuous transportation system

We consider a city region with several facilities that are competing for customers of different classes. Within the city region, the road network is dense, and can be represented as a continuum. Customers are continuously distributed over space, and they choose a facility by considering both the transportation cost and market externalities. More importantly, the model takes into account the different transportation cost functions and market externalities to which different customer classes are subjected. A logit‐type distribution of demand is specified to model the decision‐making process of users' facility choice. We develop a sequential optimization approach to decompose the complex multi‐class and multi‐facility problem into a series of smaller single‐class and single‐facility sub‐problems. An efficient solution algorithm is then proposed to solve the resultant problem. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness and potential applicability of the proposed methodology.     

Application of perceived value model to identify factors affecting passengers' repurchase intentions on city bus: A case of the Taipei metropolitan area

This paper establishes and tests the perceived value model, which is applied to identify the factors affecting the passengers' repurchase intentions on city bus. In this study, perceived value is a trade-off between perceived benefits and perceived costs. And the main part of perceived benefits is service quality. We (1) measured service quality using a multiple-items scale, (2) integrated perceived non-monetary price as a part of perceived costs, and (3) simultaneously incorporated the attractiveness of alternative modes. Data was collected via a questionnaire survey in the Taipei metropolitan area and the model was tested using path analysis performed by LISREL. The results indicate that all causal relationships are statistical significant. Finally, this study concludes by discussing managerial implications and making suggestions for future research.     

A Novel Approach to Vehicle Dynamics using the Theory of a Cosserat Point and its Application to Collision Analyses of Platooning Vehicles

A fully three-dimensional, computationally inexpensive vehicular model is presented. In contrast to traditional rigid body models, the vehicle's sprung mass is modeled as a (nonlinearly) deformable body. The formulation of the equations of motion is based on a continuum theory known as the theory of a Cosserat point. These equations largely preserve the relative simplicity of rigid body dynamics but incorporate deformable features. The ease of computer implementation permits the simultaneous simulation of vehicle and collision dynamics of multiple vehicles and highway objects. In this paper, the theory of a Cosserat point is summarized and its general application to vehicle and collision dynamics is illustrated. A three-dimensional collision algorithm is discussed with emphasis on small closing velocities (negligible residual crush, elastic rebound). The novel model is compared to standard procedures.     

Primary productivity of the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research Area and the Southern Ocean

A major objective of the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research (Palmer LTER) project is to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the various components of the Antarctic marine ecosystem. Phytoplankton production plays a key role in this so-called high nutrient, low chlorophyll environment, and factors that regulate production include those that control cell growth (light, temperature, and nutrients) and those that control cell accumulation rate and hence population growth (water column stability, grazing, and sinking). Sea ice mediates several of these factors and frequently conditions the water column for a spring bloom which is characterized by a pulse of production restricted in both time and space. This study models the spatial and temporal variability of primary production within the Palmer LTER area west of the Antarctic Peninsula and discusses this production in the context of historical data for the Southern Ocean. Primary production for the Southern Ocean and the Palmer LTER area have been computed using both light-pigment production models [Smith, R.C., Bidigare, R.R., Prézelin, B.B., Baker, K.S., Brooks, J.M., 1987. Optical characterization of primary productivity across a coastal front. Mar. Biol. (96), 575–591; Bidigare, R.R., Smith, R.C., Baker, K.S., Marra, J., 1987. Oceanic primary production estimates from measurements of spectral irradiance and pigment concentrations. Global Biogeochem. Cycles (1), 171–186; Morel, A., Berthon, J.F., 1989. Surface pigments, algal biomass profiles and potential production of the euphotic layer—relationships reinvestigated in view of remote-sensing applications. Limnol. Oceanogr. (34), 1545–1562] and an ice edge production model [Nelson, D.M., Smith, W.O., 1986. Phytoplankton bloom dynamics of the western Ross Sea ice edge: II. Mesoscale cycling of nitrogen and silicon. Deep-Sea Res. (33), 1389–1412; Wilson, D.L., Smith, W.O., Nelson, D.M., 1986. Phytoplankton bloom dynamics of the Western Ross Sea ice edge: I. primary productivity and species-specific production. Deep-Sea Res., 33, 1375–1387; Smith, W.O., Nelson, D.M., 1986. Importance of ice edge phytoplankton production in the Southern Ocean. BioScience (36), 251–257]. Chlorophyll concentrations, total photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) and sea ice concentrations were derived from satellite data. These same parameters, in addition to hydrodynamic conditions, have also been determined from shipboard and Palmer Station observations during the LTER program. Model results are compared, sensitivity studies evaluated, and productivity of the Palmer LTER region is discussed in terms of its space time distribution, seasonal and interannual variability, and overall contribution to the marine ecology of the Southern Ocean.     

Underwater noise from maritime sources and impact on marine life

Underwater Sound is essential for marine animal functioning. Sound levels from human sources in the marine environment interfere with sound-mediated behaviour in marine animals when shipping coincides with areas or pathways that are vital for animal populations. The impact of human-generated underwater sound to ecosystem functioning and biodiversity receives increasing attention, although as yet it has not been included in the work of international organisations, such as the IMO. At MEPC 55 a document on ships striking whales was discussed; it was noted that disturbed whale hearing might hamper the recognition of a ship approaching.     

Seasonal variability of the Black Sea chlorophyll-a concentration

The optimal spectral decomposition (OSD) method is used to reconstruct seasonal variability of the Black Sea horizontally averaged chlorophyll-a concentration from data collected during the NATO SfP-971818 Black Sea Project in 1980–1995. During the reconstruction, quality control is conducted to reduce errors caused by measurement accuracy, sampling strategy, and irregular data distribution in space and time. A bi-modal structure with winter/spring (February–March) and fall (September–October) blooms is uniquely detected and accurately documented. The chlorophyll-a enriched zone rises to 15 m depth in winter and June, and deepens to 40 m in April and 35 m in August. The June rise of the chlorophyll-a enriched zone is accompanying by near-continuous reduction of upper layer maximum chlorophyll-a concentration.     

Effects of small-scale turbulence on the growth of two diatoms of different size in a phosphorus-limited medium

The effect of turbulence on the nutrient flux towards osmotrophic cells is predicted to be size dependent. This should translate into growth. We experimentally followed and modelled the growth of two marine diatoms of different size (Thalassiosira pseudonana, 6 μm in diameter and Coscinodiscus sp., ca. 109 μm in diameter) under still water and turbulent conditions, using a shaker table. Experiments were done with phosphorus-limited cultures and lasted for ca. 5 days. Turbulence enhanced the growth of Coscinodiscus sp. in agreement with theory but not the growth of T. pseudonana, which was actually slightly lower under turbulence. At the end of the experiments there were about 1.7 times as many Coscinodiscus sp. cells in the turbulent treatment than in the still treatment, while for T. pseudonana almost the same cell concentration was found in both conditions. In addition, the Coscinodiscus sp. cells growing under still conditions presented a higher specific alkaline phosphatase activity than those growing in turbulence which indicates a higher need for phosphorus in the still cultures. A simple dynamic model, based on Michaelis–Menten nutrient uptake kinetics, needed nearly no optimisation other than using observed initial conditions of phosphate and cell concentrations. The model showed how an increased nutrient flux towards the cells translates non-linearly into cell growth, most likely by affecting the half-saturation constant (K_M). However, since Coscinodiscus sp. experienced significant mortality and cells partially settled to the bottom of the containers, unequivocal support for the size-dependent effect of turbulence on nutrient uptake will require further experiments and more sophisticated modelling. The mechanisms to connect an increased nutrient flux towards cells with population growth and whether this process is size dependent are important in parameterizing the effects of turbulence on marine plankton in coupled physical–biological models.     

Panama Canal And Maritime Industry：An International Perspective

2007年6月13日，巴拿马运河管理局在上海浦东香格里拉大酒店举办“巴拿马海运日”，巴拿马运河管理局国际顾问委员会主席、国际海事组织（IMO）前秘书长威廉·A·奥尼尔先生在开幕仪式上发表了演讲。奥尼尔先生的讲话着重强调海运在当代经济和社会发展中不可替代的巨大作用，集装箱化又是影响最大的因素之一，而且在可持续发展大趋势下，