The implications on willingness to pay of respondents ignoring specific attributes

Individuals processing the information in a stated choice experiment are typically assumed to evaluate each and every attribute offered within and between alternatives, and to choose their most preferred alternative. However, it has always been thought that some attributes are ignored in this process for many reasons, including a coping strategy to handle ones perception of the complexity of the choice task. Nonetheless, analysts typically proceed to estimate discrete choice models as if all attributes have influenced the outcome to some degree. The cognitive processes used to evaluate trade-offs are complex with boundaries often placed on the task to assist the respondent. These boundaries can include prioritising attributes and ignoring specific attributes. In this paper we investigate the implications of bounding the information processing task by attribute elimination through ignoring one or more attributes. Using a sample of car commuters in Sydney we estimate mixed logit models that assume all attributes are candidate contributors, and models that assume certain attributes are ignored, the latter based on supplementary information provided by respondents. We compare the value of travel time savings under the alternative attribute processing regimes. Assuming that all attributes are not ignored and duly processed, leads to estimates of parameters which produce significantly different willingness to pay (WTP) to that obtained when the exclusion rule is invoked.     

Network equilibrium for congested multi‐mode networks with elastic demand

This paper proposes an elastic demand network equilibrium model for networks with transit and walking modes. In Hong Kong, the multi‐mode transit system services over 90% of the total journeys and the demand on it is continuously increasing. Transit and walking modes are related to each other as transit passengers have to walk to and from transit stops. In this paper, the multi‐mode elastic‐demand network equilibrium problem is formulated as a variational inequality problem where the combined mode and route choices are modeled in a hierarchical logit structures and the total travel demand for each origin‐destination pair is explicitly given by an elastic demand function. In addition, the capacity constraint for transit vehicles and the effects of bi‐directional flows on walkways are considered in the proposed model. All these congestion effects are taken into account for modeling the travel choices. A solution algorithm is developed to solve the multi‐mode elastic‐demand network equilibrium model. It is based on a Block Gauss‐Seidel decomposition approach coupled with the method of successive averages. A numerical example is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model and solution algorithm.     

A reliability‐based traffic assignment model for multi‐modal transport network under demand uncertainty

In densely populated and congested urban areas, the travel times in congested multi‐modal transport networks are generally varied and stochastic in practice. These stochastic travel times may be raised from day‐to‐day demand fluctuations and would affect travelers' route and mode choice behaviors according to their different expectations of on‐time arrival. In view of these, this paper presents a reliability‐based user equilibrium traffic assignment model for congested multi‐modal transport networks under demand uncertainty. The stochastic bus frequency due to the unstable travel time of bus route is explicitly considered. By the proposed model, travelers' route and mode choice behaviors are intensively explored. In addition, a stochastic state‐augmented multi‐modal transport network is adopted in this paper to effectively model probable transfers and non‐linear fare structures. A numerical example is given to illustrate the merits of the proposed model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enhanced, multi criteria based site selection to measure mobile source toxic air pollutants

A multi-criteria-based site selection process that was developed for the Las Vegas near-road study is used to select the most appropriate near-road measurement sites in the Detroit area. The study measures particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ?2.5 μm and mobile source air toxic compounds, and to document the rationale for selecting or rejecting specific sites. An application of this multi-criteria decision analysis may be the recent US Environmental Protection Agency rule requiring the siting of NO₂ monitors within 50 m of major roads as well as siting for the measurement of community-wide NO₂ concentrations.     

Assessing economic activity in coastal areas: A shift‐share approach

Abstract

An essential aspect of economic analysis associated with planning efforts is identifying the composition of existing economic activity and understanding historical trends in economic change. The shift‐share model is a useful and inexpensive tool for this purpose. Shift‐share analysis evaluates changes in local economic activities relative to changes in a reference area (usually the state or nation). Economic change is separated into a reference area component, an industry mix component, and a local share component. These measure, respectively, the effect on the local economy due to changes in the reference area, factors specific to the local mix of industries, and the changing competitive position of the local area relative to the reference area.

A shift‐share analysis of Florida's coastal counties reveals that all grew much faster over the 1965–1975 period than did the national economy. This rapid growth is primarily a result of a net shift of economic activity toward the study area relative to the nation. However, a few coastal counties did exhibit a mix of slow‐growing industries. Specific industry results for Florida counties at the eighty‐industry level reveal that many industries showed significant shifts toward Florida's coastal counties. The performance of individual industries in the coastal counties generally exceeded that of the same industries in noncoastal counties.     

How to Retreat: The Necessary Transition from Buyouts to Leasing

Abstract

Moving assets out of vulnerable areas, known as “retreat,” is a necessary but unpopular option when coastal hazards impact land. Most people prefer protection options. Governments and private land owners tend to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach for retreat. This may be because the time for retreat seems some way off, or because protection has not yet been ruled out, or to avoid unwelcome news. This policy void has allowed people to assume that government will offer to “buyout” property on generous terms after coastal hazards inevitably force the owner to relocate. The problem with that assumption is that (a) it is unaffordable as a solution for all at-risk properties and (b) it acts as an incentive to intensify development in locations vulnerable to coastal hazards. It is, in effect, a form of market distortion which promotes maladaptive behavior. We therefore need to retire that assumption by articulating a standard default arrangement for retreat. This essay suggests that government should establish a default position of renting land, rather than acquiring it, once assets are abandoned by private land owners. This provides sufficient leverage to protect the public interest and a level of financial assistance to the relocating land owner, while allowing markets to properly reflect risk and enabling coastal adaptation.     

Test of extensively damaged hybrid ship hull

A hybrid ship hull model made with a steel truss and composite sandwich panels was tested and analyzed with the goal of gaining insight into how well this structural concept holds up after major damage. One of the ideas of the concept was to mount the sandwich panels to the steel truss such that they can be blown out in a controlled fashion to ventilate a large internal blast. The hull should be designed to have sufficient strength for the ship to reach a port safely even after such extensive damage. A 6-m model of such a hybrid ship hull, consisting of a stainless steel truss and 60 composite sandwich panels, was manufactured and mechanically tested. A number of panels were then removed one by one and the hull was retested to the design load after each panel had been removed. The removed panels simulated major damage. After nine panels had been removed, from all the different areas of the hull, it could still carry the design load, although with considerable nonreversible deformations of the hull girder. The hull was eventually loaded to final failure, which occurred at 25% above the design load.