A mixed Bayesian network for two-dimensional decision modeling of departure time and mode choice

The modeling of travel decision making has been a popular topic in transportation planning. Previous studies focused on random-utility discrete choice models and machine learning methods. This paper proposes a new modeling approach that utilizes a mixed Bayesian network (BN) for travel decision inference. The authors use a predetermined BN structure and calculate priori and posterior probability distributions of the decision alternatives based on the observed explanatory variables. As a “utility-free” decision inference method, the BN model releases the linear structure in the utility function but assumes the traffic level of service variables follow multivariate Gaussian distribution conditional on the choice variable. A real-world case study is conducted by using the regional travel survey data for a two-dimensional decision modeling of both departure time choice and travel mode choice. The results indicate that a two-dimensional mixed BN provides better accuracy than decision tree models and nested logit models. In addition, one can derive continuous elasticity with respect to each continuous explanatory variable for sensitivity analysis. This new approach addresses a research gap in probabilistic travel decision making modeling as well as two-dimensional travel decision modeling.     

Sustainability and interactivity between cities and ports: a two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach

Ports and cities are intrinsically linked. Port city, which serves as a link between the local and global economy, is an integration of both urban and port systems. Constrained by different regional structures, port cities have developed various formulations over time. Using a two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach, this paper proposes a new method for measuring the sustainable development of different port city systems. While the previous empirical studies often separate the port system and the urban system, this paper assesses the two systems in an integrated way. Moreover, this paper develops a systematic methodology for measurement of sustainability. Twenty world-leading container port cities are selected for this study using contemporary data. The DEA results display their relative differences in levels of sustainable development, which reveal the effectiveness of the prevailing policies in them. Eventually, recommendations are drawn for other port cities by referring to the best practices.     

考虑螺旋桨体积力的水下机器人水动力特性仿真

为在初步设计时预测ROV的水动力性能,使用CFD技术进行分析,以ROV模型为例,最大程度地保留ROV内部的构件,使模型更加接近真实状况。分别计算ROV在不同工况下的阻力、不同漂角下的横向力和转艏力矩以及添加体积力模型之后的螺旋桨流场状况,很好地模拟出ROV周围的流场,并与已有的试验数据进行对比。结果验证了CFD水动力仿真的可行性和准确性,并还可预测ROV在螺旋桨作用下的进速等,对ROV设计具有实际的参考价值和指导意义。     

Incorporating the extended theory of planned behavior in a school travel mode choice model: a case study of Shaoxing,China

Travel to and from school can have social, economic, and environmental implications for students and their parents. Therefore, understanding school travel mode choice behavior is essential to find policy-oriented approaches to optimizing school travel mode share. Recent research suggests that psychological factors of parents play a significant role in school travel mode choice behavior and the Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model has been used to test the effect of psychological constructs on mode choice behavior. However, little research has used a systematic framework of behavioral theory to organize these psychological factors and investigate their internal relationships. This paper proposes an extended theory of planned behavior (ETPB) to delve into the psychological factors caused by the effects of adults’ cognition and behavioral habits and explores the factors’ relationship paradigm. A theoretical framework of travel mode choice behavior for students in China is constructed. We established the MIMIC model that accommodates latent variables from ETPB. We found that not all the psychological latent variables have significant effects on school travel mode choice behavior, but habit can play an essential role. The results provide theoretical support for demand policies for school travel.     

A Pareto-improving hybrid rationing and pricing policy with multiclass network equilibria

This paper extends the work on Pareto-improving hybrid rationing and pricing policy for general road networks by considering heterogeneous users with different values of time. Mathematical programming models are proposed to find a multiclass Pareto-improving pure road space rationing scheme (MPI-PR) and multiclass hybrid rationing and pricing schemes (MHPI and MHPI-S). A numerical example with a multimodal network is provided for comparing both the efficiency and equity of the three proposed policies. We discover that MHPI-S can achieve the largest reduction in total system delay, MHPI can induce the least spatial inequity and MHPI-S is a progressive policy which is appealing to policy makers. Furthermore, numerical results reveal that different classes of users react differently to the same hybrid policies and multiclass Pareto-improving hybrid schemes yield less delay reduction when compared to their single-class counterparts.     

Effect of Seismic Parameters on the Safety Factor for an Underground Cavern北大核心CSCD

In order to quantitatively evaluate the safety of the surrounding rock of an underground cavern under seis-mic load, a comprehensive evaluation method for the stability of surrounding rock is proposed based on the general safety factor and point safety factor. A calculation method for the general safety factor of a cavern based on the prin-ciple of shear strength reduction of a rock mass is given, the run-through of the plastic zone between the main power-house and main transformer room is presented as a critical criterion for the overall instability of the cavern, and the general safety factor is obtained by searching for the reduction coefficient. A point safety factor calculation method based on the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion is given. The influence of different seismic input parameters on the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions are studied based on an underground power-house cavern of a hydropower station in Southwest China. The results show that the quantitative evaluation method for the stability of the surrounding rock based on the safety factor is feasible and can reflect the general safety de-gree and local safety degree of different positions of the cavern for different working conditions. It is found that the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions decrease with an increase of the ampli-tude and duration of a seismic wave while they increase with an increase of the incident angle; additionally, the low frequency of a seismic wave has a great influence on the cavern while the high frequency has little effect. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

A Delphi analysis on green performance evaluation indices for ports in China

This study identified a set of applicable and practical green performance evaluation indices for Chinese ports using the Delphi technique. The research was conducted by targeting three representative Chinese ports in Eastern China: the Shanghai Port, Ningbo Port, and Qingdao Port. An effective expert panel was structured with direct stakeholders related to green performance, which was based on a sufficient consideration of the unique and the special decision-making system for Chinese ports. Twenty-one green performance indices in six dimensions (i.e. liquid pollution management, air pollution management, noise control, low carbon regulations and energy savings, marine biology preservation, and organization and management) were eventually identified through three rounds of iterations. The identified green performance indices for Chinese ports are highly consistent with the Chinese Government’s environmental policies. Compared with European ports, the green port performance indicators in China are not as comprehensive. The indicators that are strictly consistent with national macro policies and the factors that are more easily seen, heard, and felt were perceived to be more important. From an academic perspective, this study offers a new approach for system establishment and green practice criteria exploration and thus provides a significant basis for further green port studies.     

感应电机矢量控制系统的建模与仿真研究

为了研究异步感应电机矢量控制系统动态性能,利用Matlab/Simulink建立了基于电压空间矢量脉宽调制(SVPWM)的感应电机矢量控制模型,并对电机的启动性能以及负载为阶跃输入情况进行了仿真分析。仿真结果表明所构建的系统模型动态过程符合实际调速系统运动过程。     

基于HHT和BP神经网络的船舶电力系统故障定位

针对船舶电力系统故障难以精确定位的情况,将Hilbert-Huang变换(HHT)和BP神经网络应用于船舶电力系统故障节点定位。首先,采集各节点电流信号,经过EMD分解得到若干IMF分量,对第一个IMF分量进行Hilbert变换得到其瞬时振幅向量。然后,将各节点的瞬时振幅向量之和作为电流信号的特征量输入到带有动量因子的BP神经网络中进行训练,利用训练好的神经网络进行故障节点定位。最后,通过仿真实验验证了所提方法的有效性。     

永磁同步电机直接转矩控制的建模与仿真研究

为了研究永磁同步电机直接转矩控制系统的动态性能,利用Matlab/Simulink建立了永磁同步电机直接转矩控制模型,并对电机的启动性能以及负载为阶跃输入情况进行了仿真分析,仿真结果表明所构建的系统模型动态过程符合实际调速系统运动过程。