Measuring uncertainty in discrete choice travel demand forecasting models

In transportation projects, uncertainty related to the difference between forecast and actual demand is of major interest for the decision-maker, as it can have a substantial influence on the viability of a project. This paper identifies and quantifies discrete choice model uncertainty, which is present in the model parameters and attributes, and determines its impact on risk taking for decision-making applied to a case study of the High-Speed Rail project in Portugal. The methodology includes bootstrapping for the parameter variation, a postulated triangular distribution for the mode-specific input and a probabilistic graphical model for the socio-economic input variation. In comparison to point estimates, the findings for mode shift results in a wider swing in the system, which constitutes valuable information for decision-makers. The methodology, findings and conclusions presented in this study can be generalized to projects involving similar models.     

Centrality indicators as an instrument to evaluate the integration of urban equipment in the area of influence of a rail corridor

The objective of this work is to formulate a structure of procedures to support projects to integrate neighborhoods in the area of influence of railway corridors and the urban facilities around each station. Based on the concept of centrality, formulated mathematically by graph theory and with the support of a geographic information system (GIS), we propose interventions aiming to create a more harmonious urban environment better in tune with sustainable mobility. We highlight the relevance of quantitative approaches in the study of urban concepts to foster integration between transportation and urban development, as well as the potential of their application in various Brazilian metropolises having commuter rail systems that are currently underutilized and in the process of revitalization.     

A simplified model for evaluating tire wear during conceptual design

In the field of vehicle dynamics, commercial software can aid the designer during the conceptual and detailed design phases. Simulations using these tools can quickly provide specific design metrics, such as yaw and lateral velocity, for standard maneuvers. However, it remains challenging to correlate these metrics with empirical quantities that depend on many external parameters and design specifications. This scenario is the case with tire wear, which depends on the frictional work developed by the tire-road contact. In this study, an approach is proposed to estimate the tire-road friction during steady-state longitudinal and cornering maneuvers. Using this approach, a qualitative formula for tire wear evaluation is developed, and conceptual design analyses of cornering maneuvers are performed using simplified vehicle models. The influence of some design parameters such as cornering stiffness, the distance between the axles, and the steer angle ratio between the steering axles for vehicles with two steering axles is evaluated. The proposed methodology allows the designer to predict tire wear using simplified vehicle models during the conceptual design phase.     

Global maritime domain awareness: a sustainable development perspective

The International Maritime Organization defines maritime domain awareness as the effective understanding of any activity that could impact upon the security, safety, economy or environment. The traditional approach to manage it is based on state sovereignty over national territorial waters where authorities exercise their responsibilities within the defined specific area. Lately, new issues of transboundary dimension (i.e. piracy, overfishing, pollution) are changing the high seas from an open space governed by the rule of freedom into a common domain requiring new governance approach to manage its complex international problems. This paper investigates the use of sustainable development methodology to explore governance solutions within the socio-technical domain of maritime awareness. The outcome suggests that the use of sustainable development tools can and should be used to support the development and implementation of cooperative governance models which are more appropriate for creating global maritime domain awareness than the traditional state-centric and sector-based models. A modelling diagram for potential governance framework under International Maritime Organization’s leadership is included.     

Identifying Suitable Sites for Macroalgae Cultivation on the Swedish West Coast

Special attention has been paid to sustainable macroalgae cultivation in Europe. The question on where suitable cultivation areas lie, without conflicting with current marine socio-economic activities and respecting the environment, remains a great challenge. Considering 13 criteria critical to seaweed farming such as depth, shipping traffic, and distance to ports, this paper aimed to identify suitable and sustainable offshore areas on the West Coast of Sweden for the cultivation of the Sugar Kelp, Saccharina latissima. An integrated approach with the tools geographic information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was used to aggregate the criteria by means of Boolean and weighted linear combination (WLC) techniques. The Boolean method singled out 544?km² as suitable, whereas the WLC method indicated 475?km² as highly suitable. Both techniques complement each other in finding optimal sites. Furthermore, the integrated models excelled in providing an overview for effective spatial decision-making that fosters sustainable development of macroalgae cultivations within marine and coastal systems.

• Highlights

• To the authors’ knowledge no study on seaweed aquaculture site selection has been conducted using such a range of criteria with the purpose of including sustainability aspects within a comparative GIS-MCDA.

• The large areas identified on the West Coast of Sweden as suitable highlight the potential of this new industry and the complexity of associated marine spatial planning.

• Boolean and weighted linear combination methods were applied and compared, providing valuable insights in the selection of methods for spatial decision-making support. These insights should support a more sustainable development of macroalgae cultivation in the region, as well as a more resilient marine spatial planning process for blue growth strategies.

     

Neural network model for designing automotive devices using SMD LED

The advantages offered by the electronic component LED (Light Emitting Diode) have resulted in a quick and extensive application of this device in the replacement of incandescent lights. In this combined application, however, the relationship between the design variables and the desired effect or result is very complex and renders it difficult to model using conventional techniques. This paper consists of the development of a technique using artificial neural networks that makes it possible to obtain the luminous intensity values of brake lights using SMD (Surface Mounted Device) LEDs from design data. This technique can be utilized to design any automotive device that uses groups of SMD LEDs. The results of industrial applications using SMD LED are presented to validate the proposed technique.     

Multi‐criteria analysis procedure for sustainable mobility evaluation in urban areas

This paper proposes a procedure to evaluate sustainable mobility in urban areas. A set of indicators according to three dimensions of sustainability, i.e., environment, economics, and social aspects, are proposed to evaluate mobility in urban areas. The sustainable mobility evaluation is based on an Index calculated through a weighted multi‐criteria combination procedure. A group of specialists in Brazil was involved in the development of the Index by defining the weights for the criteria. An application of the methodology in the city of Belo Horizonte, capital of the State of Minas Gerais, with 2.24 million inhabitants, is presented to validate the methodology.     

Using structural equations modeling to unravel the influence of land use patterns on travel behavior of workers in Montreal

This paper addresses the relations between travel behavior and land use patterns using a Structural Equations Modeling (SEM) framework. The proposed model structure draws on two earlier models developed for Lisbon and Seattle which show significant effects of land use patterns on travel behavior. The travel behavior variables included here are multifaceted including commuting distance, car ownership, the amount of mobility by mode (car, transit and non-motorized modes), both in terms of total kilometers travelled and number of trips. The model also includes a travel scheduling variable, which is the total time spent between the first and last trips to reflect daily constraints in time allocation and travel.The modeled land use variables measure the levels of urban concentration and density, diversity, both in terms of types of uses and the mix between jobs and inhabitants/residents, the transport supply levels, transit and road infrastructure, and accessibility indicators. The land use patterns are described both at the residence and employment zones of each individual included in the model by using a factor analysis technique as a data reduction and multicollinearity elimination technique. In order to explicitly account for self selection bias the land use variables are explicitly modeled as functions of socioeconomic attributes of individuals and their households.The results obtained show that people with different socioeconomic characteristics tend to work and live in places of substantially different urban environments. But besides these socioeconomic self-selection effects, land use variables significantly affect travel behavior. More precisely the effects of land use are in great part passed thru variables describing long term decisions like commuting distance, and car ownership. These results point to similar conclusions from the models developed for Lisbon and Seattle and thus give weight to the use of land use policies as tools for changing travel behavior.     

Determinants of Indian sub-continent officer–seafarer retention in the shipping industry

The retention of officer–seafarers within the international shipping industry is a difficult problem facing shipping and ship management companies. One strategic option open to all companies that should improve overall retention is to seek to become an employer of choice by providing an intellectual capital environment attractive to officer–seafarers. This is investigated through a survey of officer–seafarers covering areas where ship management can exercise some control over their working conditions. These cover recognition by their employer and commensurate rewards, organizational culture and structure and building relationships with external parties. Experienced Indian sub-continent officer–seafarers were the sample population resulting in more than 200 valid completions. These were analysed using correlation and regression. Although all hypotheses were in the predicted direction, only four passed the significance test: long-term career prospects, a smooth and fair recruitment process, a better relationship with maritime authorities and an employee-friendly organizational culture. Stepwise regression indicated that only organizational culture had a significant positive effect on intention to remain a seafarer. The items in the organizational culture construct accord with recommendations from the literature on becoming an employer of choice and improving employee retention, providing guidance for attracting and retaining officers.     

Classification of Beach Erosion Vulnerability on the Yucatan Coast

Beach erosion can have important socioeconomic and environmental consequences, particularly in tropical regions where tourism is a significant source of income. Although caused by natural processes, erosion is often aggravated by disorderly anthropogenic modification of the coast and extreme events. In Yucatan, Mexico, increasing urban development and deficient coastal management strategies as well as hurricanes have affected beach stability. This has highlighted the need for adequate coastal planning and policies that ensure the protection of key coastal ecosystems, such as beaches and sand dunes. To address this, a methodology to classify the coast according to its vulnerability is presented in this work. This methodology assumes that morphological features are indicators of beach evolution and the processes driving it and that these can be associated with different levels of vulnerability. The features considered are beach width, dune vegetation, anthropogenic pressure, and shoreline orientation, which were analyzed through aerial images and a multicriteria evaluation. It was observed that the most vulnerable areas are found near the most developed parts of the coast, where narrow beaches with little dune vegetation dominate. It is expected that this index will be of use to coastal planners and decision makers, particularly in the identification of critical zones.