Development of early warning index in Korean shipping industry by using signal approach

ABSTRACT

The study aims to investigate and prevent shipping companies’ insolvency that can be derived from depressed market sentiment in the shipping industry. For this purpose, the paper focuses on developing an early warning index. The main factors that contribute to the change in the shipping industry are derived. Sixty independent variables were accounted in the development of early warning index, some of which are shipping, shipbuilding, and finance. Suggestions drew from the result of early warning index are described as below. Firstly, the results of a signal approach towards independent variables showed lowest the signal error value in newbuilding price of containership, bunker price, Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) commodity index, and order book of bulkship. These indicators have proven to be a high level of variation factor during shipping markets’ crisis. Secondly, the early warning index confirmed that it preceded by 6 months compared to probability of default. Thirdly, in order to validate the accuracy of the early warning index, the adequacy of the model was tested using a mean square error and time lag correlations. As a result of the verification, value proved to be at a high level of compliance at 0.097.     

基于边界元和爆震分析韩国天安舰水下爆炸事件(英文)

On March 26,2010 an underwater explosion(UWE)led to the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan.The official Multinational Civilian-Military Joint Investigation Group(MCMJIG)report concluded that the cause of the underwater explosion was a 250 kg net explosive weight(NEW)detonation at a depth of 6 9 m from a DPRK"CHT-02D"torpedo.Kim and Gitterman(2012a)determined the NEW and seismic magnitude as 136 kg at a depth of approximately 8m and 2.04,respectively using basic hydrodynamics based on theoretical and experimental methods as well as spectral analysis and seismic methods.The purpose of this study was to clarify the cause of the UWE via more detailed methods using bubble dynamics and simulation of propellers as well as forensic seismology.Regarding the observed bubble pulse period of 0.990 s,0.976 s and 1.030 s were found in case of a 136NEW at a detonation depth of 8 m using the boundary element method(BEM)and 3D bubble shape simulations derived for a 136kg NEW detonation at a depth of 8 m approximately 5 m portside from the hull centerline.Here we show through analytical equations,models and 3D bubble shape simulations that the most probable cause of this underwater explosion was a 136 kg NEW detonation at a depth of 8m attributable to a ROK littoral"land control"mine(LCM).     

The estimation of a time-dependent OD trip table with vehicle trajectory samples

Abstract

In this paper we discuss a dynamic origin–destination (OD) estimation problem that has been used for identifying time-dependent travel demand on a road network. Even though a dynamic OD table is an indispensable data input for executing a dynamic traffic assignment, it is difficult to construct using the conventional OD construction method such as the four-step model. For this reason, a direct estimation method based on field traffic data such as link traffic counts has been used. However, the method does not account for a logical relationship between a travel demand pattern and socioeconomic attributes. In addition, the OD estimation method cannot guarantee the reliability of estimated results since the OD estimation problem has a property named the ‘underdetermined problem.’ In order to overcome such a problem, the method developed in this paper makes use of vehicle trajectory samples with link traffic counts. The new method is applied to numerical examples and shows promising capability for identifying a temporal and spatial travel demand pattern.     

Robust design optimization of the dynamic responses of a tracked vehicle system

This paper presents the robust design optimization of the dynamic responses of a heavy military tracked vehicle system. The tracked vehicle model addressed in this study has 954 degrees of freedom and consists of 189 bodies in total: 37 bodies for the chassis, such as sprockets, road wheels, road arms, etc.; 76 track link bodies for each track subsystem; 36 revolute joints; and 152 bushing elements. The design objectives were to minimize the maximum vertical acceleration of the hull and its variance while satisfying the wheel travel constraints for torsion bars and the hydro-pneumatic suspension units within ±1σ ranges. To avoid the difficulty of the design sensitivity analysis and to overcome the numerical noise, a progressive meta-model technique was employed in the optimization process. First, space-filling methods were used to determine the minimum number of sample points. Second, the simultaneous kriging method was used to construct the initial meta-models, and the augmented Lagrange multiplier (ALM) method was then used to solve the robust design problems of the meta-models. Third, the new design results were added to the analysis results for the initial sample points, and the meta-models were updated automatically. Next, the optimizer resolved the robust design problems of the updated meta-models. These processes were repeated until the convergence tolerances were satisfied. The robust design optimization of the tracked vehicle system, with 11 random design variables, was solved in only 26 analyses, including 12 analyses for the initial meta-models and 14 analyses added during the iterative optimization process.     

Properties of roadway particles from interaction between the tire and road pavement

A large fraction of urban PM₁₀ concentrations is due to non-exhaust traffic emissions, including road dust, particles from tire/road interface, and brake lining particles. Although potential health and environmental impacts associated with tire wear debris have increased, few environmentally and biologically relevant studies of actual tire wear debris have been conducted. Tire wear particles (TWP) are released from the tire tread as a result of the interaction between the tire and the pavement. Roadway particles (RP), meanwhile, are particles on roads composed of a mixture of elements from tires, pavement, fuels, brakes, environmental dust, and the atmosphere. The main objective of the present study is to identify the contribution of tires to the generation of RP and to assess the potential environmental and health impacts of this contribution. First, a mobile measurement system was constructed and used to measure the RP on asphalt roads according to vehicle speed. The equipment of the mobile system provides PM₁₀ concentration by DustTrak DRX, and mass and number size distribution of fine and ultrafine particles by a fast mobility particle sizer (FMPS) and an aerosol particle sizer (APS). The dependence of RP mass and particle number concentration on vehicle speed was observed. It was also found that many particles were generated by rapid deceleration of the vehicle.     

Mesh generation and hysteretic loss prediction of 3-D periodic patterned tire

This paper is concerned with the numerical prediction of the hysteretic loss-induced rolling resistance of 3-D periodic patterned tire. Elastomeric rubber compounds of rolling tire exhibit the hysteretic loss owing to the phase difference between stress- and strain-time responses. By virtue of this physical characteristic, the rolling resistance is considered as a pseudo-force resisting the tire rolling. The 3-D periodic patterned tire model is constructed by copying an 1-sector mesh in the circumferential direction, and strain cycles of each strain component are approximated by 3-D static tire contact analysis. According to the principal value of half strain amplitudes, the hysteretic loss is calculated in terms of the amplitude of the maximum principal strain and the loss modulus of rubber compound. The numerical results of 3-D periodic patterned tire are justified with the experimental data and compared with those of 3-D smooth tire.     

Design of Optimal Four-Wheel Steering System

Optimal design of the four wheel steering (4WS) system of the ground vehicle is studied. 4WS vehicles with the optimal control scheme are considered first. General formulation of the optimal control law is developed based on the linear quadratic regulator theory. The vehicle speed function (VSF) based 4WS vehicle with a simple feedback controller is considered as a special case of the optimal system. Two new designs of the VSF 4WS system are proposed and their performances are compared with the optimal 4WS systems and the existing VSF 4WS system. The first system is designed for the maximum stability while the second system is designed to emulate the response of the optimal 4WS vehicle. Advantages of the new VSF designs are discussed.     

The role of congestion of transportation networks in urban location and travel choices

Congestion of urban transportation systems results from an equilibrium of location and travel choices with generalized travel costs which increase with vehicle flows as well as other factors. The use of network equilibrium concepts in analyzing urban policies and evaluating alternative plans is examined. Issues arising in the use of network equilibrium models are described, and formulations of urban network prediction and design models are explored.     

Vehicle Dynamic Analysis and Evaluation of Continuously Controlled Semi-Active Suspensions Using Hardware-in-the-loop Simulation

A semi-active suspension system with continuously variable damper is greatly expected to be used mainly in the future as a high-performance suspension system due to its cost-effectiveness, light weight, and low energy consumption. In this paper, to develop a suitable control logic for the semi-active suspension system, the hardware-in-the-loop simulation is performed for the experimental continuously variable damper combined with a quarter-car model, and the simulation results are compared for passive, on/off controlled, and continuously controlled dampers in the aspects of ride comfort and driving safety, assuming each damper to be installed on the vehicle.     

Automatic two-dimensional layout using a rule-based heuristic algorithm

 Efficient layout strategies are introduced for automatic nesting using a rule-based heuristic approach to improve the layout efficiency. Since a large portion of the complexity of the parts layout problem results from the overlapping computation, geometric redesign techniques are also suggested to reduce the complexity of the problem for a fast and reliable means of performing overlapping computation. A new heuristic sliding technique is developed to find a near-optimum layout location from all the feasible arrangements in such a manner that two or more arbitrary parts do not overlap or intersect. An identification method with a pivoting point is suggested to calculate the boundary of the overlap region in a fast computation time-frame. Resource plate clipping using virtual memory, based on a polygon clipping algorithm, is also proposed as a technique to reduce the geometric conditions of the resource plate and the overlap computation time by updating a new stock boundary of the resource plate for the layout space of the next part after each part is placed. The aim of this article is to develop a rule-based heuristic nesting system to achieve a new automatic layout on the AutoCAD system. For this implementation, some nesting examples are demonstrated. A rule-based heuristic approach can be desirable in terms of the layout efficiency and considering the computational time for nesting problems, and is proposed as a real-time layout simulation method in the industrial field. Received: October 7, 2002 / Accepted: March 27, 2003 RID="*"