中国出口集装箱运输市场月评(2007-02-21-2007-03-20)

受农历新年影响,春节期间中国出口集装箱运输市场货量明显萎缩,尽管节后逐渐恢复,但各航线恢复情况不一,市场运价走势存在差异。3月16日,上海航运交易所发布的中国出口集装箱综合运价指数为1026．07点,较上月同期基本持平:上海地区出口集装箱运价指数为1025．79点,较上月同期微涨1．5%。     

提速道岔破底清筛作业的施工方法

人工破底清筛是目前解决提速道岔道床板结、翻浆冒泥和弹性不足等问题的主要施工方法。文章介绍提速道岔破底清筛作业的施工方法,如劳力组织、机具配备、慢行准备作业以及封锁施工作业工序、限速条件等。     

Error quantification of a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part 2. Chlorophyll-a, nutrients and SPM

Marine systems models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, but far too little attention has been paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to ecosystem processes. Here we describe the application of summary error statistics to a complex 3D model (POLCOMS-ERSEM) run for the period 1988–1989 in the southern North Sea utilising information from the North Sea Project, which collected a wealth of observational data. We demonstrate that to understand model data misfit and the mechanisms creating errors, we need to use a hierarchy of techniques, including simple correlations, model bias, model efficiency, binary discriminator analysis and the distribution of model errors to assess model errors spatially and temporally. We also demonstrate that a linear cost function is an inappropriate measure of misfit. This analysis indicates that the model has some skill for all variables analysed. A summary plot of model performance indicates that model performance deteriorates as we move through the ecosystem from the physics, to the nutrients and plankton.     

关于铁路房地产业发展趋势的几点思考

作为铁路多元产业重要组成部分的铁路房地产业,按照"抓大市场、做小市场"的经营思路,面向市场,拓展工程建设、经营开发、房屋租赁、物业服务等市场,不断增强从市场获取收益的能力。总结铁路房地产的发展历程,研究其发展趋势,提出发展策略,充分利用铁路资源积累财富、创造品牌,更好地推进铁路主辅分离、辅业改制,促进铁路多元产业的发展。     

160 km/h高速货车转向架的研制

根据高速货车转向架的运用要求和运用条件,确定了160km/h高速货车转向架的主要技术参数;提出了整体焊接构架式有摇枕转向架的结构形式,介绍了其主体结构情况;结合转向架静强度和疲劳试验、线路动力学试验结果,得出了转向架设计是较为成功的结论。     

工程项目管理模式的比较研究

本文在分析了WDD-B模式的应用机会和可行条件后,对PMC模式、NC模式、Partnering模式和WDD-B模式做了相互比较,在此基础上,提出了WDD-B Partnering工程项目管理组合模式。     

Hybrid neural network model for history-dependent automotive shock absorbers

The method of numerical multi-body simulation is an often used and well-understood development tool in the automotive industry. In order to reproduce the ride comfort or handling behaviour of vehicles, mathematical models have to be built up. To achieve accurate simulation results, highly detailed component models are required. However, the formulation of appropriate physically-based model equations of complex automotive components (e.g. air springs, shock absorbers, rubber bearings, tyres, etc.) can be very difficult. To handle this, empirical modelling methods have been developed. Simple algebraic equations are used to describe complex system behaviour. This simplification is very effective, although it largely ignores the natural laws of mechanics and thermodynamics but is still capable to predict the component response. This article illustrates how to take advantage of this approach in numerical simulations. We describe the development of a hybrid automotive shock absorber model based on both spline and neural network (NN) approaches. By combining these different approaches, an accurate model is achieved without loss of variability. Non-isothermal laboratory force-displacement measurements of an automotive shock absorber are being used to estimate the parameters of the NN. As shown, the model replicates the measured data with sufficient accuracy, especially the hysteresis. Finally, we present a set of quarter-car simulations with a built-in hybrid NN shock absorber.     

Logistical restructuring and road freight traffic growth

The forecasting of road freight traffic has relied heavily on the close correlation between GDP and road tonne-kilometers. It has not been rooted in an understanding of the causes of freight traffic growth. The research reported in this paper has investigated this process of traffic growth in two ways: first, by analysing official data on the production, consumption and movement of food and drink products, and second, by conducting a survey of the changing freight transport requirements of 88 large British-based manufacturers.The analysis of secondary data shows how, in the food and drink sector, the relationship between the real value of output and road vehicle-kms hinges on four key parameters: value density, handling factor, average length of haul and consignment size. An attempt is made to explain variations in these parameters.The survey of manufacturers suggests that the growth of lorry traffic is the net result of a complex interaction between factors operating at four levels of logistical management: strategic planning of logistical systems, choice of suppliers and distributors, scheduling of product flow and the management of transport resources. Changes in the frequency and scheduling of freight deliveries in response to tightening customer service requirements and just-in-time management appear to have become a more prevalent cause of freight traffic growth than the physical restructuring of logistical systems. Manufacturers anticipate that their road freight demand will broadly increase in line with sales and be largely unaffected by road transport cost increases at the levels currently proposed. The paper concludes by examining their likely reactions to a much sharper increase in the cost of road freight movement.     

美国的城市交通规划

介绍了今后几十年中将影响城市交通规划的一些重要趋势，讨论了今后交通规划者在十个领域可能面临的挑战。