Using value of statistical life for the ex ante evaluation of transport policy options: a discussion based on ethical theory

This paper aims to discuss a number of questions that are highly important for the ex ante evaluation of the safety impacts of transport policy options, from the perspective of ethical theory: (1) Is it morally OK to express prevention on acceptance of fatalities or risks in monetary terms? (2) How useful is the concept of the value of a statistical life (VOSL) for ex ante evaluations of transport policy options? (3) What are the pros and cons of pricing protection of lives or prevention of risks in ex ante evaluations? (4) Which methods are available for expressing (protection of) human lives in monetary terms, and what are the main related methodological discussions? (5) Are all safety-related costs generally included in ex ante evaluations of the safety impacts of transport policy options, and if not: what is the relevance of excluded costs categories from an ethical perspective? (6) How important is the distribution of safety effects from an ethical perspective? The answer to the first question highly depends on the ethical theory that is used. With respect to question 2 we think that the VOSL is a useful concept, but that its application is not straightforward, for several reasons. Thirdly we think that probably pricing safety improves the quality of decision making, but to the best of our knowledge there is no research to underpin this expectation. The answer to question 4 is that several methods exist to estimate the value of a statistical life (VOSL), willingness-to-pay (WTP) methods being the most common category of methods. However, several methodological issues arise that make estimates of VOSL less straightforward. With respect to question 5 we conclude that behaviour-related avoidance costs are often overlooked and that these costs are relevant from an ethical perspective because the freedom to move and the freedom to participate in activities are challenged. Finally the answer to question 6 is that from an ethical perspective, in terms of the evaluation of policy measures, it might matter which groups of the population are the victims of the transport system, or are at risk. Egalitarian theories as well as sufficientarianism are useful theories to discuss distribution effects. Different theories conclude differently.     

The effect of work-related factors on the bicycle commute mode choice in the Netherlands

Increasing the number of people cycling to work brings a number of benefits: it can lead to reductions in air pollution and traffic jams, and increases people’s physical activity levels. We investigated the extent to which work-related factors influence (1) whether an individual decides to cycle to work, and (2) whether an individual cycles to work every day. It is anticipated that the office culture and colleagues’ and employers’ attitudes would significantly influence both decisions. These factors are expected to impact the provision of cycling facilities and financial compensation schemes in the workplace. We conducted an Internet survey in 4 Dutch municipalities, gathering data from over 4,000 respondents. The results suggest that the following factors increase the likelihood of being a commuter cyclist: having a positive attitude towards cycling; colleagues’ expectations that an individual will cycle to work; the presence of bicycle storage inside; having access to clothes changing facilities; and needing a bicycle during office hours. The presence of facilities for other transport modes, an increase in the commute distance, and the need to transport goods, in turn, reduces the chance that an individual will cycle. Cycling frequency is negatively affected, meanwhile, by an increase in commute distance, a free public transport pass or car parking provided by the employer. These results indicate that an individual’s working situation affects the commuting cycling behaviour. The findings also indicate that (partly) different variables influence an individual’s decision to cycle to work, and their decision to cycle every day.     

The treatment of traffic in the Dutch environmental outlooks: the role of science in policy making and policy evaluation

The Dutch National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection publishes Environmental Outlooks in which 25‐year projections are made. These Outlooks quantifying the environmental problems, form the scientific basis for Dutch environmental policy. Traffic and transport is one of the main sectors causing environmental problems. The emissions and energy use of all relevant categories (road traffic, non‐road traffic) are based on model simulations with models. This paper describes the main models used.

If present policy is implemented only a minority of the environmental targets will be met.

If a sustainable transport system for the Netherlands means a large reducton in CO₂ emissions and energy use after 2010 a stronger emphasis on both technical and non‐technical measures (such as land‐use planning combined with public transport improvements) for the period until 2010 is needed than proposed in the Second Transport Structure Plan, unless a sustainable energy source becomes available.     

Multimodal traveling and its impact on urban transit network design

Multimodal trip making, that is trips using a combination of several modes between origin and destination, is expected to be beneficial to society and might offer advantages to the traveler as well. This article looks at some of the implications of multi‐modality in trip making for the design of urban transit systems since these play an important role in multi‐modal transportation systems. In this respect, the article looks at the strategic design characteristics of urban transit networks, that is line density, stop density and service frequencies for the case of multimodal access to urban transit networks and for hierarchical network structures in urban transit systems. The analyses show that multimodal access does not require alternative network structures. For hierarchical network structures it is concluded that these are primarily determined by the hierarchy in demand densities and thus by hierarchy in urban structures.     

Strategic beliefs of port authorities

Over the last decade, insights from the strategic management discipline have increasingly been applied to ports. A review of literature shows that in the analysis of port authority strategy, mainly outside-in approaches are applied. This paper adds to the emerging understanding of the port authority’s strategy by applying a cognitive perspective. Specifically, the strategic cognition of firms’ executives is one of the explanatory variables behind firms’ strategic decisions. Furthermore, cognitions are influenced by the organisational contexts in which port authority executives have worked. As a result, managerial “mental maps’ may vary across industry contexts and over time. This research investigates the strategic cognition of a global set of port authority executives through a survey-based instrument. The results show that, to a large extent, PAs resemble “regular” for-profit companies, but that they possess some specific beliefs that distinguish them from “regular” companies.     

When strike comes to town… anticipated and actual behavioural reactions to a one-day,pre-announced,complete rail strike in the Netherlands

We conducted secondary analysis on data collected among rail users, days before and after a national rail strike in the Netherlands. Our aim was to compare anticipated and actual behavioural reactions to the rail strike, investigate associations with traveller and trip characteristics, and perceived behavioural control and satisfaction with the chosen alternative. Forty-four percent of the people who had anticipated to travel by train on the day of the strike abandoned their trip, 24% switched to car as driver, 14% switched to another mode (as passenger), 18% stayed with the train and rescheduled the planned activity to another day. Almost half of people who had anticipated travelling by car expected to change behaviour as well. Multinomial logistic regression showed low preference for car among rail users. Considerable marginal effects were found for several variables, e.g.: young people and females were less likely to switch to car; short and middle distance trips were less likely abandoned or switched to another day; commute and business trips were more likely done by car, and business trips less likely cancelled. Despite high levels of perceived behavioural control and satisfaction with the chosen alternative, permanent modal shift as result of this strike is not expected.     

Multi‐criteria analysis for evaluating the impacts of intelligent speed adaptation

Road safety is a policy priority due to the high casualties and costs associated with road accidents. Since speed is a major cause of road accidents, in‐vehicle speed limiters or Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA), seems a promising solution. ISA implementation, however, is hindered by large uncertainties, for example about the impacts of ISA, the way users might respond to ISA, and the relationship between speed and accidents. Traditional Multi‐Criteria Analysis (MCA) has limitations in handling these uncertainties. We present an MCA approach based on exploratory modeling, which uses computational experiments to explore the multiple outcomes of ISA policies (safety, emissions, throughput, and cost) across a range of future demand scenarios, functional relationships for performance criteria, and user responses to ISA. As an illustration, by testing the impacts of different ISA penetration levels on two driver groups, we show that when compliance with ISA is expected to be low, a policy aimed only at novice drivers outperforms other ISA policies on safety improvement.     

Low-aspect ratio appendages for wind-assisted ships

Journal of Marine Science and Technology - Wind propulsion for commercial ships has been identified as a key component in the energy transition for the maritime industry. The sailing hybrid ship...